Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Indiana Basketball – Between the lines of Archie Miller’s comments about Illinois loss, toughness, & Jerome Hunter

 

Archie Miller‘s seat is not nearly as hot as many might believe. His position is secure through next season unless something drastic happens.

Indiana coach Archie Miller said some interesting things last night after Indiana lost in overtime to Illinois.  He knows what’s on the line, but appears not to be willing to do what is necessary to motivate a consistent effort from the Hoosiers.

For all four of his seasons as Tom Crean’s replacement, Miller has provided mediocrity spiced with occasional upset wins.  At 9-8, IU is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight year (it’s likely IU would have been invited last year, but there was no guarantee).

I enjoy watching Miller’s press conferences after a loss as a form of self-flagellation.  If you are a fan of painfully reliving losses, here are some of Miller’s comments, followed by my explanation of what they mean.

Here was Miller last night discussing his team’s toughness – or lack thereof:

“Our guys competed. We’re not tough enough to finish games off. We’re not tough enough in little plays. … The tough plays that you gotta make to win. That’s why we have so many heartbreakers.”

“I think our team is getting better. It is hard in this league when you not only have to play well but you have to be super tough at the right times. You have to able to make a couple plays, whether it is a loose ball, made free throws, or whatever it may be. We have to grow out of that because I think we can play anybody but we are having a hard time finishing things off.  The good thing is we have another opportunity on Sunday against a great team.”

The problem is not necessarily finishing things off but eliminating the mental lapses early on that put the team in a precarious position toward the ends of games.  Lane violations, missed defensive assignments, silly passes, missed free throws, and business decisions on defense all lead to a final possession for the game that Indiana cannot convert.

A lack of consistency can be overcome by excellent players at the high school level, which every Big 10 player was.  Screw some things up in the first half of a high school game, and clean it up over the last four minutes to rescue your team.  In the Big 10, that inconsistency in the first half is the difference between winning and losing.

Illinois was good enough to overcome an indifferent first half with withering defense in the second.  Indiana was not attentive to detail in the first half at a level that punished Illinois for laying back on defense.

There are two Indiana players who got after it for 40 minutes last night.  Armaan Franklin and Race Thompson were tough and grinded hard throughout the game.  Two out of five showing up every possession is not enough for Indiana.

The “I think our team is getting better” nonsense from Miller needs to stop.  It’s just silly banter from a coach who appears more interested in being positive with players than holding them publicly accountable.  Miller doesn’t need to put his players on blast with the media after every loss, but cushioning them with a hollow compliment after a loss at Assembly Hall is not Indiana-like.

He should also shelve the talk about how tough the Big 10 is.  We know the Big 10 is the best basketball conference top to bottom in the country.  Yes, it’s a challenge to win in the Big 10, so either find players capable of matching Illinois, Iowa, or Wisconsin’s toughness or go to a less-rigorous league.  It’s unbecoming of the coach at Indiana to talk about how hard it is to be “super tough at the right times.”  It’s Miller’s job to recruit and inspire toughness.

Toughness should be a given at any program because it is one of the few things in basketball that can be controlled.

On Jerome Hunter not dressing:

“There is nothing to really talk about with Jerome. Jerome was a coach’s decision and it’ll continue to be a coach’s decision as we continue to go through the next 33 days that we have left in the regular season. He has a chance to earn his way back onto the floor. He practices every day. He lifts weights. He does everything, but he is not going to take the floor again until the coach feels he is in the right frame of mind to number one lead himself in the right way and number two has the bigger picture in mind in terms of protecting our team at all times.”

“Jerome is a good kid. He is a good player. We could have used him tonight. The bottom line is, when he is right and concentrated on what he is supposed to do, he can help us. I don’t think right now he can help us until he shows me that. That is it for that. It was my decision and it will be to be determined when he plays again.”

I tend to get caught up in discipline and accountability for student-athletes who run afoul of behavioral expectations, but judging from Miller’s language in his comments about Hunter – specifically the phrase “protecting our team at all times” – I surmise this penalty was prompted by a violation of COVID-19 protocols.  Sounds like he spent time in very close proximity with a person or group of people who are not affiliated with the basketball team.

While that is a big deal, it does not rise to the level of a “pack your bags” violation.  Hopefully, he learns that his decisions have an impact upon others, and when he comes back he’s ready to be in the right place defensively at the right time.

**************

If it sounds like I’m down on Miller, of course I am.  Indiana is 9-8.  If IU fans, alums, and administrators are not down when Indiana is 9-8, there is a different set of problems that need to be addressed.

I’m not close to buying that athletic director Scott Dolson should make a change from Miller unless the exact right person is available.  I believe IU might be on the precipice of jumping a level.  The roster is going to get older, losing very little depth.  This isn’t about the realities of a $10.5M buyout – it’s about the possibility of a quality basketball product returning to Assembly Hall.

Next year, this will be Miller’s team lock, stock, and barrel.  If there is not marked improvement in results, a different conversation will need to take place.

 

Indiana Basketball – playing hard and well in spurts not enough to beat Illini in OT

Race Thompson might have played his most complete game as a Hoosier last night, but it wasn’t enough as IU fell in OT.

Indiana lost 75-71 to Illinois in overtime last night for a variety of reasons – lack of toughness, a role player wandering so far from behavioral expectations he was not allowed to dress, Illinois straightening out effort issues for the second half, and the Hoosiers regular dose of inattention to detail.

This is nothing new.  IU has wandered through this self-imposed mediocrity for years – all the way back to the latter portions of the grim Tom Crean era, which is beginning to look like the program’s salad days.  They play well for a game or two, recede to the mean in a loss or two, and then challenge themselves to play well enough to win again.  This cycle appears to be on a never-ending loop.

The Hoosiers played well during the first half of last night’s loss in large part because Illinois did not.  The Fighting Illini showed little fight as Indiana took a seven-point lead into the break.  As resolutely ordinary as Indiana can be, they are capable of moving the ball, creating open shots, and knocking them down against passive opponents.  Last night, IU turned the ball over four times in the first half and shot 48% as it built a 41-34 lead.

The second half was a different 20 minutes entirely.  The Illini found their fight – forcing 11 turnovers and restricting IU’s offensive opportunities.  Indiana gave similar effort on the defensive end with the exception of a game-changing stretch in the second half that changed the game in their disfavor.

If anything, Indiana’s 30 second half point total was more impressive than their 41 in the first half because it came against Illinois at their smothering best.

A personal 8-0 run by Trent Frazier pulled the Illini out of a six-point hole and into a two-point lead with three minutes to play.  Indiana fought back to force OT, and then wilted in the overtime period.

The galling aspect of this loss, and other similar overtime failures against Florida State and Wisconsin, is in the fundamental lapses that cause a lost offensive possession or provide a second scoring opportunity for the opponent.  There were plenty of those last night.

Among the most egregious:

  • Freshman Jordan Geronimo committed a lane violation that allowed the Illini to turn a missed free throw into a make.
  • Al Durham and Armaan Franklin were among those who surrendered defensive rebounds to the Illini that led directly to baskets.
  • IU missed 11 free throws (one on purpose) in regulation.
  • Khristian Lander got lost defensively on back-to-back possessions that allowed Frazier to score six points.
  • There were other turnovers too numerous to list resulting from poor execution that stole opportunities from IU.

While we are talking about reasons Indiana lost, let’s not completely overlook the effect referees exerted on the game late.  From the time Race Thompson went to the line with 2:56 remaining in regulation until Illinois fouled Franklin on purpose with four seconds left in OT, IU was outshot at the line 8-0.

The officiating was a train wreck in Bloomington last night, and not necessarily in Indiana’s disfavor.  Fifty-four fouls were called and five players were disqualified.  Referees should be paid for maintaining fairness, but in the Big 10 they are either paid by the whistle, as ESPN analyst Dan Dakich joked (kind of) – or they are paid to call the game strictly by the book.  The result was a game that ran beyond two-and-a-half hours of regulation time, and nearly stretched to three hours with the OT.  Referees forcing IU fans to stick it out through a bonus half-hour to experience the entirely foreseeable misery of this loss was cruel.

So Indiana will trundle back to Assembly Hall on Sunday at noon to see if they can beat Iowa for a second time in 18 days.  I doubt Iowa has forgotten the first game – an embarrassing 12-point home loss.

If the regular season record necessary for an NCAA bid is 14-11, Indiana needs to finish 5-3 in their remaining eight games.  The Hoosiers are a long way from being a team that can be counted on to stack wins at that rate – at least they were last night.

Colts offseason strategy needs to solve short and long-term quarterback needs!

NDSU’s Trey Lance is the key to all the Colts long term dreams coming true.

The Colts quarterback dilemma doesn’t require general manager Chris Ballard choose between longterm vision and short term results.

The question of whether the Colts should choose a quarterback to build around for 10-15 years or someone with whom they can win now is not necessary.  They need to think bigger, and I’m sure Ballard is.

The Colts can ride the long-term and short-term tracks simultaneously.  The Packers have done that since the 1990s, and the Colts should take a page from their playbook.

So how can they accomplish both in the next 90 days?

There is virtually no way the Colts could move up from the 21st overall draft pick to the top five. That eliminates Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson as possibilities for a new potentially elite level quarterback, but there are two others projected to be taken in the top 15.  One is Mac Jones and Trey Lance is the other.

Jones excelled at Alabama, playing behind an NFL offensive line and throwing or handing off to a variety of soon-to-be first rounders like Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Najee Harris.  Jones is a game manager like Philip Rivers – a guy who can read a defense and deliver the ball accurately, but without the dynamic athleticism so in demand in 2021.

Lance is a wild card.  He won a national championship at North Dakota State in 2019 with a big accurate arm and fast feet.  NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah believes his tool box slides somewhere in between Andrew Luck and Dad Prescott.  The knock on Lance is that he played only one season with NDSU, minus a lone game in 2020 due to COVID.  He has all the gifts, but is likely not ready to make the jump from the prairie to success in the big time in 2021.

Maybe Lance is THAT guy in this draft.  He could rocket up the draft board as Josh Allen of Wyoming did before being taken #7 by the Buffalo Bills.  In that case, Lance bounces to Detroit or Carolina at #7 or #8.  But if he slides, the Colts could find themselves in a position to move up and grab him.

If the Colts can’t get Lance, there is nothing to regret in seeing Jones’ very high floor as a solution.  The ceiling isn’t as high as Lance, but Super Bowls have been won by quarterback less than fleet afoot.  There is a guy who will play in his 10th this Sunday who I could beat in a foot race.

Because the Colts are clearing $46M in cap room as Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, and (finally) Andrew Luck come off the books, they can easily accommodate an inflated contract for a year or two to get something more certain out of their quarterback.

Carson Wentz is not as bad as his 2020 statistics showed.  Leading the NFL in both sacks and interceptions do more to depress his trade market than reveal his abilities.  Wentz had a season in 2017 under Frank Reich as offensive coordinator that the Colts would welcome.  He led the NFL in QBR and the Eagles for most of their world championship season.

Sure, his contract wildly overpays for the contributions he made in 2020, but if $35M buys Wentz at his best and a year for Lance to develop, the only downside is that owner Jim Irsay might tremble while signing his game checks.  His dead money would be $24.6M over the last three years of his deal, but if he plays well the Colts can deal him so they don’t have to swallow that contract for a back-up.

This is February 2, and a lot of things can happen in the quarterback market between now and the draft.  Free agency will start as a feeding frenzy – as always – and with a dozen or more teams looking to upgrade a quarterback, fools will overspend for limited return.

It’s a good bet the Colts will lurk in the weeds, and pounce when the time is right.  That’s what their tendency has been under Ballard, who needs to check the box marked “win now QB” this offseason and eventually “QB Colts can build around.”  It would be heavy lifting the check both during the same offseason, but my money is on Ballard getting that done.

Only thing for sure is the Colts do not have their long or short-term franchise quarterback on the current roster.