Author Archives: Kent Sterling
Colts path to the perfect offseason – needs, solutions, and opportunities!
Chris Ballard will be smiling all draft weekend long if the “Kent Sterling Plan” comes to fruition!
The Indianapolis Colts have holes to plug this offseason. Carson Wentz was wrangled from the Philadelphia Eagles without ponying up a first rounder in 2021, so the Colts still have plenty of assets to utilize as they try to put together the perfect offseason and build a championship roster.
Here are the Colts needs:
Left Tackle – With Anthony Castonzo‘s retirement, left tackle became a must fill position of immediate and dire need for the Indianapolis Colts. Right behind quarterback, the Colts need to hit a home run with their move to solve the riddle of the left tackle.
Wide receiver – This has been an annoyance since Reggie Wayne‘s retirement after the 2014 season. The Colts tried to flank T.Y. Hilton with a variety of receivers over the last six seasons. Phillip Dorsett was a first round flop. Donte Moncrief came and went after being taken in the third round. Andre Johnson and Devin Funchess were failed free agent plug and play vets. Michael Pittman appears to be a keeper after being taken #34 in last year’s draft. Hilton is now a free agent.
Edge rush – an area that was not nearly what it could have been last year, and really hasn’t been a source of great strength since Robert Mathis played out of his mind in 2013 with an incredible 19 1/2 sacks. Justin Houston and Denico Autry were adequate with eight and 7 1/12 sacks respectively, but a lack of an explosive rush exposed the cornerbacks.
Cornerback(s) – Almost every NFL team cites cornerback as a need, but after cobbling together a competent if unspectacular unit last year, the Colts may have some heavy lifting to do to fill spots at corner. Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie are free agents, while Rok Ya-Sin and Kenny Moore return. Moore was quite good last season. Ya-Sin on the other hand was atrocious.
Tight end is a position the Colts would like to improve, although they got great productivity and protection out of Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Trey Burton. Alie-Cox is a restricted free agent, and the Colts would love to have his giant hands back.
How can they address all those needs? With Carson Wentz in place as a low risk, high ceiling replacement for Philip Rivers at quarterback, the Colts will turn their attention first to left tackle.
The hope was that Castonzo would play one more season. The Colts then draft an heir apparent, who could provide depth while learning the rope from Castonzo. That ship sailed when Castonzo walked away from the final year of his contract worth $16 million, but that doesn’t mean the plan should be scuttled.
Unless the Colts take the unusual step to slide generational left guard Quenton Nelson outside, their starting left tackle is not on the current roster – nor is a reliable backup. If Ballard plays his cards right, the plan as it was developed for Castonzo’s eventual retirement can move forward.
If Nelson moves three feet left and retain his dominance, that would be a perfect solution. Danny Pinter becomes the left guard, and all is right with the world without the expense of signing a free agent, taking a shot at a guy at #21, or trading to acquire a left tackle as the Colts did last year for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. General manager Chris Ballard could then go about the business of plugging other holes – cornerback, receiver, tight end, and edge rusher (not in that order).
But if Nelson can’t be the guy, Ballard can fall back on the original blue print. He would just need to find a replacement for Castonzo. There just happens to be one available, and he would likely be an upgrade.
Teams are loathe to allow a quality starting left tackles to leave as free agents, so the question that Ballard needs to first answer when considering spending significant cash and cap space on a free agent is why a team would allow that player to become available.
One free agent who fits in terms of quality and why his current team has not re-signed him is Trent Williams. The San Francisco 49ers would almost certainly franchise him if they could, but his restructured contract prevents that. He’s one of the top three LTs in football even heading into his age 33 season, and he’s exactly the kind of leader Ballard covets. The 49ers have $16.5M under the cap, which is a little less than Williams alone would likely cost.
If the Colts sign Williams to a front loaded deal that allows them to escape in case of injury or age winning that war in which it is undefeated, they check the short-term box and head into 2021 with arguably the NFL’s best offensive line. Think of this potential signing as being similar to inking Philip Rivers to his one-year deal, with the complication of Williams needing a longer contract. This is basically the “Anthony Castonzo final year plan” the Colts were hoping to execute.
How about this for a solution for when Williams is gone? Use the #54 pick to grab Walker Little out of Stanford. He was projected to be a first round pick before injuring his knee in 2019. He sat out 2020 due to COVID concerns. All of that allows for the possibility a 6’7″, 315 lbs. first round talent falls to the late second round.
Because of Ballard’s coy deployment of assets, the two gaping holes they need to address are filled without sacrificing their first round slot at #21. He’ll hold onto it a moment longer by spending $80 million over four years to sign a true #1 receiver – Allen Robinson. Coming off two seasons catching a total of 200 passes for almost 2,400 yards from Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Chase Daniels, the mind boggles at the thought of what he could do for the Colts if Wentz bounces back to his 2017-2019 form. Sadly, because of this deal, T.Y’ Hilton will have to ply his wares elsewhere.
Xavier Rhodes is re-signed to solve part of the cornerback dilemma.
I would love to hold onto #21, but the Colts still have a serious need at edge. If they swap with Jacksonville for #33 and #45, they can pick up Joe Tryon out of Washington and also add slot receiver Tutu Atwell out of Louisville as a replacement for Hilton.
That should leave enough cash to re-sign Alie-Cox and the draft class. The longterm money for Robinson is a tough nugget to swallow, but we’re trying to win a Super Bowl here, not a prize from the Kelley School of Business for austerity.
Colts – Will they sign Williams to replace Castonzo; Can Butler get into NCAAs? Will IU keep Archie?
Colts need to draft a wide receiver! Purdue line weird; Indiana & Archie NEED a win tomorrow!
Archie Miller wins next three at #iubb or Brad Stevens comes home – I’m good either way!
This picture will give goosebumps to IU fans, but seeing Brad Stevens in a red sweater on the sidelines in Bloomington is just short of an impossibility.
If Brad Stevens becomes available for Indiana University athletic director Scott Dolson to hire as basketball coach, he could pay for both Archie Miller’s buyout and Stevens’ contract in four hours by starting a Go Fund Me page.
I don’t wish Stevens ill will in Boston. He is a tremendous coach and better human being. I hope he keeps or gets whatever gig he covets. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith says Stevens is in trouble with the Celtics, and while I don’t pay much attention to his bleating or those of the other two hour per day pundits on ESPN and Fox, his thoughts about coaches sometimes make sense.
Archie Miller is also a guy I hope succeeds. His four seasons at Indiana have been relentlessly mediocre, but I keep watching the Hoosiers because success seems so close – or at least it did. Championships were promised when Miller was hired in 2017, and fans are still waiting for delivery. I don’t know Miller as I do Stevens, so I can’t speak to the kind of human being he is. Miller has not been willing to share much of himself to media or fans, so whether he is a great guy is an unknown, but I would still love to see IU win in bunches regardless.
What we do know is that IU needs to win its final three regular season games to finish with a winning Big 10 record for the first time since 2016. That ignominious streak includes all four of Miller’s teams. It’s also been that long since Indiana earned an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. Fans are more than a little edgy about Indiana being a Big 10 doormat year after year, and are loudly calling for yet another change in coaches.
The last time IU went five straight years without going to “The Big Dance” predates it being called “The Big Dance.” It was a small dance from 1968-1972, with only 25 teams bracketed, so being excluded did not bring the shame to the Hoosiers it does today. Indiana is still projected in the tourney by some bracketologists, but with three tough games left, they still have a lot of heavy lifting to do to get there.
Stevens’ Celtics are two games under .500 with a game tonight against the Pacers. If he can’t get better results, general manager Danny Ainge is far more likely to point at Brad as the cause than the roster he put together. Ainge didn’t get to be general manager of the Celtics by accepting blame for his flaws. If the Celtics don’t pivot from their current malaise, Ainge could decide eight years is enough for Stevens.
That might be the opening Indiana needs to hire the guy who attended so many IU games at Assembly Hall as a kid with his dad, and led Butler to back-to-back National Championship games in 2010 and 2011. Stevens is universally beloved in his home state, and would be hailed as the perfect fit by the vast majority of difficult to please fans.
Stevens to IU is the long shot of long shots whether Stevens is retained by the Celtics or not. The recruiting grind is not something NBA coaches enjoy when they consider a return to college, and Stevens would be an perfect fit for ESPN, Turner, or Fox if he wants to make some easy cash in media. He would get immediate offers from other NBA teams as soon as his ouster in Boston was made known, so it’s not like Indiana would be his only option for gainful employment.
Stevens to Indiana would almost have to be the result of a calling – a siren song to that young fan who loved the Hoosiers growing up in Zionsville. It would have to represent a dream come true, as the money and responsibilities would likely be at least as good elsewhere.
It would also take a weird confluence of timing. If Indiana continues its downward slide and the decision is made to make a change, it’s unlikely Stevens would lose his job simultaneously. Dolson is not going to sit with an opening until the NBA regular season ends for the Celtics on May 16th.
Indiana turning the corner with Miller as coach is a wonderful dream, and so is Stevens returning home to coach in Bloomington.
Both are roughly equal in their likelihood.
Colts Reich says Q may be LT; Could Brad Stevens “trouble” in Boston land him in Bloomington?
Colts coach Frank Reich talks Carson Wentz – kind of; IU Basketball has a series of problems
Indiana Basketball – AD Scott Dolson knows it may be more costly to retain Archie Miller, right?
Indiana athletic director Scott Dolson is going to earn his salary in a couple of weeks as he steps out on a skinny limb to either retain or replace Archie Miller.
Will Archie Miler be back for a fifth season as Indiana’s basketball coach?
Social media is filled with terse messages from angry IU fans who have had enough. Last night, they wanted athletic director Scott Dolson to fire Archie as the team plane landed in Bloomington. That did not happen, even after his program’s latest humiliation at the hands and dunks of Rutgers.
A small sect of reflective and sober fans understand that the Hoosiers have another three tests left in the regular season. This bizarre team that has defied expectations – both good and bad – all year, and they might just run the table to land a spot in the NCAA Tournament and cool Miller’s seat. It’s a long shot, but possible.
Assuming that doesn’t happen, Indiana will watch the NCAA Tournament on TV for the fifth straight year. When Miller was hired, athletic director Fred Glass laid out the expectations for the program very clearly. Indiana is expected to contend for championships – both Big 10 and national. Obviously, they have fallen well short. In fact, IU has gone five straight years without a winning conference record.
Smart people will tell you that Miller will be tough to fire because of the buyout terms that will force the university to pay Miller every dollar owed him through the end of his seven-year contract if they pull the trigger. That comes to a whopping $10.5 million to pay Miller to sit on the beach drinking Corona like Snoop Dogg.
During a normal year, IU could make some calls to raise that kind of bread. Because of COVID, IU’s athletic department is already underwater by $40-$60 million. That means they have already been working over alums to try to hold things together until they can better deal with the shortfall.
Simple logic – the kind best loved by media – tells us that waiting for Miller’s buyout to hit 50% after next season is the smart play. That makes the nut a much easier $3.5 million, and with COVID restrictions mercifully evolving out of our lives, the Hoosiers could move on from Miller quite easily.
Sadly, collegiate athletics is not that simple. If Dolson is hoping Indiana fans are willing to invest financially and spiritually in a team led by a mediocre coach they know will be replaced as soon as it is feasible, he is misguided. That kind of short-term thinking may be more costly to IU than biting the bullet to finally hire the right coach for this program.
Not only will fans unplug from the program, so will recruits. Miller as a lame duck might be the head shot that finally renders obsolete Indiana Basketball as we know it – or have known it. Financial prudence might cause IU more longterm harm than Bob Knight‘s boorishness or Kelvin Sampson’s indifference to NCAA rules. Rebuilding will be delayed by yet another year, and this fading jewel of a basketball program may never recover.
The balconies of Assembly Hall that sit empty this season because of COVID, may remain forever empty because of apathy.
These are perilous times for Indiana Basketball, and not just because the regular season is going to conclude with games against #3 Michigan, Michigan State team in East Lansing, and a Purdue team Miller has never beaten – at least not as Indiana’s coach.
My advice to Dolson would be to get basketball moving forward as quickly as possible. If the timing is right to hire the coach to steer the program out of this forever circling mediocrity, hit the throttle and damn the torpedos. If that coach isn’t available, ride out Miller’s fifth year while giving him all the authority he needs to elicit disciplined execution from a roster that appears not too worried about consequences for noncompliance.
And please do all of it without convening a blue ribbon panel of check writers to sign off on the hire.
Indiana Basketball hits new low in abysmal 22 minute stretch against Rutgers #iubb
Watching Rutgers dunk last night appeared to be as fun for Indiana players as Rutgers fans.
Indiana was outscored 57-22 during roughly the middle half of last night’s 74-63 loss to Rutgers. That stretch of putrid basketball may have doomed IU to its fifth straight season without an invitation to the NCAA Tournament.
Facing a test that would either put Indiana inside the bubble for the NCAA Tournament or exclude them from it, Archie Miller chose to play his starters a maximum of 32 minutes. For contrast, in Butler’s win over Seton Hall last night, LaVall Jordan played four of his starters at least 35 minutes – two played 39. The Bulldogs are 8-13 as they rebuild, and somehow found the tenacity to play their best group through nearly the entire game. Indiana managed minutes with a broad rotation of players who get lost defensively and cannot score.
During a crucial stretch in the second half, BTN analyst Stephen Bardo, who is relentlessly positive, wondered aloud, “Who on the floor for the Hoosiers is going to score?” His comment preached to a choir of Indiana fans tired of watching a stagnant and simplistic offense struggle to put the ball in the bucket.
During Indiana’s opening 23-8 run, Al Durham threw in four three-pointers, and Trayce Jackson-Davis was allowed free access to the rim, resulting in dunks. When Rutgers adjusted by pressuring IU’s guards, the Hoosiers had no answer. Either Miller didn’t understand what was happening well enough to counter, or IU’s players aren’t competent enough to execute his plan.
Either way, Indiana’s collapse was as predictable as it was galling. There was no way the Hoosiers were going to continue to pour in buckets at a rate necessary to hold off the inevitable Rutgers bounce, but it shouldn’t have devolved so far the Scarlet Knights could outscore IU by 35 over the next 22 minutes!
As Jordan Geronimo made the score cosmetically more appealing with two late three-pointers, chances for IU’s NCAA bid faded to near zero. With games remaining against #3 Michigan at Assembly Hall, and road trips at resurgent Michigan State and always tough Purdue, it seems a win in any of the three is a long shot.
That final game at Mackey Arena looks especially daunting. Purdue treats Miller’s IU team like little brothers on the court and in recent recruiting battles. A loss to the Boilermakers would be a fitting and nauseating end to Miller’s fourth regular season at Indiana.
I can’t help but hope the Hoosiers find a way to defy the obvious expectations of losing against Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue. Every time fans and media have thought they had Miller’s Hoosiers figured out, they have found a way to bounce in the other direction. Impermeable evidence of IU’s lack of predictability lies in its inability to either win or lose more than two consecutive games through this season’s 23 games.
Indiana might have forfeited its opportunity last night to return to March Madness, but it also losing to Rutgers might awaken the pride of some of the Hoosiers who seem lost both physically and emotionally.
The good news is that college basketball seasons are long. Sadly, that might also be bad news if Miller can’t somehow compel his team to show 40 minutes of fight in any of these three final tests before they limp into Indianapolis for the Big 10 Tournament.
Indiana collapse on itself @ Rutgers; Butler roars back in win; Colts will trade down or out of 1st!