Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Indiana Pacers – Paul George More Generous During Downturn, Despite Reports of Selfishness

by Kent Sterling

David Aldridge is a good NBA writer/analyst, but his assertion that Roy Hibbert called out Paul George for being selfish defies a cursory examination.

David Aldridge is a good NBA writer/analyst, but his assertion that Roy Hibbert called out Paul George for being selfish defies examination.

David Aldridge wrote a post on NBA.com in which he claimed Paul George is the teammate that Roy Hibbert was talking about when he said, “Some selfish dudes in here.”

“(Selfish offense) has been a problem for Indiana since February,” Aldridge wrote.  “And while no one will specify a name, it’s obvious that the person in question is All-Star Paul George. While Lance Stephenson occasionally pounds the ball, nobody handles or hoists the rock as much as George does.” 

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It’s impossible for national guys to watch as much of the local teams as the local media, but a quick look at the stats would have been a solid investment for Aldridge, who assumed because George shoots more than any other Pacer that Hibbert was talking about his locker room next door neighbor.

Here are George’s per game averages for minutes, shots, and assists, as well as the Pacers records during those games:

…………………………………………………………………Minutes        Shots         Assists      Record

  • First 20 games of the season             36.6          18.4            3.6            18-2
  • Last 20 games of the season            36.85         16.9             3.9           10-10

Shooting 2.5 times less and assisting on more baskets in virtually the same number of minutes is not evidence of selfishness.

George has taken 19-or-more shots in a game 28 times this season.  the Pacers are 20-8 in those games for a 71.7 winning percentage.  Forty-eight times, he has shot 18-or-less.  The Pacers are 33-15, winning 68.8% of those games.

What prompted Aldridge to infer George as the offender is best left to him to explain.  The numbers certainly don’t bear that out.  If someone sees a correlation between George shooting  and the Pacers losing, they are mistaken.

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……………………………………………………………Minutes        Shots         Assists      Record

  • First 20 games of the season       34.95           10.5            5.0            18-2
  • Last 20 games of the season        35.15          11.4            3.2           10-10

When Stephenson takes 13 or more shots in a game, the Pacers are 13-9.  When shooting 12-or-fewer times, the Pacers are 40-14.  That’s more relevant than any correlation between George shooting and the Pacers winning, , but don’t overlook Stephenson’s assist number as a predictor for success.  When he dishes five-or-more dimes, the Pacers are 28-4.  When he tallies four-or-fewer, they are 24-18.

That doesn’t necessarily convert to an automatic judgment that Stephenson has turned self-centered.  Prior to the all-star break, Stephenson averaged 5.1 assists.  After, the number dropped to 3.5.  That’s a relevant drop, but the Pacers haven’t shot as well either, and good passes leading to missed shots aren’t assists.

Isolating statistical rationale for the Pacers recent backslide is difficult because numbers in a vacuum can be misleading.  Stephenson hefting an extra shot and dishing more two assists each game cannot explain an eight-game difference by themselves, but one thing for sure is that George is in no way showing himself to be a more selfish player over the last 20 games.

[ed. note: if some of this looks familiar, I wrote a longer post this morning that contained some of the some data.  In this post – shorter by half – the relevant stuff is front and center.]

Indiana Pacers – Paul George Not Selfish; NBA Championship Still in Sight Despite National Media Write-Off

by Kent Sterling

Roy Hibbert might be frustrated today, the as the wins mount in the playoffs, that smile will return.

Roy Hibbert might be frustrated today, the as the wins mount in the playoffs, that smile will return.

National NBA pundits have to write something, and speculation about the reasons for the devolution of the Indiana Pacers makes for good copy.

The Pacers were riding high on January 20th with an NBA best 33-7, enjoying appearances on national talk shows, and leading Sportscenter with their feel good story of a star-free team committed to collective excellence.

Then things started to unravel, and frustration built.  That gaudy 66-win pace has now been adjusted down to 57, and the media is slinging handfuls of manure at a wall to see what sticks.  They ask questions that lead the previously honest and happy-go-lucky Pacers to publicly vent.

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The spotlight is fun when life is good and everyone is in love with you, but the attention becomes uncomfortable because the media is in business to cover (if not create) the arc of teams.  The triumphs and debacles of people and teams are interesting in equal measure, and are covered with similar zeal.

Narratives are the name of the game in media, and the Pacers rise, fall, and whatever comes next will drive consumption.  Either the Pacers will find redemption or continue their downward spiral into an abyss of self-loathing and ultimate disappointment.

Reporters and talk hosts will continue to ask about whether the Danny Granger trade, Andrew Bynum signing, Paul George appearance on the Jimmy Kimmel Show, Lance Stephenson all-star snub, Frank Vogel’s endless positivity, Larry Bird’s impatience, Boomer’s inability to convert the occasional dunk off the mini-tramp at the end of the third quarter, or front office exec Eddie White’s colorful attire and aversion to hugs are to blame for the recent shooting slump.

Here are some of the recent leads from national pieces and broadcasts about the decline of the Pacers:

  • “Indiana Pacers team president Larry Bird was only looking to tie up a few loose ends. He may have pulled one too many strings, though, and now the whole thing is unraveling.” Bleacher Report, April 1.
  • “I think Indiana is going to have trouble getting out of round two.  I am in the camp that there is something seriously wrong with this team…I really think the biggest issue…(is Lance Stephenson) getting snubbed from the all-star game was the beginning of the slide for this team.”   Bill Simmons on SVP & Russillo
  • “(Selfish offense) has been a problem for Indiana since February, and while no one will specify a name, it’s obvious that the person in question is All-Star Paul George. While Lance Stephenson occasionally pounds the ball, nobody handles or hoists the rock as much as George does. It is not a problem every night, though, and that is part of the problem.” David Aldridge, NBA.com in some statistically spurious analysis prompted by Roy Hibbert’s “Some selfish dudes in here,” quote.

According to Bob Kravitz’ column this morning on IndyStar.com, coach Frank Vogel told the team, “Guys should never air in-house stuff to the media.”  That’s good advice.  The media can be a beast, and feeding its hunger for great quotes is always a mistake.

Hibbert’s quote focused the narrative toward the selfishness angle until last night when the Pacers beat the Detroit Pistons 101-94.  The formerly selfish guys  in the midst of a collapse shot 49.4% and assisted on 61.5% of their field goals.  George scored 27 points on 19 shots, grabbed 13 rebounds, and contributed seven assists – not so selfish all of a sudden.

The criticism of the Pacers after the game seven loss in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals was that they didn’t have a go-to offensive guy, so Paul George went to work to try to become that.

The numbers paint a slightly different picture of George’s supposed selfishness – in the first 20 games of the season, when the Pacers were 18-2 and no one was complaining, George took 368 shots (18.4 average) during a per game average of 36.6 minutes.  In the last 20, when the Pacers are 10-10 and the train is reportedly off the track and careening down a ravine, George has taken 318 shots (15.9) in a slightly higher per game average of 36.85 minutes.  Shooting 2.5 times less in virtually the same number of minutes is not evidence of selfishness.

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George has taken 19-or-more shots in a game 28 times this season.  the Pacers are 20-8 in those games for a 71.7 winning percentage.  Forty-eight times, he has shot 18-or-less.  The Pacers are 33-15, winning 68.8% of those games.

Stephenson is a slightly different story.  In the first 20 games of the season, he took 209 shots (10.5 per) and averaged five assists.  In the last 20, he’s taken 227 shots (averaged 11,4) and averaged 3.2 assists.

When Stephenson takes 13 or more shots in a game, the Pacers are 13-9.  When shooting 12-or-fewer times, the Pacers are 40-14.  That’s a little more relevant, but not enough to draw a conclusion.  Stephenson’s assists are a for better predictor for success.  When he dishes five-or-more dimes, the Pacers are 28-4.  When he tallies four-or-fewer, they are 24-18.

That doesn’t necessarily convert to an automatic judgment that Stephenson has turned self-centered.  Prior to the all-star break, Stephenson averaged 5.1 assists.  After, the number dropped to 3.5.  That’s a relevant drop, but the Pacers haven’t shot as well either, and good passes leading to missed shots aren’t assists.

The far more likely cause of Hibbert’s frustration is the losing itself, and the most likely cause of the losing is the tired legs that worked extremely hard during the offseason, preseason, and first half of the regular season.

Part of the maturity of athletes and businesspeople is the understanding that grinding 20 hours per day may bear fruit in the short-term, but that pace is unsustainable, and causes a crash somewhere down the road.

The team-first ethos and laudable work ethic that caused fans to fall in love with this team is the most likely cause of the current rut in which the team in ensconced.

In March, the Pacers played 18 games (11 on the road) with a daunting five back-to-backs.  For the duration of the regular season and playoffs, the Pacers won’t have a single back-to-back, and travel in the playoffs is quite manageable.

Watch for the legs to bounce back, smiles return to the Pacers’ faces, the race go down the wire with Miami for the #1 seed, and the Pacers to earn their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals regardless of where Game Seven against the Heat is played, if it’s necessary.

It’s not attitude, the Granger trade, the Bynum signing, selfishness, of Eddie White’s fashion flourishes.  Basketball is about legs, and the Pacers are about to regain theirs.  It’s the media’s job to manufacture drama, but fans don’t need to buy it.  Sticking by the Pacers will pay off in June..

Former Indiana Basketball Cheat Kelvin Sampson Hired by University of Houston

by Kent Sterling

"I'm baaa-aaack!"

“I’m baaa-aaack!”

Well, it’s good to know that the University of Houston is so concerned about winning that a coach whose arrogance and stupidity ruined the Indiana University basketball program is their best option.

1070 the Fan’s Dan Dakich often quotes former Indiana State head coach Royce Waltman as saying, “Just don’t get fired for losing.”

Sampson was ousted at Indiana in February, 2008, for making impermissible phone calls that were facilitated by assistant stooge Rob Senderoff.  That series of violations came on the heels of violations for the exact same thing at the University of Oklahoma when Sampson ran that program.

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There is no doubt that Sampson can win games as a head coach, but the overriding message to the players he has coached is that rules are for boobs, and winning trumps all.  Nice piece of guidance there.

When Houston AD Mack Rhodes was hired in 2009, university president Renu Khator said, “Winning games is important, but helping young people be winners in the game of life is essential.”  Who better to teach them that than a coach who continues cashing checks despite being one of the worst violators in NCAA history.

With Sampson’s hire, Houston is confirming that people who claim “cheaters never win” are idealistic and naive.  Sampson now has a five-year contract that proves they do win, and Senderoff is the head coach at Kent State.  Where is Dakich, who has never broken a rule, and cleaned up Indiana’s post-Sampson mess?  He’s hosting a radio show in Indianapolis and doing great work as an ESPN analyst.

Young adults looking for leadership and guidance get a heavy dose of amorality from Sampson and Senderoff while Dakich entertains sports fans with unique perspective.  Dakich got the best of the deal, but the schools who are supposed to hire men that students can look up to are failing while TV programmers succeed.  Pathetic.

Former Indiana Athletic Director Rick Greenspan made the inane call to hire Sampson eight years ago, although it has always been rumored that former IU President Adam Herbert mandated that choice.  Either way, you will notice that both men’s names are preceded by the word “former”.

Sampson is 58-years old, and it would seem likely that six seasons away from college basketball has been a daily reminder that flouting the rules is no way to sustain a career in college coaching.  It’s not like Sampson missed many paychecks as an assistant coach for the Milwaukee Bucks and then Houston Rockets, but people thought he learned his lesson when penalized at Oklahoma too.

“How dumb would Sampson be to cheat at Indiana after cheating at Oklahoma?” was the question asked when Sampson was hired to rescue the Hoosiers from the incompetent clutches of Mike Davis.  People knew the definitive answer to that question two years hence.

Fans and media in Houston are asking whether Sampson could be so incredibly moronic as to violate NCAA rules yet a third time.  Fortunately for Sampson, the rules for contacting recruits have been modified, so they are more logical, and easier to understand and follow.  That will make engaging in subsequent violations more difficult, but where arrogance meets dumb, there is always a way.

Indiana Hoosiers Basketball’s course was forever affected my a man who appears to have emerged from disgrace mostly unscathed.  Now, another school is trusting him to avoid scandal.  I wish the University of Houston luck with that.

Fathers can now take sons to see the Cougars, point to Sampson, and say, “See that man?  He’s proving everyday that rules and morality don’t matter a damn as long as you win.  Remember that, son.”

Solid message for an institution purportedly dedicated to higher learning to advance by hiring an unrepentant program wrecker.

The coach who is a walking and talking plea for the NCAA’s need to enact a lifetime ban on relentless cheaters is back in the game, and Rhodes better say his prayers at night that Sampson has learned his lesson – finally.

NBA Retiring Michael Jordan’s Number Would a Hideous Error

by Kent Sterling

MJMost of us don’t know Jackie Robinson by anything other than reputation and bio-pics, but we are historically aware of the path he created for African American baseball players to join the major leagues and the torrent of negativity he endured as the first of his race to break the color barrier.

Anyone with a passing interest in modern sports knows who Michael Jordan is.  He was quite possibly the best basketball player in history, leading the Chicago Bulls to six NBA Championships that might have been eight straight if not for the diversion into baseball caused by the murder of his father.

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Without getting into behavioral specifics, one thing is sure, Michael Jordan is no Jackie Robinson.  Establishing a parallel between the only player who has been honored by a league wide retirement of his number, and a guy almost as well-known for gambling and egomaniacal rants as his on court exploits would be a hideous elevation of Jordan’s importance to basketball.

Robinson’s image is a sociological touch stone for a moment in history that remains exceptionally important.  Jordan has no cultural footprint whatsoever.

Other than being the first global marketing star from sports, from which he still cashes mega-checks, Jordan’s importance on the sports landscape is restricted to his work for the Chicago Bulls.  Robinson is a role model for every man and woman aware of his life’s work.

To ordain Michael Jordan as the “Jackie Robinson of basketball” by getting him similarly would do nothing but draw comparisons to baseball vs. basketball and Robinson vs. Jordan in ways that would diminish Jordan and basketball.

Was Jordan a great player?  He was the best I ever saw.  It should take a hell of a lot more than that to have his number retired by an entire league.

If the NBA wants to pay homage to someone of singular import to its league and game, it should wait until that man comes along.

It sure is not Michael Jordan.

Indiana Basketball – Sheehey to Play in All-Star Game; Academic Honors Announced; Post on Rumored Transfer Explained

by Kent Sterling

When a sixth banner is hung in Assembly Hall, fans should celebrate it being done the right way.

When a sixth banner is hung in Assembly Hall, fans should celebrate it being done the right way.

Just because the Indiana Hoosiers season ended in disappointment with the Big Ten Tourney loss to Illinois, the news doesn’t stop rolling out of Bloomington.

Senior Will Sheehey will play in the Reese’s D-1 All-Star Game at Cowboys Stadium.  If you are planning to attend the game in person, ignore the TV listing.  The game will be played Friday at 4:30p, and telecast on CBS on tape delay at Noon Saturday.  The Big Ten will also be represented by Drew Crawford of Northwestern.

*************

Four Hoosiers earned four spots on the Big Ten’s 2013-14 Academic All-Conference team.  Seniors Jeff Howard and Taylor Wayer, and sophomores Jonny Marlin and Peter Jurkin were honored.

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The list of honored student-athletes features 34 men’s basketball players from the 12 member schools.  To be eligible for Academic All-Big Ten selection, student-athletes must be letterwinners who are in at least their second academic year at their institution and carry a cumulative grade-point average of 3.0 or higher.

“Marni Mooney deserves the bulk of the credit for keeping our guys on task daily,” said coach Tom Crean.  “When you measure our APR, record of graduating players and the academic awards and honors our players have received recently, we believe we are as strong in this area as anyone in the country.”

Other Hoosiers who have earned this distinction at least once in the last five years include Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo, Jordan Hulls, Derek Elston, Matt Roth, Daniel Moore, Kory Barnett, Tom Pritchard, Brett Finkelmeier, and Tijan Jobe.

During Crean’s tenure, 21 players will have completed their degree requirements by this summer, and five have gone on to leave with master’s degrees.  Last summer, the NCAA recognized the IU men’s basketball program with an APR Public Recognition Award, which is given to high-performing teams that posted multiyear APRs in the top 10 percent of all squads in their particular sports. The Academic Progress Rate is a real-time measure of eligibility and retention of student-athletes competing on every Division I sports team.  IU had a perfect score of 1,000.

*************

I debated for several days whether I should write about a rumor I heard from two sources about the possibility of the Indiana coaching staff asking a current player in good academic standing to relinquish his scholarship.  Dealing in rumors is not something I engage in.  Everyone believes they know something, and many times rumors proffered by sources close to a program have no basis in fact.

Hell, some of the facts from those who actually do know things are a significant distance from the truth.  So what was the difference this time?  Why would I mention the rumor?

I decided to write the post (click here to read it) because to force a kid out of a program prior to earned his degree without some kind of insubordination is wrong – really wrong – and I don’t want Indiana or any other program to go there.  Not a lot of good happened on the court this year, but that doesn’t mean the ugliness should extend to a win-at-all-costs act brought to bear on a student-athlete.  And I don’t use the term ‘student-athlete’ as a default description of athletes attending college.

Indiana University portrays itself as a place where athletics feed the educational experience of students who compete for the Hoosiers 24 NCAA teams.  That makes the disconnect between the NCAA’s rules on compensation and the value of the work being done by athletes a little less out of whack.  If the players get a valuable education and degree in exchange for their athletic work, at least they leave with something.

If a player is stripped of his scholarship because the coaching staff needs it to recruit another player to improve the on-court product, that is in opposition to the mission of collegiate athletics.  If a kid is recruited, signed, and does all he is asked in workouts, practice, and in the classroom, he should be allowed to continue to work toward his degree.

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I wrote about this in advance of any action being taken because I want people in power to think twice about joining those programs careering down the slippery slope of win-at-all-costs behavior.

The entire issue might be moot as Indiana lost Temple grad transfer Anthony Lee to Ohio State, and late period target Yante Maten is reportedly leaning toward signing with Michigan State.  The removal of those two potential Hoosiers may make an additional scholarship unnecessary.

Fans should want Indiana to win, but win the right way.  Mistakes are made by the best recruiters, but those mistakes should not be corrected at the expense of a kid who has done nothing wrong but not be as good as an incoming freshman might be.

I would rather write something on the front end to raise issues that might resonate with decision makers than wait until the deed is done to cry foul.  Journalistically, writing about a rumor was not a call that I wouldn’t applaud, but as a human being I’m fine with it.

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Indianapolis Sports Media Twitter Rankings for March – Indy Star Builds Better Than Anyone

twitterPrint may be dying, but the content produced by the Indianapolis Star certainly isn’t.  The way the Twitter followers of the Star staff grew in March, maybe the death of the ink stained wretches can be forestalled for a good long while.

Media is about providing unique content, and by using Twitter to convey it, the number of followers goes up.  Take it seriously, and a serious number of people with whom to communicate to be gathered.  It’s not just a one way street either.  Very quick conversations can take place, and connections built that just a few years ago required a typewriter and stamp.

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Those who thought print would vanish quickly refused to account for the reason that people consume media.  It’s not the conduit – whether newspaper, radio, TV, magazine, or smoke signals – it’s content, and people will find the information or perspective they want.

Mark Ambrogi, Stephen Holder, and Candace Buckner made great gains this month, and should be congratulated.

It’s not about where anymore, but what and how.  The playing field is changing, but the game is the same.  Those who embrace it will thrive, and those who scoff will be passed by.

Kind of an exciting time to be in media, isn’t it?

Sports Radio in Indy

  1. Kent Sterling – 1070 the Fan      6,504 to 7,015        +7.9%
  2. Michael Grady – 1070 the Fan          11,700 to 12,300         +5.1%
  3. Conrad Bruner 1070thefan.com       6,981 to 7,300            +4.6%
  4. Derek Schultz – 1260 WNDE             4,709 to 4,921             +4.5%
  5. Mark Boyle – Pacers play-by-play    9,770 to 10,200           +4.4%
  6. Dan Dakich – 1070 the Fan                72,700 to 75,800        +4.3%
  7. Greg Rakestraw – 1070 the Fan         6,402 to 6,658            +4.0%
  8. Jake Query 1260 WNDE                    8,731 to 9,050              +3.7%
  9. JMV                                                        22,700 to 23,400        +3.1%
  10. Eddie White – Pacers Postgame        5,245 to 5,388             +2.7%
  11. Kevin Lee – 1070 the Fan/NBC         6,955 to 7,070             +1.7%

TV Sports Anchors/Reporters in Indy

  1. Chris Denari – FSIN                  10,600 to 11,100         +4.71%
  2. Jason Spells – RTV6                          2,053 to 2,149                +4.68%
  3. Rich Nye – WTHR                              5,303 to 5,535                +4.4%
  4. Dave Calabro – WTHR                      10,100 to 10,500           +4.o%
  5. Charly Arnolt – Fox 59                       3,123 to 3,230               +3.4%
  6. Anthony Calhoun – WISH                7,173 to 7,409                +3.3%
  7. Chris Hagan – Fox 59                         5,638 to 5,820              +3.23%
  8. Larry Hawley – Fox 59                       1,581 to 1,631                +3.16%
  9. Brad Brown – RTV6                           581 to 599                      +3.1%
  10. Dave Furst – RTV6                             5,036 to 5,188               +3.0%
  11. Jeremiah Johnson – FSIN                4,791 to 4,930               +2.901%
  12. Amanda Maynard – WISH               1,104 to 1,136                 +2.899%
  13. Chris Widlic – WISH                         1,775 to 1,818                 +2.4%

Print/Digital – all with Indianapolis Star unless otherwise noted (beat in parenthesis)

  1. Candace Buckner (Pacers)         5,797 to 6,443          +11.1%
  2. Stephen Holder (Colts)                     11,000 to 12,200            +10.9%
  3. Mark Ambrogi                                      2,231 to 2,411                 +8.0%
  4. Zach Osterman (IU Hoops)               6,311 to 6,695                +6.1%
  5. Kyle Neddenriep (Preps)                  12,800 to 13,400            +4.7%
  6. Mike Chappell (Colts)                       17,800 to 18,600             +4.49%
  7. Bob Kravitz (columnist)                   42,400 to 44,300            +4.48%
  8. Zak Keefer (Butler)                              5,415 to 5,643                +4.2%
  9. Dustin Dopirak (Bton H-T)               8,267 to 8,563                +3.6%
  10. Mike Wells (Colts/ESPN)                 29,100 to 30,000            +3.1%
  11. Phil Richards                                         3,241 to 3,316                +2.3%
  12. Michael Pointer                                     3,978 to 4,062               +2.1%
  13. David Woods (IU Football)                 5,921 to 6,005               +1.4%
  14. Phillip B. Wilson                                 16,500 to 16,700             +1.2%
  15. Curt Cavin (Racing)                            13,200 to 13,300            +0.6%

Digital

  1. Chronic Hoosier (hoosierchronicles.com)  18,100 to 18,700  +3.3%
  2. Tom Lewis @IndyCornrows                                           5,123 to 5,261        +2.7%
  3. Jeff Rabjohns                                                                  16,800 to 17,200     +2.4%
  4. Mike Pegram  @peegs                                                   14,100 to 14,400      +2.1%
  5. Terry Hutchens (Fox – IU)                                            13,300 to 13,500     +1.503%
  6. Alex Bozich @insidethehall                                          20,400 to 20,700    +1.47%
  7. Ken Bikoff @kbikoff                                                       2,085 to 2,102          +0.8%
  8. Jim Reamer @HHR_Reamer                                      4,853

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Indiana Pacers – Are Tired Legs the Problem? Statistics Say Yes

by Kent Sterling

Paul George's 23 year-old legs should be able to bounce back quickly with just a little rest.

Paul George’s 23 year-old legs should be able to bounce back quickly with just a little rest.

Legs provide the power.  Arms and hands serve as the guidance system.  That’s a very basic schematic for how a basketball is shot accurately.  When the legs are tired, arms and hands bridge the power gap, and precision suffers.

Strong legs are the key to making shots, and the Indiana Pacers have not made shots during the recent five losses in six games stretch.

During the preseason, the Pacers workouts were awesome.  I don’t use that word like a 12-year old for whom everything in the world is “awesome!”  The effort given throughout was almost game speed, and I was amazed.

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The first preseason game against the Bulls was a flat-out war.  It was a much better game with significantly improved effort than any I had seen from 2007-2011 when the majority of the fans who showed up for the games spent most of their time in the bars throughout the Fieldhouse instead of watching the “action.”

Nothing changed through the beginning of this season – hard work at practice, and tenacity in the games were the rule.  Off to a 33-7 start, the Pacers appeared to be the dominant team in the NBA who might just win the franchise its first ever NBA Championship.

And then the bottom fell out, or so fans thought.  Since the January 20th 102-94 win at Golden State, the Pacers are 19-16, but worse – they have lost five of their last six while scoring more than 78 points only during the lone win against the Miami Heat.

Fans are ascribing the fall to all sorts of extraneous stuff – the Danny Granger for Evan Turner trade, Andrew Bynum’s signing, Paul George’s appearance on Jimmy Kimmel, and Lance Stephenson’s all-star snub among them.

The truth is like much less interesting.  The endless work and passionate dedication to winning a championship has sapped the strength from the Pacers legs.  Including the preseason, the Pacers have already played 83 games, including 18 in March, during which there were five back-to-back games on consecutive nights.

Statistics bear the tired leg theory out.  From November 6th-15th, the Pacers went 5-0 against Chicago, Toronto, Brooklyn, Memphis, and Milwaukee (a stretch chosen because of similar opposition) by hitting 41.9%, 46.2%, 46.3%, 48.7%, and 50.6% of their shots.  That’s an average of 46.6% from the field.

During the last six games over the previous ten days from March 21st-31st, the Pacers went 1-5 against Memphis, Chicago, Miami, Washington, Cleveland, and San Antonio.  They hit 36.5%, 37%, 37%, 35.4%, 37.2%, and 37.7% from the field for an average of 36.8%

If you want a reason for the struggles the Pacers have endured, field goal percentage is the most profound factor.  Hit nearly 50%, and you win a lot of games.  Hit 36.8%, and get used to losing.

Even worse, the Pacers have allowed their opponents to hit 43.6% of their shots over the last six games, while restricting the victims during the five-game winning streak cited above to a field goal percentage of 39.3%.

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There is a lot that goes on to affect field goal percentage than legs – sharing the ball, setting good screens, making good decisions with the ball, and passing accurately to a shooter, but there is nothing like tired legs to simultaneously make all of those things difficult.

Paul George, David West, Luis Scola, and Roy Hibbert have played all 75 games, and even more importantly, all of these guys give an honest days work in practice and in their own workouts.

So is there hope that the Pacers will recapture their mojo, and ability to knock down shots?  Sure there is.  Remember the end of the 2012-2013 season when the Pacers limped into the playoffs, losers of five of their last six games.

The Pacers will not play another back-to-back through however long their run in the playoffs last.  Beginning with today’s day off, the Pacers will enjoy one, one, one, two, one, and two days off between games through the end of the regular season.  Four of their final seven games are against losing teams, and not just losing teams, but bad losing teams like Detroit, Atlanta, Milwaukee. and Orlando.

It’s a good bet the Pacers will get stronger throughout the remainder of the regular season, and continue to thrive in the postseason.  Whether that means they will be able to finally wrest home court from the Heat is what will likely determine their success in the Eastern Conference Finals.  At least I hope the series goes seven, if all the games are like the last Pacers/Heat war on March 26th.

If we knew the answer to how this will end, what fun would that be?  That’s why we watch.

Indiana Basketball – Additional Transfers Will Be Difficult to Justify

by Kent Sterling

Jeremy Hollowell is no longer a part of the Hoosiers. I get that one, but any subsequent transfers will be hard to understand.

Jeremy Hollowell is no longer a part of the Hoosiers. I get that one, but any subsequent transfers will be hard to understand.

Rumors waft through media workrooms this time of year, and I heard one the other day that did not please me.  It’s not Tom Crean’s job to please anyone in the media.  He answers to his players and athletic director Fred Glass, but the fallout for another transfer will be far less tolerant than was the case a week ago when five players left.

The cases for the transfers who bid adieu to Cook and Assembly Halls last week making that decision on their own are reasonable.

Noah Vonleh is headed to the NBA as Indiana loses its first one-and-done player.  Leaving for millions and the potential tens of millions coming a year sooner after year four in the league is entirely understandable.

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Austin Etherington wants to play with his brother or at Butler.  He always seemed like a guy with a Butler skill set/size.  Played well at Indiana, but family is important to Etherington and his brother is at Indiana State.  Dad played for Butler.

Jeremy Hollowell never seemed a fit at Indiana.  Always seemed to be quite near misery on the floor and bench.  If Crean instigated transfer, it’s likely that it was a favor.  Hopefully, Hollowell finds the opportunity he was seeking when he committed to Indiana, and has the discipline to achieve it.  His suspension early in the season was a portend of things to come.

Jonny Marlin left his scholarship at IPFW for a walk-on role at Indiana.  He has two years of eligibility left, and Indiana has a lot of guards.  If Marlin is transferring because he wants to play, that is understandable, and after his sophomore season is the right time.

Joe Fagan says he is leaving because he’s pre-med and needs to concentrate on academics.  Okay.  When walk-ons playing for the love of the game like Marlin and Fagan leave, I start to worry that there is something wrong with a program.   In the absence of evidence to the contrary, I’m willing to accept the most obvious answer for all five players leaving the program, including Fagan’s focus on what will be his career.

But if rumors are true, and a sixth player leaves because he is pushed, that is going to be a different issue entirely.

While scholarships are only required to be single year grants, barring a screwy incident or series of incidents that makes obvious a student’s inability or lack of desire to continue to function as a student or player, the coach and school are honor bound to maintain the scholarship.  If it becomes obvious that he will be unable to meaningfully contribute to the team, that’s too bad for the coach.

Either the coach made a mistake in recruiting a player who cannot find his way into the rotation, the player was unable to develop, or there were intervening injuries.  Either way, the player should be allowed to continue as a student on scholarship.  Indiana under Crean has never – to my knowledge – run a kid before he received his degree without ample reason, and that’s the way the Indiana culture should continue to operate.

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My skepticism about this rumor from a normally reliable source is Indiana’s track record, and the questionable need for a seventh scholarship in the upcoming freshman class.  Three spots are filled by James Blackmon Jr, Max Hoetzel, and Robert Johnson.  Crean is pursuing Josh Cunningham and Yante Maten.  Temple’s Anthony Lee committed to Ohio State as a grad transfer, so where Crean might go with two additional scholarships – even if he gets Cunningham and Maten is anyone’s guess.

It should not be at the expense of a current student-athlete in good standing.

Indiana has to stand for something, and treating its students like human beings instead of easily replaced widgets should be at the top of the list.

Chicago Cubs Opening Day Used to Bring Hope to Loyal Fans; Now It Just Makes Us Feel Dumb

by Kent Sterling

There is no reason better to mourn the fate of the 2014 Cubs than the continued hope that Darwin Barney will magically become offensively competent.

There is no reason better to mourn the fate of the 2014 Cubs than the continued hope that Darwin Barney will magically become offensively competent.

When I was a kid, I remember feeling good about an infield of Steve Ontiveros, Ivan DeJesus, Manny Trillo, and Bill Buckner.  The 1977 Cubs were worthy of hope – at least through 70 games before a mind bogglingly abrupt collapse.

My Dad laughed at me when I waxed rhapsodic about a pitching rotation of Rick Reuschel, Ray Burris, Bill Bonham, and Mike Krukow.  Actually, he gave me that “you should know better” look that kids who growing up Cubs fans have seen over and over again since the Earth cooled.

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I took the train to Wrigley Field several times that summer with Nick Anson, and loved every minute.  This was back in the day when parents thought nothing of a couple of kids hopping on the Northwestern in Lake Bluff, switching to the Howard at Davis Street, and walking a block west from the Addison stop to the ballpark that in 2014 celebrates its first century of hosting an unending parade of ultimately disappointed fans.

In 1982, I thought the Cubs would finally get over the hump when Bump Wills led off the season with a home run in Cincinnati as the Cubs eked out a 3-2 win.  That I allowed for a moment just a tiny window of hope (there’s that word again) for a team that trotted out Doug Bird as its opening day starter speaks either to my enormous capacity for optimism or remarkable stupidity.  You decide which.

If the 1977 rotation was incapable of winning more than it lost, what the hell did I think was going to happen with Bird, 39-year old Fergie Jenkins, Dickie Noles, Randy Martz, and Allen Ripley?  Again, a call to my Dad should have been a wake-up call.  He grudgingly indulged my whimsical belief that at some point the Cubs would win, and then said, “Allen Ripley, Kent.  Allen Ripley.”

With the Cubs 0-0, and a front office that at least made an effort to improve the roster, Opening Day was as good as it got throughout my youth and well into adulthood.

The misery of kids raised as Cubs fans in 2014 must be incalculable.  The kindly knowing glances from fathers who knew better in the 1970s have been replaced with a light smack to the back of the head and a stern, “Are you out of your mind!” admonition.

The Cubs starting rotation in 2014 is slated to be (career won-loss mark in parentheses) Jeff Samardzija (29-35), Edwin Jackson (78-89), Travis Wood (26-35), Jason Hammel (49-59), and Carlos Villanueva (40-43).  The likely trade of Samardzija before the July 31st deadline certainly won’t help, and neither will the best players in the organization opening the season in Iowa and West Tennessee.

There is no rational justification for hope this season as the brilliant ownership of Tom Ricketts prefers to avoid spending the cash necessary to improve the roster until the farm system starts sending talent north, but the Cubs don’t want to start the kids’ major league clock until the team has a chance to win.  If this sounds like a consciously implemented cycle of doom that’s because it is.

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The Cubs have lost a lot over the years, but even during the strange odyssey of the college of coaches in the early 1960s, they were trying to win. In 2014, everyone knows there is not only a zero probability of playing in the postseason, there isn’t even a pretense of effort being made to compete.  Meanwhile ticket prices will again be among the highest in the game.  Maybe fans can enjoy the antics of the new mascot that ironically bears my Father’s name “Clark” – a cruel twist that would have resulted in a stern letter and maybe a cease and desist notice were Dad still alive and seething.

The past two and three year runs were the losingest in the history of Cubs baseball, and the message from Ricketts, team president Theo Epstein, and general manager Jed Hoyer is a resoundingly limp, “Help is on the way – in 2016!”  The greed and arrogance of this group should bring only two responses – the sadness of lost hope for children who haven’t seen enough to know better, and a refusal to pay top level major league prices for bargain basement baseball.

Perfect Final Four Set – Plenty to Root for in Wisconsin and Florida; Plenty to Root Against in Calipari and Kentucky

by Kent Sterling

Whatever the results at Cowboys Stadium, the drama will be thick.

Whatever the results at Cowboys Stadium, the drama will be thick.

Once your favorite team or alma mater is eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, all you can really hope for is context so you have someone to root for and/or against as the Saturday semifinals tip off.  There is plenty of both heading to Cowboys Stadium.

The only team about which their is no passion – at least outside of Storrs, Connecticut – is UConn.  They are the mediocre seven-seed that found their mojo and went on a roll, but arouse no national angst or love.  Shabazz Napier has become a great college basketball player as a senior, but whether Kevin Ollie’s Huskies win or lose is of little interest to non-gamblers.  The other three teams all provide plenty of reason to watch and cheer.

Wisconsin is headed to the Final Four for the first time under Bo Ryan, who has long been the best coach in the Big Ten not to reach a Final Four.  Ryan’s career is a little different from the typical marquee coach.  He started as a junior high coach, and worked his way up through Sun Valley High School in Pennsyvania to be an assistant at Wisconsin to head coach at Wisconsin-Platteville – where he won four NCAA DIII national championships – and Wisconsin-Milwaukee before getting the gig with the Badgers in 2001 at the age of 53.

Since then, Ryan has never finished outside the top four in the Big Ten, and has qualified for the NCAA Tournament every year.  If you can’t find a reason to pull for Ryan, you aren’t looking very hard.  He works exceptionally hard, has no interest in the spotlight, and builds consistent winners without a hint of impropriety.

Ryan and the Badgers represent all that is good about college basketball.  They win the right way, and they win consistently.  A national championship would be a wonderful valedictory moment for an under-the-radar great coach.

Incredibly, this is 48-year old Billy Donovan’s 18th season at Florida.  Even more odd, when conversations about the top five or ten coaches in college basketball are had in bars outside of Gainesville, his name is rarely mentioned until later when someone digs deep and the rest of the guys at the table say, “Oh yeah, how’d we miss him?”

Donovan draws very little attention to himself in the media, preferring to invest his energy in the kids who play for him.  The Gators have played in seven elite eights, qualified for their fourth final four this year, and have a chance to win their third national championship under his leadership.

Among the top seven Gators in minutes are four seniors – Casey Prather, Scottie Wilbekin, Patric Young, and Will Yeguete.  Nine of the players on the roster are from Florida.

If Florida can lay claim to a team of players that was built not bought, Kentucky is what they always are under John Calipari – a collection of highly touted freshmen who would likely have been drafted into the NBA if not for the draft ineligibility of those not yet one year removed from high school.  Sometimes that scheme works, and sometimes it doesn’t.

Last season, the mismatched parts of the Wildcats roster were eliminated in the first round of the NIT by Robert Morris.  This year, the recipe clicked late, and Kentucky found their collective heart.  Winners of three straight games against teams who played in last year’s Final Four, Kentucky has a mix of athleticism, size, and execution that has proven a very difficult match-up.

Sure, it would be nice to watch college basketball played by college students hoping to earn their degree while playing, but Big Blue Nation doesn’t worry themselves about such trivialities.  Status in the Blue Grass is measured by banners, not degrees.  That makes Kentucky my villain in this tournament – or any tournament.

As long as Florida beats the seventh-seeded UConn Huskies, the championship game a week from tonight should be great TV.  With only three teams qualifying for the tournament, the SEC was a longshot to place both teams in the championship when 68-teams began the quest to crown a champ.  Now, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all.

I would love to see Florida play Wisconsin in the final, with Ryan cutting down the nets.  A lifetime of hard work by the coach from Chester, PA – a hardscrabble paper mill town – resulting in a trip to the mountaintop of his profession at the age of 66 would be a great story.

Donovan’s team winning it all would be my second choice.

A bunch of freshmen awaiting entry into the NBA Draft from which they were forbidden last year – not such a great story.  But it would beat UConn winning it, the only team about whom I am apathetic.  At least with a Kentucky win, I would have something to gripe about until November.