Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Indiana Basketball ready to roll – and I’m all in! Life to too strange right now not to be

Archie Miller speaks to the media about his fourth IU team – a team that needs to succeed at a higher level than the first three.

Today, Indiana Basketball will be back on the court for an official practice for the first time since the 2019-2020 season was shuttered after IU defeated Nebraska in the first round of the Big 10 Tournament in Indianapolis, and I’m feeling good about the Hoosiers.

This, though, is the last time I am going to allow fanboy optimism brighten my mood about Indiana Basketball before I actually see a reason for it with my own eyes.  Hopefully, it’s the last time I need to.

Click here for your copy of “Oops – the Art of Learning from Mistakes and Adventures” by Kent Sterling

Archie Miller is now the sole owner of what the Hoosiers are.  All of Tom Crean’s players are gone, and so it is finally time to view this program through the prism of Miller’s ability to get Indiana back to a place of prominence in college basketball.  The guy can either coach or not, and in year four we will find out.

The pass Miller was allowed for the first three years of mediocrity has expired, and this roster has the unique combination of experience, youth, and talent to be able to contend in the Big 10.  Indiana returns four starters in Al Durham, Rob Phinisee, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Joey Brunk.  Also back are contributors like Jerome Hunter, Race Thompson, and Armaan Franklin.  Freshman phenom Khristian Landers, Anthony Leal, Jordan Geronimo, and Trey Galloway round out the 11 scholarship players.

The cultural re-plate from the final Crean years appears to be complete.  Gone are the east coast summer stars who were brought in through relationships with assistant coach Kenny Johnson.  Seven of the 11 who are fighting for rotational spots, including three returning starters, played high school ball in Indiana, and so are three of the four freshmen.  So, just as Indiana fans like it, Indiana Basketball’s roster is filled with Indiana basketball players.

The schedule – other than the first round game against Providence in the Maui Classic – has not been finalized, so projecting the number of wins or how the Hoosiers might build a resume’ for the NCAA Tourney is impossible.  This will be a different kind of season with a maximum of 27 regular season games, perhaps none against cupcakes, and the typical criteria for NCAA Tournament selection is gone.

So judging Miller’s role in Indiana’s success or failure is going to be difficult, just as it was last year.  IU was occasionally very sound last year in building a season that would almost certainly have finished with Miller’s first trip to the NCAA Tourney as the Hoosiers’ coach.  Because of fears of COVID spread, it ended after that win against Nebraska.

Since Bob Knight was fired in 2000, Indiana has a cumulative Big 10 record that is just two games over .500.  The bar is still way up there for some.  “We have to perennially contend for Big 10 Championships,” said former athletic director Fred Glass when he hired Miller.  Through three seasons, Miller’s Hoosiers have finished sixth, eighth, and tenth.

That is nowhere near contention.

But those three years are in the past, and 2020-2021 gives Indiana fans the greatest potential for quality play since Miller was introduced at that happy ceremony at Simon-Skjodt Assembly Hall when Glass’s bar was set.

Miller said yesterday in his annual media day appearance that Indiana needs to limit turnovers to win.  Hard to argue with that.  Indiana fans learned a long time ago that limiting errors is the best path to winning.  Players were unanimous in declaring this a very positive offseason with players holding each other accountable for attendance and effort at voluntary workouts.

That kind of thing has been said at every media day – regardless of the team, sport, or level – in my memory.  The sell lines are well rehearsed, and the message of hard-working student-athletes balling out for the glory of Old (insert university name here) is always delivered to media, who lap it up without dissent.

Does any of this mean a damn thing?  Not really.  My willingness to buy what IU is selling is directly proportionate to my dissatisfaction with challenges related to COVID and other societal issues that grind on us.  I cannot allow myself to be skeptical about everything, so I am willing to look at the Hoosiers with hope for brighter days.

I believe in Miller’s recruitment of Indiana kids.  I have long held that basketball is played by Indiana’s children at a higher level than most other places, and that a team of Hoosiers would out-execute kids from other regions.  Miller’s willingness to give that ideology a shot has me tethered to his corner, and I hope his Hoosiers will validate my belief.

If not – and if normal life returns so my angst can be directed toward frivolous matters like Indiana Basketball – I may turn as surly as I became during Crean’s final season.

Nobody wants that.

Wish it took us longer to figure out Colts QB Philip Rivers is always going to be Philip Rivers

Maybe Jacob Eason will be the next great Colts QB, but it will be awhile before we find out.

With 11 games left in the Colts season, smart guys know what is going to happen, and it sucks.

The quarterback position is the fatal flaw that will keep the Colts from being a Super Bowl contender.  They could eke their way into the postseason, but their stay will be short.  That’s because Philip Rivers is who he always has been – a game manager that throws it to the other guys enough to get you beat.

That’s who he was against the Jaguars in the season opening loss and again in Cleveland last Sunday.  He was also that guy with the Chargers last year, leading them to an 0-6 record when he threw two-or-more interceptions.

Click here for your copy of “Oops – the Art of Learning from Mistakes and Adventures” by Kent Sterling

The thing with Rivers has always been that he is usually unflappable and laser accurate, so the picks appear to be a correctable issue.  He’s also one of the better game managers in the NFL with a per pass attempt average of eight yards.  But Rivers is almost 39-years-old, and if the riddle of the Rivers could be solved – it would have been.

Rivers is the NFL’s version of Tim Wakefield – the Red Sox knuckleballer.  His throws are soft and once in a while yield home runs for the opposition.  He is also a likable guy who answers questions easily and completely.  Writing or saying negative things about him isn’t fun, but it is necessary to be honest about what his impact on the Colts is.

He is not the answer for the Colts.  He wasn’t the answer in San Diego or Los Angeles either – at least not if the question is “Who can take us to the Super Bowl?”

His coaches and general managers have always believed Rivers had the ability – if only he could avoid the strange lapses leading to interceptions, and they have always laid the blame elsewhere.

Colts management suggested several times that Rivers’ picks in 2019 were because of the porous Chargers offensive line.  After Sunday, fans and media shifted responsibility to Le’Raven Clark, who filled in for injured starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo.  It’s true that Clark was a slow-moving chicane for Browns game-wrecker Myles Garrett, but Rivers threw the picks.

Others are talking about the spate of injuries to weapons Rivers was expected to utilize with the Colts.  Again, it’s true.  Marlon Mack tore his Achilles, Parris Campbell has a PCL issue, and Michael Pittman had surgery to address Compartment Syndrome.  All are on the shelf and will remain there for at least a few more weeks (Mack is done for the season), but injuries happen to virtually every team.

The excuses are accurate, but not germane.  Rivers is Rivers.  Brissett is Brissett.  Eason?  Well, we don’t know what the hell he is, but you can bet your ass everyone within the Colts family is happy they were able to sidestep the enthusiasm for Eason that would have been the result of a full preseason.  The kid might not ever be a starting quarterback in the NFL, but he sure looks and throws like one.  He’s just the kind of guy who would light up the fourth stringers about the be cut in the second half of exhibitions.

Right now, the Colts are trying to silence the early adapters to Rivers being a false idol in Indianapolis.  To help, the NFL’s scheduling office gave them what should be a two-week reprieve.

Rivers and the Colts get to spar against bottom feeding Bengals and Lions the next two Sundays.  The pressure will be reduced on the Colts and Rivers as they ascend to 5-2.  Fans will forget all about the two interceptions and safety against the Browns, and the two picks against the Jaguars.

Then Rivers will be forced to flow upstream for four weeks against the Ravens, Titans, Packers, and Titans (again).  That will be the season, and the search for the next great Colts quarterback will continue.

Games against Bengals & Lions will calm concerns about Colts quarterback situation, not solve them

The next quarterback to lead the Colts to a super bowl is not in this picture.

Philip Rivers lost the game in Cleveland.

He made an indefensible throw that resulted in a pick six, and threw another pass in the direction of no one in particular while he was in the end zone.  That resulted in a safety.  When a quarterback scores nine points for the other guys in a nine-point loss, fans get agitated.

Colts fans are more than nervous.  They are panicked as they debate the merits of potential immediate replacements for Rivers like Matt Ryan and Sam Darnold.  Because Peyton Manning schooled this fanbase as to what championship level quarterback play looks like, they have dismissed Rivers as unworthy after five games.

Click here for your copy of “Oops – the Art of Learning from Mistakes and Adventures” by Kent Sterling

Brass on 56th Street is not ready to so quickly jettison the idea of Rivers as a winner.  They see the good and hope the lapses pass.  Coach Frank Reich is being relied upon to prop Rivers up and put him in a position to succeed.  People are not happy it didn’t happen Sunday, and not just fans.

This is a prudent and measured front office and coaching staff.  They will not show their asses and toss Rivers under a bus.  Nor will they ante up offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni as a sacrificial lamb – as a previous coach did with Pep Hamilton when his seat grew a little warm.

It’s understandable the Colts believed Jacoby Brissett needed to be replaced after he languished through 2017 (as a suddenly acquired replacement for an injured Andrew Luck and decrepit Scott Tolzien) and 2019 (for a suddenly retired Luck).  He made slow reads and decisions in the pocket that stifled the offense.  In his 30 starts, Brissett’s plodding prudence and risk aversion cost the team opportunities to win.

Rivers was advertised as a quarterback who was stuck behind a leaky Chargers offensive line but would thrive behind Quenton and Company.  He has performed as he did in San Diego and Los Angeles, exercising occasional reckless decisiveness that led to two losses in his five starts.

None of this is good, and if fans who expect the 2020 season to not end well should prepare to celebrate being so smart.  Rivers is a quarterback who will cost his team games, as he has always been.

Two times in his last six seasons with the Chargers, he led the NFL in picks, and in 2017 Brissett led the NFL in sacks.  These guys are neither Manning nor Luck.  They are who they are – roughly .500 quarterbacks (Rivers is 80-85 in the regular season since 2010; Brissett is 11-19) who have fatal flaws for a team wasting a defense capable of holding leads.

This season was always going to be goofy once Rivers was signed to a one-year, $25 million deal.  The question of why the Colts settled on Rivers instead of pursuing Tom Brady and Cam Newton is a good one.  Ballard and Reich tried to sell Rivers as the guy who could get the Colts to the next level, which was a mistake.  That’s not who he is, was, or will ever be.

But he is going to be the guy the Colts rely upon to win games through the end of this season.  He is likely to calm irate fans the next two Sundays as they should dispose of the Bengals and Lions.  Then the road to a championship will end at the edge of a cliff against the Ravens, Titans, Packers, and Titans again.

And this discussion will begin anew.  Sounds like a fun way to spend November and December.

Philip Rivers will win some and lose some for Colts – Get used to it!

Philip Rivers is precisely what he was in San Diego and Los Angeles, and yesterday’s wobbles should have been expected. And they should be in the future too.

Colts quarterback Philip Rivers threw two ill-advised passes yesterday that were caught by Cleveland Browns defenders, and they cost the Colts the game.  Rivers did the same thing against the Jaguars a month ago.  He will do it again.

For the Chargers last year, Rivers did the same against the Kansas City Chiefs twice, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Oakland Raiders, and Minnesota Vikings.  The Chargers lost all six of those games.

Rivers is a good guy and quarterback, but there is no more troubling trait for a quarterback than a penchant to throw interceptions.  It’s because of those interceptions Rivers has never played in a Super Bowl, and is not going to.  Again, this is not an attack on Rivers – it’s a simple accommodation of an unpleasant fact.

Click here for your copy of “Oops – the Art of Learning from Mistakes and Adventures” by Kent Sterling

This isn’t even a criticism of Colts general manager Chris Ballard, who signed Rivers to a one-year/$25 million deal to step into the breach as a replacement for Andrew Luck over the top of Jacoby Brissett.  Nor is this an indictment of Brissett, who is one of the better backups in the NFL.  When Andrew Luck walked away from the Colts just over 13 months ago, Brissett had the best chance to lead the offense to mediocrity – and he did.

After losing to the Browns, the Colts are 3-2 with two games remaining against poor teams that should launch them to 5-2.  Colts fans are going to be very pleased with Rivers after these two games.  They are going to believe Rivers has turned the corner, leaving his bad decisions and throws behind him.  Sadly, the next four games will be against the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers, and Titans again.

Those games will be seen as an opportunity for Rivers to confirm his position among the NFL’s elite, and it will not happen.  Rivers at the age of 38 is a known commodity.  He is who he is, and unfortunately, interceptions he threw in San Diego and LA were a part of the equation that kept the Chargers out of the playoffs five of the past six seasons.  And they are the reason the Colts have lost twice.

This isn’t an indictment of Rivers, Ballard, coach Frank Reich, offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, or owner Jim Irsay.  Elite quarterbacks do not grow on trees, and they rarely hit free agency.  The Colts had an elite quarterback in Andrew Luck, who suddenly bailed on his team.  He left the Colts to scramble to find a replacement.  Brissett was not it – and he didn’t project to become it.  Rivers was acquired as a stop-gap upgrade, and he has been exactly as expected for people who know what they ware watching on Sundays.  He is what he has been – and what he will be.

The Colts are building what they hope in a championship culture, and Rivers’ presence may provide a step in that direction despite the very remote possibility he remains the quarterback if it bears fruit.

We judge the Colts each week based upon the success or failure of each game.  The Colts failed yesterday because of three poor decisions by Rivers – including the safety that took the Browns to a two-score lead.  They succeeded the previous three weeks because Rivers failed to make critical errors.  It might be better for everyone if we watch the Colts without becoming jaded about predictable lapses and resulting losses.

The Colts are not going to the Super Bowl this year.  They may not go to the playoffs.  Because of his age and mistake prone performances, Rivers is not the franchise quarterback the Colts need.  Because he is indecisive and slow-footed, Brissett won’t lead the Colts to the Super Bowl either. Jacob Eason?  Who knows whether he will be the heir apparent to Johnny Unitas, Bert Jones, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck?  I love his arm, but there are reasons he fell to the fourth round.

Given the utter folly of current Super Bowl dreams, let’s enjoy the Colts with Rivers for what they are – a young team with an old quarterback that will win some and lose some.  Don’t get too high or low, and stay away from judging Ballard for signing Rivers.  He knew what he was getting, and we should see where to Colts are headed rather than wallowing in Rivers murky current of mediocrity.

The Colts are going to beat the Browns (and cover the 1 1/2) Sunday, and I’ll give you 10 reasons why!

The Colts are going to beat the Browns Sunday.  Here are 10 reasons why:

10 – Myles Garrett not enough to get to Philip Rivers.  Last week, NFL analysts spent a lot of time talking about how Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn, and Akiem Hicks would be all over Philip Rivers – causing him to throw it early and to the Bears secondary.  Rivers was sacked once in Chicago – and it was self-inflicted to keep the clock ticking toward the end of the first half.  This week, all people talk about is Garrett, who is averaging a sack and a quarter per game.  I’ll begin doubting the pass protection of the Colts when there is reason to – not before.  Certainly not this week – unless Anthony Castonzo can’t go – and then I may sing a different tune.

9 – Mo Alie-Colx is the top rated TE in the NFL.  I like Pro Football Focus stats in moderation.  What they provide is A tool – not THE tool to figure out how well players contribute to the whole.  But if Mo is leading the rankings, that deserves some mention in why the Colts are winning or will win.

8 – No lost fumbles for the Colts.  No statistic is more important in turning losses into wins – or vice-versa – than turnovers.  Not only have the Colts not lost a fumble this season, they have only fumbled once (Philip Rivers against the Vikings – recovered by Braden Smith).  This is a huge point of emphasis for running backs coach Tom Rathman, and was supposed to be a weakness of Jonathan Taylor.  So far, so good.

7 – Quarterbacks are a big reason teams win, but Baker Mayfield won’t be.  Mayfield is mediocre.  Under pressure, he has difficulty functioning.  His passer rating plummets when hurried, like most QBs who rank in the NFL’s bottom tier.  At best, Mayfield will not be the reason the Browns lose.  He will never be the reason the Browns win.  Think of Mayfield as a shorter, less-accurate version of Rivers.

6 – Rigoberto Sanchez is a better punter than Jamie Gillan.  Sanchez has had three punts returned in four games for a total of 18 yards.  Nine punts by Gillan have come back for a total of 81 yards.  This is a small part of a field position discussion – so let’s move onto that as the #5 reason.

5 – Field position battle will go to Colts.  Frank Reich talks about “hidden yards,” and no team is better at finding them than the Colts.  Because of midfield first downs and punts that stick opponents inside their 20, the Colts have a field position advantage of 12 yards per drive.  That might not sound like a lot, but it is often the difference between a punt and field goal.  Four El Lego field goals were the difference last week in Chicago, and might be critical this week too.

4 – Colts pass protection is stellar.  I alluded to this in #10.  The combination of the five offensive linemen, scheme, and Rivers quick release makes it very tough for opponents to either get to Rivers or hurry him.  According to Pro Football Focus, Rivers has been pressured a total of 27 times this season, and has not thrown a pick once under pressure.  When blitzed, Rivers completes 74% of his passes with a passer rating of 124.5.

3 – Julian Blackmon and DeForest Buckner were defense’s missing pieces.  Two areas of improvement for the 2019 Colts defense were a three-technique defensive tackle and a playmaking free safety.  General manager Chris Ballard addressed the first by acquiring Buckner in a sign and trade, and then drafted Blackmon in the third round to check the second box.  Buckner was expected to be a beast (and he has been), but Blackmon has been a huge surprise.  He’s excelled after a training camp on the PUP list as he rehabbed a surgically repaired ACL.  Malik Hooker’s torn Achilles opened the door for Blackmon to shine.  Last week in Chicago, his interception and three passes defensed were huge difference makers in the Colts win.

2 – Nick Chubb is down.  Regardless of the bad-assery of the Browns offensive line, losing the third leading rusher in the NFL is going to hurt.  The Browns will still be formidable up front, but Chubb’s absence will make the Browns offense less explosive, and it will take explosive plays to beat the Colts.

1 – Rivers is only throwing it to Colts.  The rap on Rivers when signed as a free agent after 16 years with the Chargers was that he will throw it to the other team too often.  Training camp showed Rivers as advertised.  He was precise on 20 throws, but made a bad read on the 21st and threw it to the defense.  It happened virtually every day.  Over the last two games, Rivers’ stat line has been clean of interceptions.  He benefitted from a Khalil Mack drop at Soldier Field, but he was still clean.  When Rivers throws less than two picks, his teams have been very tough to beat.  If Rivers throws it to Colts and only Colts Sunday, the Colts will be 4-1.

Here are eight finalists for the Pacers coaching job with odds for each being hired

Pacers president Kevin Pritchard will likely make a decision next week on who will lead his team.

On August 26th, the Indiana Pacers fired Nate McMillan.  Six weeks later, the search continues for his replacement.

Under normal circumstances this would be absurd, but these times are anything but normal.  COVID caused the NBA to move into the Orlando bubble where teams and their personnel are required to stay until eliminated or crowned champions.  We are likely one day away from the end of the NBA Finals, which means the Pacers finally have in-person access to two of the candidates they would like to interview.

Click here for your copy of “Oops – the Art of Learning from Mistakes and Adventures” by Kent Sterling

According to reports, the list of finalists for the Pacers job is quite long, and may include two Miami Heat assistants who will be interviewed once the Lakers end their impressive run in the bubble.  Let’s take a look at those who are said to be under serious consideration and the odds of their being hired.  Here they are – along with videos of interviews so we can get to know each candidate a little bit:

Darvin Ham (5-2) – Milwaukee Bucks assistant coach and former Pacer.  Ham played five minutes in a single game for the Pacers in 1996-1997.  He was hired as an assistant coach in Atlanta under Mike Budenholzer in 2013 and then followed him to Milwaukee.  He is said to be a excellent communicator trusted by players.  Malcolm Brogdon played for Budenholzer and Ham in 2018-2019, and speaks very highly of him.  That will carry some weight.

Dan Craig (7-2) – Miami Heat assistant coach.  The delay in hiring the next Pacers coach is due in large part to Craig’s continued responsibilities in the bubble.  Craig has been a member of the Heat family since being hired as a video intern in 2003.  In 2015-2016, Craig became the head coach of the Heat’s affiliate in the G-League.  They finished the season 40-10 and won the G-League championship before Craig was summoned back to Miami.  That Craig has been a part of the staff of a team without a bonafide star in the NBA Finals shows he has seen how what the Pacers covet can be done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF7PyPXiyuU

Nate Bjorkgren (4-1) (BEE’york-gren) – Kind of the north of the border version of Craig.  He is very well respected as a communicator and strategist on Nick Nurse’s Toronto Raptors staff.  Bjorkgren is not the most charismatic choice, but since when does charisma win NBA Championships?  He is smart, relentlessly positive, and might be a great fit with the front office as an economical choice for Simon Family ownership during a time when the mall business is not so good.

Dave Joerger (5-1) (YAY’ger) – Former Kings and Grizzlies head coach, who reportedly had a tough time getting along with the front office at both stops.  Joerger won with a solid roster in Memphis and lost with a very young team in Sacramento.  He is a proven commodity who is very well thought of by the Pacers front office.

Chauncey Billups (7-1) – 17-year NBA veteran without coaching experience.  Regarded as an exceptional leader during his career, Billups might be able to transition into being an exceptional coach.  Or maybe the grind is a little daunting for a guy who earned over $100 million during his career.  Billups would be the second most expensive option among the leading six finalists, and is going to have to sell the Pacers on his inventiveness and energy.

 

Chris Finch (9-1) – New Orleans Peicans assistant coach.  A nine-year assistant, Finch appears to be a coach who is rolling up some momentum as a head coach candidate.  Like Craig, Finch won a G-League championship (2010).  He is thought to be an innovative offensive coach.  Finch is credited with developing and exploiting Nikola Jokic in Denver, and DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis in New Orleans.  The Pacers, currently with Domas Sabonis and Myles Turner, could use some innovation to get those two to coexist on the court.

Mike D’Antoni (15-1) – Recently left the Rockets by mutual agreement after the Rockets were eliminated from the bubble.  He seemed to be ticketed for Philly before Doc Rivers became available.  The Rockets won more than 68% of their games in D’Antoni’s four seasons, but his teams (in Houston, as well as Phoenix, New York, and LA) never qualified for the NBA Finals.  He is viewed as a guy who plays to analytics – corner threes and layups.  D’Antonio is seven months from his 70th birthday, and would be expensive as a guy who was making almost $5-million per in Houston.  He’s not jumping back in for less.

Chris Quinn (40-1) – Miami Heat assistant coach.  To be honest, I had no idea the Notre Dame grad was on Erik Spoelstra’s staff before recognizing him as he lurked on the outside of a huddle during a timeout.  Only 37, he has been on the Heat staff for six seasons.  Is he the next Phil Jackson?  Who the hell knows?  He would be an out of the box hire as a coach without the resume’ of the other five.

This is a critical hire for Pacers president Kevin Pritchard, who needs to get this franchise beyond the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2014.  McMillan’s team performed to expectations in the regular season, but failed to win a playoff series in all four of his postseasons.

Who Pritchard tabs will give us a glimpse of what his plans might be for the roster, as Victor Oladipo enters the final year of his contract and Myles Turner’s value is likely at its zenith.

Dick Vitale’s tweet will make me laugh forever – I cannot stop

I can’t stop laughing.

After 40 years of annoying me and my dad before me, Dick Vitale finally made me laugh.

It’s not the typically obsequious message to Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker that Vitale intends that continues to make me laugh as I write, but the Twitter handle Vitale believes belongs to Baker.

I took a pic of the tweet because I have to believe Vitale will take it down after he sees his error.

I wish I lived in a world where THAT Dusty Baker could adopt @OGSwaggerdick as his handle.  Sadly, our world has a long way to devolve before we get there.

 

 

Open letter for sports media folks who lose their jobs – it can be the best thing that ever happens to you

If trends at Tribune Media continue, management will have no one left to fire but themselves in February, 2023.

Dear sports media professional-

I have some bad news.  You are going to get fired.  That’s the way it is.  It might be tomorrow, next week, or next year, but the day will come that an employer will tell you to pack a box – or have security lead you to the front door with nothing more than a promise your personal items will be shipped to you.  It’s not a matter of if, but when.

At least you believe it’s bad news.

If this report of your professional demise sounds heartless and dire, it shouldn’t.  It’s just the reality of the business you have chosen.  You know the day is coming.  Trying to avoid it is as pointless as trying to get Paul George to stop sounding like a tone deaf diva.

When that day comes, your mood will darken.  It will feel strange to have been asked to leave behind all of the people with whom you have built relationships, and forget the responsibilities that defined your value.  But there will be a dim light shining on the path you should follow.  It will be fueled by an objective truth – the people who fired you almost certainly did it for no other reason than your salary fit within the guidances of a corporate mandate for expense cuts.  It wasn’t personal or even professional.  It was financial. The decision was driven by simple math.

Here’s a peek behind the curtain of management to show you exactly how your demise will come to be.  A downturn in profits driven either by a COVID level crisis or manmade malfeasance with motivate meetings in every market where your company owns outlets.  At that meeting, upper management will present a dollar amount the cluster must contribute to cuts.  Your boss’s task will be to decide how to execute the expense reduction with minimal reduction in content quality and quantity, AND limited legal exposure to the company.

Empathy bosses will struggle with the cuts and spend sleepless nights dreading the execution of the plan.  Management will meet again – this time with Human Resources folks – to compile the list of personnel who will pay for the economic shortfall.  The schedule for the terminations will be set – likely a few weeks out.  That sets up the worst period of any manager’s life – the time between knowing and communicating with the affected employees.

Then a meeting is scheduled, and you can’t believe your ears.  Even if an HR person is in the room when you walk in, you will still be in denial.  But suddenly your worst fear is realized, and you go numb.  Whatever is said after “Today is your last day with the company,” is lost in the deafening confusion as you try to process the sudden change to your life.  You might cry.  You might not.  If you feel like punishing the manager, turn loose the waterworks!  It makes them feel wretched.

You call family to tell them, and hopefully they say what I’m going to tell you now – this is a gift.  Instead of being locked into a reality that limits your potential, you are now free to reinvent your career in the way you always wanted it to be.  You can work for the company of your dreams – or for yourself.  All the doors through which you were reluctant to walk are now unlocked and what’s on the other side is much less unnerving.

The first move to make is reach out to friends – not for a job, but to communicate with people who love you and will treat you like the human being you are instead of the victim of corporate cruelty you temporarily believe yourself to be.  Remember, you are not a casualty, but the recipient of an opportunity.  The limits of your professional freedom are now only limited by your financial needs and imagination.

I’ve known media people who were great at their jobs who were fired.  I mean the best in their field.  It’s the fit of the numbers on that Excel spreadsheet, not the quality of the work that gets you canned.  There is nothing that can be done to stop efficiencies from being employed over the top of your gig.  That’s just the way it goes.

Stay strong.  Keep grinding.  Brighter days are up to you to discover.

If you have an issue believing any of this or need a next step plan, shoot me a DM on Twitter @kentsterling.

Kent

 

Time is coming for Colts, but 2020 is not going to be their year for four reasons

I would love for Colts QB Philip Rivers to get to a Super Bowl, but the odds are long – really long.

Minds are being lost over the Indianapolis Colts 3-1 start.  Indulging in optimism is fine, but it’s time to ratchet back the hyperbole a couple of levels.

The Colts are in a beautiful position moving forward with tens of millions under the cap to spend (or not) during the upcoming offseason.  General manager Chris Ballard has done a very nice job of building the roster from the inside out, and the future is bright.  But the future is not now.

I’m sorry Bob Kravitz, but the Colts defense is good, not elite.  The offenses the Colts have played the last three weeks have been mediocre to putrid.  The offense has been mistake-free and efficient in controlling the ball against defenses that have had trouble stopping the relentless dinking, dunking, and running of the Philip Rivers led offense.

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I don’t want to be a dour naysayer, but I’m trying to save you from the inevitable disappointment that awaits us.

Here are four reasons dreams of a February trip to Tampa will remain dreams:

Opponents have been awful.  Even the Jaguars – who beat the Colts – are bad.  The Bears were the softest 3-0 in recent memory with a fatally flawed QB situation.  The Jets may not win a game, and the Vikings are ranked #23 among the 32 NFL teams.  The big tests come in November with games against the Ravens, Titans, Packers, and Titans again.  Split those games, and it will be time to get excited.

Philip Rivers is not elite.  Off the top of my head, let’s see how many quarterbacks I can think of who would definitively make the Colts better if they replaced Rivers – Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson.  That’s 10.  There is another tier of QBs who aren’t quite as obviously better but would be at least marginally better – Matt Ryan, Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr.  It’s hard to get to a Super Bowl without an elite quarterback.  There are exceptions like Joe Flacco, Rex Grossman, Nick Foles, and Matt Hasselbeck, but Rivers never playing in a Super Bowl is not a coincidence.  He’s very likable, talkative, and smart, but the arm and feet need to be their equal to get to a Super Bowl.  They aren’t.

Offensive line health cannot continue.  This group of starters have been together for an uninterrupted 20 games.  That is 17 more than the NFL’s next longest active streak.  It’s inconceivable that Anthony Castonzo, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, and Braden Smith will each start all 16 games for a second consecutive season.  Castonzo has a rib injury that may keep him out of this Sunday’s game in Cleveland.  The Colts like rookie Danny Pinter as a jack of all trades backup, but the drop-off between Castonzo and backup Le’Raven Clark is significant.

Opponents will adjust to Colts small ball offense.  The Bears dared the Colts to run by stuffing the box with eight defenders, and that is going to continue.  At some point, defenses will sell out against the run completely and Rivers’ ability to throw the deep ball will be needed to keep them honest.  That is likely not going to be a good day for the Colts.  Reverse engineering wins and losses is dangerous, but since 2015, Rivers is 19-5 when throwing fewer than 30 times (including 3-0 this season), and 19-41 when throwing 30+ times.

The Colts are a likable team who embody all the traits fans love.  They are selfless, diligent, and committed to daily improvement.  These are not divas, so they are very easy to root for – even for media types who are supposed to be indifferent to wins and losses.  It is not enjoyable for me to predict their January demise, but it is not the Colts time – not yet.

It’s more likely I will avoid a mixed metaphor than Rivers has to play in Tampa.  The Colts have a shooter’s chance to win the AFC South, but getting to the Super Bowl is a much longer and winding putt.  Sorry.

Eight reasons for cautious optimism about the Colts, who are not elite – not yet

Given their first four opponents, the Colts 3-1 record is what it should be – at worst.

The Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears are flawed teams with glaring holes.  If the Colts are going to return to the postseason, 3-1 was needed in the first quadrant of the season, and another 3-1 should follow in the next four games.  The Browns, Bengals, and Lions are mediocre at best before – finally – the Colts play a very good team in the Ravens.

Click here for your copy of “Oops – the Art of Learning from Mistakes and Adventures” by Kent Sterling

So what can we take away from the first 25% of the season?  Here are the top eight observations:

8 – Colts offensive line delivering as expected.  The Colts did well to run the ball for 103 yards yesterday as often as the Bears loaded the box with eight defenders.  Anthony Castonzo, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, and Braden Smith are taking some shots today because of the 2.7 yards per carry average on the Colts 38 runs, but the five best offensive linemen the NFL has ever seen can’t block eight guys.  They did a solid job given the circumstance, and they will need to continue to because teams are going to continue to dare the Colts to throw.

7 – Philip Rivers is as advertised.  He is a game manager, and there is nothing wrong with that.  Rivers will not win you games by flinging it deep, but as long as he doesn’t lose any with brain farts or deflected passes, the Colts can stack wins – especially against bad to mediocre teams.  When Rivers threw two or more interceptions for the Chargers last year, they were 0-6.  When throwing two for the Colts, they lost to a Jaguars team that has not won another game.  He got lucky yesterday when Khalil Mack dropped a tipped pass that should have changed the game.

6 – Julian Blackmon is an upgrade at free safety.  When the Colts drafted Blackmon in the third round last April, people thought it was a reach because the timetable for his return from a torn ACL had him active in mid-October at the earliest.  He healed quickly, so when starter Malik Hooker tore his Achilles, Blackmon stepped into the vacuum and fans quickly stopped lamenting Hooker’s absence.  His three passes defensed and interception yesterday were huge.  Because we are empathetic human beings, we hope Hooker makes a complete recovery, but from a football perspective Blackmon suits the Colts defensive backfield just fine.

5 – Injured wide receivers hurt, but not much.  The Colts ability to spread the field had been diminished by the injuries to Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman, but Rivers’ arm is not bomb-capable anyway.  The offense was always going to be fueled by the run and quick throws, so blazing speed was never going to be a massive asset.  After four games, Mo Alie-Cox-Cox is the Colts leading receiver with an average of less than 50 yards per game.  It would take a miracle for a Colts receiver to get the 1,000 yards mark, and that likely would have been the case had Campbell and Pittman stayed healthy.

4 – DeForest Buckner perfect three technique.  For two years we have been told the three-technique makes this defense go.  Buckner’s signing and the resulting double-teams against him have certainly freed up the other linemen – like Justin Houston – to wreak havoc in the backfield.  Houston’s 3.5 sacks project to 14 for the season, and the Colts seven picks over the last three games are the result of speeding up opposing QBs’ reads.

3 – Rigoberto Sanchez has been magnificent.  Each season, Sanchez gets just a little bit better.  He is a field position machine, relentlessly pinning opponents inside their own 20.  Yesterday, he put a punt in the end zone for the first time in over a year, and that really wasn’t his fault.  Given the lack of explosiveness from the Colts offense, a weapon like Sanchez is critical in making opponents earn yards and points.

2 – Don’t book your flights to Tampa for the Super Bowl yet.  None of the four teams the Colts have played are likely to make the playoffs, and the same can be said about their next three.  If the Colts start 6-1, optimism will run crazy high.  The media is already calling the Colts defense “elite.”  It isn’t.  It’s just been better than the last three terrible offenses against whom they have competed.  Let’s wait until they look good against the Ravens, Packers, and Steelers before we crown them the second coming of the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens.

1 – The Colts are set up to be good for a long time.  Because Chris Ballard didn’t go haywire over the last three years with Jim Irsay’s money, they are currently projected to be roughly $75 million under the salary cap this offseason.  As the cap is adjusted down because of COVID-related revenue losses, the Colts will be one of the few teams in position to acquire players or extend their own without contract acrobatics.

The Colts are a good team – not a great team.  But they are in position to build toward greatness because of Ballard’s drafts and targeted spending.  What the Colts are doing isn’t easy, but this might just be the beginning of something special.