by Kent Sterling
I believe, based upon the mauling two weeks ago, the Colts will hammer the Chiefs. Offenses don’t suddenly figure out how to attack a solid defense, but the Chiefs are going to empty the cupboard to try. The deal will be done tomorrow, and all this guesswork will be of no value, but it is fun to compile and share.
The Chiefs have had a tough road in the postseason over the past 20 years, as the following fun facts will attest:
- The Chiefs have posted double digit wins five times in the last 20 regular seasons, but have won zero playoff games.
- Inculding Andy Reid this season, five different Chiefs head coaches have qualified for the playoffs exactly once each (this counts the last of the seven times Marty Schottenheimer coached the Chiefs into the postseason).
- The last quarterback to win a postseason game for the Chiefs was the great Joe Montana, which was played 12 days short of 20 years ago tomorrow.
- Since the last season the Chiefs won a playoff game, six quarterbacks have led the Chiefs during the six seasons they have qualified for the playoffs, and have crapped out each time – Montana, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Brock Huard, and Matt Cassell. Alex Smith would be – at least temporarily – the seventh one-bulleted gunslinger.
- In six of the seven connective postseason losses, the Chiefs have scored between 7 and 13 points. They lost 38-31 to the Colts to end their 2003 season.
- The Colts have been the team to end the Chiefs postseason hopes in three of their last seven trips.
- The combined scores of the seven losses – 172-83.
- Over the last five playoff losses, five different Chiefs place-kickers have made only 2-8 field goal attempts.
- Andy Reid has a three game losing streak in the postseason himself – losing 32-25 in the NFC Championship to the Cardinals in 2008, 34-14 to the Cowboys in the wild card round in 2009, and 21-16 to the Packers in the wild card round in 2010.
- The won/loss record of the teams the Chiefs have beaten is a combined 58-116.
- The won/loss record of the teams they lost to is a combined 55-25.
- After winning their first nine games, the Chiefs finished their schedule 2-5.
- The only team to beat the Chiefs by more than 10 points was the Colts – 23-7 in Week 16.
- In games where the Chiefs forced two or more turnovers, they are 9-1.
- In games where the Chiefs have forced one or no turnovers, they are 2-4.
- When the Colts grab two or more turnovers, they are 9-0.
- The Colts are 1-1 when turning the ball over two or more times.
- The Colts 14 turnovers are the least in the NFL, and minus the aberrational contest against the Rams, they have only tuned it over nine times in 15 games.
- When Andrew Luck throws for at least one TD and is not picked, the Colts are 6-1, the lone loss coming against the bengals when Luck threw four TD passes without an interception.
- When Donald Brown carries the ball for 15 of fewer yards, the Colts are 0-4.
What does all that mean? Turnovers are pretty damned important, and whether Lin Elliott, Pete Stoyakovich, Morten Anderson and Lawrence Tynes missed field goals back in the day has no meaning at all.
I’m rarely a confident prognosticator, but I feel incredibly confident about the Colts beating the Chiefs tomorrow.