Author Archives: Kent Sterling
Indianapolis Colts – Sam Darnold will not be Ballard’s choice despite hopes of deranged fans
New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold is a name that is consistently advanced by Colts fans as a potential target for general manager Chris Ballard as he searches for a fourth different starter in as many years.
It’s good that Ballard is running the franchise and not fans!
The #3 overall selection out of USC in the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold has struggled during his first three seasons as a starter. Statistically, there is no justification in believing that Darnold would be an upgrade over recently retired temporary solution Philip Rivers.
Advocates point to Darnold’s age (23) and the team for whom he toils as reasons to anticipate a turnaround in his performance if the Colts acquired him. They say the quality of the Colts offensive line and weapons at his disposal would allow Darnold to achieve results more in line with the position at which he was drafted.
Here are some hard truths about Darnold:
- During the 2020 season, his passing performance under pressure and while having a clean pocket were very similar.
- Has never achieved a QBR of 46 or better.
- His Pro Football Focus grade has never ranked higher than 29th among quarterbacks with a minimum of 300 snaps.
- In 2020, Darnold’s yards per attempt averaged 6.6 (this is one of the chief metrics cited for Jacoby Brissett being replaced by Philip Rivers after 2019 – Brissett’s average was also 6.6).
- Darnold also averaged a paltry 7.7 yards per intended passing attempt during the 2020 season (Brissett’s was 7.9 in 2019).
Maybe Darnold explodes into a historic turnaround – an era of incredible productivity and winning with a change of scenery, but there is no reason to foresee it. His statistics and tape show a level of quarterback play that would motivate a team like the Jets to deal Darnold for what they can get rather than invest his his future by exercising their fifth year option.
Darnold is an excellent athlete with good feet and a strong arm, but there is more to winning at quarterback than athleticism. For a team whose stated goal is to win multiple Super Bowls there is no justification for acquiring Darnold instead of someone with a higher ceiling in his past, present, and future like Carson Wentz.
Fans have tended to favor Darnold over Wentz, thinking that Wentz’s 2020 performance was so off the rails hideous that he cannot be trusted by the Colts or anyone else. The truth is that by every legitimate measure, Wentz enjoyed a better year than Darnold despite leading the NFL in both interceptions and sacks.
Last year, Darnold’s PFF grade and QBR were 58.4 and 40.2 – ranking #35 and #33. Wentz was at 65.0 and 49.2 in those two measures – ranking #32 and #28 respectively. Those two grading schemes are imperfect, but quarterbacks who played in the AFC and NFC Championships were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #7 by PFF and #1, #2, #3, and #9 in QBR. Long story short – having a QB who grades well reflects a level of play that leads to winning in January.
While Darnold has languished over three years with the Jets, Wentz showed stretches of good to excellent play from 2017-2019 with the Eagles. Wentz was ranked 6th, 14th, and 14th by PFF during those seasons while Darnold has never been ranked higher than 26th.
This is not to scream that Wentz should be the choice for the Colts, just a better option than Darnold. It’s true that Wentz’s injury history makes him a risk – especially given the expensive contract extension commencing during the upcoming league year. Darnold is healthy, and headed into the final year of his rookie contract, making him a substandard but low risk single year option.
Ballard has many decisions to make about his Colts over the next 11 weeks. The most important will be who his quarterback will be. It would be shocking if the Colts landed upon Darnold.
It may not be Wentz, but it sure as hell won’t be Darnold.
Indiana loses 78-59 to #4 Ohio State in game where hope was lost early
Tim Garl has seen a lot of basketball in his 40 years as Indiana Basketball’s trainer. He seemed to know which way this one was headed as he watched.
What did you think was going to happen?
Indiana got waxed 78-59 today in Columbus by a top five Ohio State team. That’s the way it goes in the Big 10. The better team, and the Buckeyes were obviously the better team, won today. If Indiana and Ohio State played in Columbus 10 times, Ohio State would win 10 times.
It’s true that Indiana caused itself a great deal of distress with so many of the same issue that have corrupted its ability to take a meaningful step forward in Archie Miller‘s fourth season, but even if they hit every free throw and cut turnovers to single digits, they likely lose by five or six.
A game after Indiana got off to a weak 21-7 start at Northwestern, they limped to a 21-6 deficit during the first nine-plus minutes of this game. Unfortunately, Ohio State is just a tad better than Northwestern, and Indiana would make only a cosmetic run at the lead as the game plowed forward toward its inevitably negative conclusion.
With 14:15 remaining, a Trayce Jackson-Davis dunk cut the Ohio State lead to five at 45-40. The Buckeyes subsequent 22-4 run ended all doubt as to who the victor would be this afternoon. That stretch was representative of Indiana’s play with four turnovers leading to eight points, three Ohio State Offensive rebounds that lead to six points, and a technical by Jerome Hunter that led to one point.
Self-inflicted wounds for the Hoosiers included:
- 15 turnovers
- 12 offensive rebounds allowed
- 10 free throws (out of 22) missed
Toward the end of ESPN’s broadcast, analyst Jay Bilas began hedging his bets as to IU’s potential as an NCAA Tournament team, but who wouldn’t after watching the Hoosiers sleepwalk at 80% effort for the majority of the game. Several times in the first half, Bilas said, “Indiana IS a tournament team.” Late in the game, that wild optimism evolved into a safer, “I think Indiana is a tournament team.”
Discussions continue about why Indiana exists in this state of perpetual mediocrity, but today’s result was appropriate given the Buckeyes effort and execution, and IU’s lack thereof.
Indiana remains bubble-ridden with Minnesota and Michigan State visiting Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. If they win both, Indiana’s record jumps to a respectable 13-9. A loss to either would mean the Hoosiers would likely need a victory against Michigan or Purdue to validate Bilas’s confidence.
In the meantime, IU fans hope the switch goes on for a group that appears content to play a game rather than compete in a quest for excellence.
Colts QB updated odds! Purdue loses! Pacers win! IU needs toughness! Breakfast with Kent!
Colts QB search could take four paths – what are they? IU lack of toughness is Archie’s fault
If consistent hard work is Archie Miller’s goal for Indiana Basketball, he has failed as coach
“The reward for hard work is more work.”
Every adult drawing breath figures out the wonder of hard work eventually. Most children adopt that wisdom through failures that come because of a lack of effort. Many adults migrate to that understanding as they become responsible for a spouse and children. Some sad souls never get it.
That is what is so perplexing and aggravating about Indiana Basketball. The opportunity is there each year for a roster to embrace a compulsion to work really hard – to give everything to reach their potential – but the Hoosiers routinely decide comfort trumps diligence.
Coaches try to poke, prod, love, cajole, and bully student-athletes into the discomfort necessary to test their will and reach into a reserve of physical and psychological effort where wins and championships are earned.
College students who compete in athletics believe they earned their way onto their team because of talent. What they eventually learn is that talent is not enough because each team they compete against has similarly talented athletes. The point of differentiation is the willingness to embrace hard work as the most important point of differentiation in their sport – whatever it is.
For the truly lucky among the devoted workers, victories and trophies follow. That’s lucky because as they hold trophies, the reality sets in that the trophy is a hunk of metal. The true reward is the ability to experience the pain of euphoric exhaustion.
Explaining that to someone who has yet to learn it is like speaking Klingon to a Rottweiler. Indiana fans who have tasted the spiritual fruits of tireless work, watch Indiana’s Basketball team and cringe. Every game is filled with moments of effortless ineptitude that reveal their utter contempt for the quote at the top of this post.
It used to be a requirement of Indiana Basketball that they accept extreme tenacity as a part of their four-year excursion through the last stage of adolescence and toward adulthood. Demands for digging deep to sprint through additional reps have become requests, and the result is wild inconsistence. The culture of toughness enforced by teammates who have already embraced paying that price for success has evolved into comfort and happiness tolerated by adults who know better.
That’s infuriating to anyone who loved the Hoosiers when they stood for something different; and for those who wore that uniform, it is especially galling.
Coaching is not about Xs and Os. Tactics will only take a team so far. It’s about pushing the buttons necessary to compel extreme effort, communication, and cooperation from players. It’s about making players’ sacrifices a compulsion, not just a requirement. It’s about being about to recognize the potential for withering hard work in high school kids.
If Archie Miller understands this, there is no evidence to support it. Indiana’s wild fluctuations in effort from possession to possession reveal a coach either afraid or unwilling to ask for perfection from his team. As a result, they are incapable of touching excellence, to paraphrase Vince Lombardi – the bellwether for excellence in leadership.
So Indiana founders along, unable to unlock their potential because their coach is unwilling to force them to find the key. That is a failure of leadership, and it should be beneath the standards required of Indiana Basketball’s coach.
The powers that be at Indiana will not replace Miller because to do that, they would need to aspire to something better than he has provided. Indiana will continue to appear to be close enough to a tipping point in results to placate those who don’t know the difference between good and great – or even mediocre and good.
There used to be a time when what Indiana Basketball is wasn’t good enough, but no one currently at Indiana University remembers what that was like. They don’t know how good it was for everyone, especially the young men who became productive adults because of it.
Indiana Basketball – Roller coaster of effort continues, but with a two-game winning streak!
This defensive excellence should be a 40 minute habit. Instead, the Hoosiers only roll up their sleeves when their backs are against a wall.
Indiana has been a vexing basketball program for the two decades since Bob Knight was fired, and this year’s team might be the most baffling of that bunch.
There have been exceptions like the 2002 and 2013 teams that won the Big 10 and had the glint of a potential national champion, but for the most part fans have had a tough time developing an accurate expectation of style and execution of play. Again, this year’s team confuses fans – often from possession to possession.
The Hoosiers missed more than half of their free throws in last night’s win at Northwestern before finding the bottom of the net on its final 14. Defensively, Indiana communicated poorly and allowed the Wildcats open look after open look before finally getting in a stance, containing drivers, and contesting every shot. Same players, but wildly different levels of effort depending upon the level of urgency in the moment.
Throughout Archie Miller‘s uneven four years as coach, Indiana has shown itself capable of beating anyone, but also losing to anyone – many times in the same week. Miller’s Indiana teams are 3-9 after beating a ranked opponent – including last night’s win which came after a win against #8 Iowa.
The offense Indiana runs most seems quite easy to defend. Make a pass, set a ball screen, enter the post, repeat. When Trayce Jackson-Davis begins to make his move, defenses bring a double team – always. Jackson-Davis pops it back in the direction from which the ball came, and the process is repeated until the Hoosiers are forced by the shot clock to shoot. It’s predictable and nauseating.
Where Indiana finds success is in creating offense from its defense. When Indiana chooses to lock down, they force live ball turnovers and missed shots. Like most basketball teams, Indiana tends to convert open looks in transition. “Defense leads to offense,” every basketball coach on the planet tells his or her team. Indiana is the poster child for that axiom.
The expectation for the Iowa game was that the Hawkeyes, with the first loss to IU still fresh in their memories, would come to Bloomington Sunday intent on embarrassing the Hoosiers as punishment for their temerity in winning in Iowa City. Indiana found a way to stick around long enough to win on an Armaan Franklin jumper from the elbow with 1.5 seconds left.
Last night, fans believed IU was capable of beating up on Northwestern – a team that had lost its previous nine games. Of course, they got off to an almost impossible to watch start, allowing the Wildcats to take a 21-7 lead. Somehow, the Hoosiers rallied to shave that deficit to three at the half. Indiana lead for all of 14-seconds through regulation and the first overtime period before winning in the second OT.
Now, IU looks ahead to #4 Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday. Fans believe there is no way the Hoosiers can stay with the Buckeyes, which means that is exactly what they will do. It’s maddening, but it’s better than believing they will lose and being right!
All this leads to the question of whether the bizarre cycle of up and down effort from Indiana players is due to a general lack of mental toughness for modern student-athletes – or Miller’s inability to lead a team to play to its ability on a consistent basis. The answer might lie in West Lafayette where Purdue seems willing to compete regularly at a high level. How can Indiana’s toughness be part of a generational malaise when the Boilermakers are as relentless as they are.
Because we aren’t at practice, we don’t really know what Miller does as a leader to try to compel compliance. What we know is what we see – that Indiana players seem to be happy and comfortable all the time. Up 10, they smile. Down 10, they smile too. On the bench, they appear pleased to cheer for teammates, rather than furious they aren’t on the floor. Sometimes they lock in, and sometimes they don’t. But always, they congratulate themselves and each other.
Because it’s hard to assess the cause of the problem, it’s impossible to suggest a corrective path. I would prefer a coach respond to a player being lost by forfeiting that player’s right to compete, but it seems like the Hoosiers are as comfortable on the bench as on the floor.
Maybe this is a locker room issue that needs to be addressed by a player who demands more of his teammates – a tough guy who leads his peers into a little discomfort. But I think Indiana has been looking for that guy for a long, long time.
Until the problems that seat Indiana at the Big 10’s kiddie table are solved, maybe fans need to take a deep breath and understand that just as IU was known for being tough guys for the first 24 years under Knight, they are now defined by a lack of toughness that leads to wildly uneven results.
On to another roller coaster in Columbus!
Hoosiers win in 2OTs at NW – and we don’t argue with winning – but…; Pacers lose to Nets! Breakfast with Kent
Indiana Basketball wins in double OT at Northwestern! Ryan Sterling breaks down offense and effort #iubb
Mark Cuban foolishly decides National Anthem will not be played prior to Dallas Mavericks games
Mark Cuban got too smart for the room with his decision to not play the National Anthem before Mavs games.
The Dallas Mavericks are not playing the National Anthem prior to games, per the edict of owner Mark Cuban, and I’m not happy about it.
We are experiencing a fractured America, and sports are one distraction that helps bind us – whether it’s as Americans, Mavs fans, Colts fans, Indiana fans, or fans of any team from the junior high level to the professional ranks where the National Anthem is played.
The National Anthem provides those in attendance – and some at home – a moment to stop talking or checking the smart phone. We stand, remove our hats, reflect, and simply exist together in the same space. It provides a 90-second respite from the endless cacophony of noise and social media that engulfs us.
There is no talk about COVID, masks, Trump, Pelosi, race, religious differences, Biden, or Fauci. There is simply the song Americans grew up with, learned to sing in school, and likely would not know existed if not for the routine of standing quietly during its play prior to sporting events.
Whether or not each American feels the same level of national pride, the National Anthem signals that we are a part of a small community in an arena, stadium, gymnasium, or race track. We recalibrate our focus to the event we will soon witness, and we do it as a unit, regardless of political party, race, religion, nationality, or vaccination status.
Sure it’s a song that is hard to sing, and not all of us are compelled to profess our love for America in the same manner, but the National Anthem is about more than that, and Cuban should be smart enough to see it.
My grandmother taught me to stand for the National Anthem with my hand over my heart, even when watching Cubs games on TV. The National Anthem is rarely part of a TV broadcast anymore, but when it is I think of my grandmother. That’s always a nice moment for me. The bond between us was forged during those moment, and it’s nice to re-live it by honoring or country in the way she taught me.
Cuban is a renegade who made his money by anticipating trends and technological advances, but his humanity is lacking here as he has stripped yet another thing that connected us as human beings, regardless of our feelings about the flaws of this country we call home.
These are times when the familiar makes us feel normal if just for a minute or two, and we need to treasure those moments and build on them. There is no talk during the National Anthem – and there are also no texts, emails, tweets, or DMs. It’s just us standing quietly – together.
In the end, it might be the best part of the events we pay to see.