by Kent Sterling
With unofficial word of Brett Favre’s latest August retirement, it’s a good time to take a look at Peyton Manning as a threat to Favre’s NFL records. Favre holds virtually every meaningful quarterback record, and Manning is the only active player with any chance of catching him.
Manning opens the season at 34, but coming off his fourth NFL MVP, and is still playing at an outrageously productive level. While many QBs see a diminishing return on statistics as they enter their mid-30s, Manning has never relied on running or speed as he has excelled. He has also avoided major injury and hasn’t been hit as much as other quarterbacks with similar mileage. If Manning can produce at the same level he has enjoyed through his first 12 seasons, how long will it take for Manning to catch Favre?
Pass Attempts
We start with pass attempts, where Manning opens the season seventh all-time with 6,531.
He has averaged 544.25 per season. If he meets his average, Manning will finish this season fourth all-time, and will pass John Elway for third place in week seven of the 2011 season, but is 3,280 behind Favre right now. Manning will get there, if he doesn’t miss any time and maintains his prolific pace, during the first quarter of the first game of the 2016 season. Manning will be 40.
Completions
Manning is already in third with 4,232, roughly two seasons behind Dan Marino in second with 4,967. Favre cleared Marino by more than 1,000 with 6,083. Manning completes a hair more than 22 passes per game. At that pace, Manning will eclipse Favre during the fourth quarter in the week four game of the 2015 season at the age of 38.
Passing Yards
Fourth overall is where Manning opens the 2010 season, only 1,347 yards behind Elway – five or six games away. He’s 19,201 yards behind Favre. To put that number in perspective, Daryle Lamonica is 95th all-time in NFL passing yards with 19,154, so Manning needs to eclipse a top 100 all-time passing career from the age of 34-forward to catch Favre. Averaging 261.08 yards per game, Manning will get there in just 73 games – or the tenth week of the 2014 season.
Passing Touchdowns
Third place all-time is where Manning begins the 2010 season at 366 – 54 TDs behind Dan Marino and 131 behind Favre. He averages 1.91 per game. At that pace, Manning will pass Favre in the third quarter of the fifth game of the 2014 season at the age of 38.
Interceptions
This is where Favre’s legacy is safe, unless Manning develops glaucoma or cataracts. Manning is 136 picks behind Favre, and at a pace of .942 interceptions per game, it will take until the first game of the 2019 season for Manning to get to the top of that pack. He will be 43 years old, and likely hunting quail in bayou country, not receivers in the heartland.
Sacks
Not only will Manning never top this list (Elway is the all-time leader with 516), he will never even catch his Dad. Peyton has been sacked a total of 215 times – an average of 1.12 times per game. To get to Elway, Manning would need to play until he’s 51 years old (although likely less because in his late 40s Manning’s mobility would be severely limited by the same unpleasant aches and pains that keep me from moving with anything resembling agility on the tennis court). To get to Archie Manning’s 10th ranked total of 396, Peyton will need to play into the 2020 season.
Games Started
Manning currently ranks 78th among all players with 192 games started, and he will start moving up this list with some speed during the next two years, if he stays healthy. By the end of this year, he’ll make it into the 40s, and the 20s during the 2011 season. For Manning to get to second ranked Favre, he will need six years. When Peyton ambles on to the field to lead the Colts offense during the 14th game of the 2015 season, he will pass Favre. If Manning can find the juice to play at the age 40, he will break the all-time record held by Bruce Matthews during the fifth week of the 2016 season.
Whatever happens from this point forward, Peyton Manning is a first ballot NFL Hall of Famer, and has served as a great role model for kids nationally, but in particular in central Indiana. His work ethic is unmatched, and that the hardest working guy is also the best is a lesson that resonates.
Watching Manning is very similar to watching Michael Jordan or Barry Bonds. At the time we watched those two singular athletes, it was obvious they were playing a different game.
Of course, this is all moot and the dates get pushed back if Favre returns.
By the way, I was unaware that Mike Chappell provided very similar information this morning in the Star. I read his piece online about the first time Bill Polian watched Favre play, but did not see the timeline on several passing records that Favre holds until reading the paper version at lunch.
Because I did the work to figure out virtually the same stuff contained in Mike’s piece prior to seeing it, I kept it in there. I cyphered some other records as well.
I’ve always been a fan of Mike’s work and would never lift it for my own use without sourcing his work. I may be an idiot, but I’m not a thief.
It is highly probably that Favre will own that sack record by the end of this year.
One more year of Favre doing well, and you can bump your predictions another year. A lockout in 2011 is possible which would be a one-two punch that would make Manning’s goal of obtaining ANY of these records very difficult unless he plays until he is 42-43 which I doubt very much.
When one looks at the fact of how few times Manning was sacked, it is no wonder why he is able to obtain his numbers. Make no mistake about it, he’s a great QB though.
Another record he could get fairly easy is the most wins by a QB which is currently held by Favre.
Part of Manning’s greatness is that he avoids sacks. It’s not that he is fortunate because he doesn’t get sacked. His skill in reading defenses quickly and accurately, and moving those big feet quickly in the pocket, keeps him from taking hits.
He is great at reading defenses and his release is lightning quick. He makes good decisions (for the most part) and knows when to toss the ball away.
I don’t think he needs to evade many tackles unlike Favre.
How long do you think Manning will be playing? It looks like his abilities are as good as ever, but from what I understand these abilities tend to fade quickly at the QB position. Favre and Manning can both certainly be the exception to that kind of rule. They both have broken the old rule book and defined a new one.
No doubt we are blessed to be living when these two greats took the field. I don’t see these records being broken for 20 years plus.
theres no doubt favre is the greatest of all time no one has a chance except peyton but i dont see it happining
If the NFL expands its schedule to 18 games, he will pass Favre at the end of the 2015 season at the age of 39.
favre consecutive starting streak came to an end tonight mon. dec.13 2010 from a shoulder injury he sufferd last week against the bills i hope he gets to play a least one more game before he steps down for good favre thanks for all the fun excitement and life lessons you taught us about getting up when you think you cant never quiting and perseverance through lifes ups and downs THANK YOU BRET YOURE THE BEST GOD BLESS AND GOOD LUCK YOURE FANS