Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Washington Redskins Collapse Could Make RG3 Trade Best in NFL History for St. Louis Rams

by Kent Sterling

Regardless of how well RG3 plays under a new coach, the trade to acquire him could be the all-time worst in NFL history.

The 2011 St. Louis Rams were terrible. They finished 2-14 with an oddly dominant win over the New Orleans Saints and a 13-12 squeaker in Cleveland. As a result, they earned the #2 overall pick just behind the equally horrific Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts were committed to Andrew Luck, and with Sam Bradford in place as the quarterback in St. Louis, the Rams had no use for Robert Griffin III. They traded that pick to the Redskins for the #6 and 39th pick in 2012, and first rounders in 2013 and 2014. The 2013 first round selection was the 22nd overall, and now we know that the first rounder in the upcoming draft will be the #2 pick.

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The Rams traded the #6 pick to the Dallas Cowboys for the #14 and #45 picks. That #45 pick was sent to the Bears for the #50 and #150 picks.

Okay, the Rams turned the #2 pick into DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, and G Rokevious Watkins as their compensation in the 2012 draft.

Last year, the Rams spun the #22 pick from Washington (along with a 2015 seventh rounder from New England) to the Atlanta Falcons for the #30, #92, and #198 picks. OLB Alec Ogletree was taken at #30 and WR Stedman Bailey (#92) were taken with two of those picks. The #198 was packaged with the Rams own sixth rounder for the Texans fifth round pick which was used to take RB Zac Stacy.

So, going into the 2014 draft, the Rams have reaped the following bounty for the pick used to select RG3:

Michael Brockers – starting DT – 5.5 sacks in 2013
Isaiah Pead – So far a bust; now returning kickoffs
Janoris Jenkins – Starting CB with four picks for a TD as a rookie in 2012
Rok Watkins – Gone to KC
Alec Ogletree – Led Rams with 95 tackles as a rookie in 2013
Stedman Bailey – Had two starts at end of rookie season; averaged three catches last five games of rookie season
Zac Stacy – Started last 12 games and totaled 973 yards rushing; four 100 yard rushing games.

Plus, the Rams start all over again with the same exact pick they traded in 2012 that they turned into five starters. The Rams also have their own pick at #13.

Trading down from a #2 that might yield OT Jake Matthews, QB Derek Carr, DE Jadeveon Clowney, or one of another half dozen players who might get hot at the Senior Bowl or NFL Combine, and the Rams could reap a similar bounty of picks. If they are as shrewd this time around, they could net another five starters. That would be a total of 10 starters for the pick that allowed the Redskins to choose RG3.

The most lopsided trade in NFL history is currently the Herschel Walker deal that sent Walker and four draft picks from Dallas to Minnesota for five players and seven draft picks that included Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, Alvin Harper, Dixon Edwards, and through another trade using assets from the Walker deal – Russell Maryland.

Walker never ran for 1,000 yards in Minnesota, nor did he win a playoff game there. The Cowboys won three Super Bowls in four seasons with a nucleus gained in the trade.

A close second was the trade that sent the draft rights of John Elway to Denver for Mark Hermann, Chris Hinton, and Ron Solt.

If the Rams get lucky again, they could find a path to making this trade continue to reap dividends in perpetuity.

The Rams have been the youngest team in the NFL for the past two seasons, and given the opportunity for a minimum of the #2 and #13 picks in the May draft, they aren’t likely to get older anytime soon. Oddly, the Rams have either earned or acquired the #2 pick four times in the last seven NFL Drafts, and have not enjoyed a winning season since 2003.

Chicago Bears – Today Should Be Black Monday for Jay Cutler; Change at QB Needed

by Kent Sterling

Jay Cutler rarely looks engaged, and plays like that often enough that a Joe Flacco-esque extension is unwarranted.

Jay Cutler is not a bad quarterback, and the Chicago Bears didn’t lose to the Green Bay Packers yesterday because of his play. But the Bears don’t win enough with Cutler to justify a pricey extension that will prevent the Bears from using their money to bolster other areas of need (like the worst rushing defense in the NFL).

“It’s a Wonderful Life” is a holiday movie staple that allows humdrum banker George Bailey to see what life would have been life for others if he had never been born. Depending upon the quality of the life led, the chance to view it as though you never existed can be a gift or a curse. Cutler, Bears fans, and the media got a solid glimpse of the Bears offense without Cutler, and nothing backup Josh McCown did during his five starts made anyone pine for Cutler’s return.

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With Cutler as a starter in 2013, the Bears were 5-6. McCown led the Bears to a 3-2 record. No one would argue that the 34 year-old McCown is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but his comparative success in running Marc Trestman’s offense is undeniable.

In his five starts, McCown threw 11 touchdown passes and only one pick. His passer rating was never below 90 in any of the starts, and in his last three starts came in at 102.4, 114.9, and 141.9.

Cutler’s quarterback rating in 2013 was 89.2 – the highest of his eight-year career. He three 19 TD passes and 13 picks, including one yesterday.

In only one season has Cutler managed to lead his team to the playoffs – in 2010, when the Bears lost to the Packers in the NFC Championship at Soldier Field.

The reason to move on without Cutler has nothing to do with last night’s inability to beat the Packers in a winner takes the NFC North battle, but in the consistent mediocre-to-good play that has kept his Bears and Broncos from excelling.

Cutler will turn 31 in April, and that means that past is prologue for the native of Santa Claus, Indiana. He isn’t going to have a breakthrough season. Cutler will be the quarterback that he has been, and that level of play, especially as the defense has unraveled, will not be enough to propel the Bears deep into the playoffs.

The unfortunate truth for Cutler is that he will never be the best quarterback in the NFC North or a top ten QB in the NFL, and doesn’t have a package of attributes that will allow him to enter the elite club of NFL quarterbacks. Minus a dominating defense, it takes an elite quarterback to win in the NFL.

At no point in his career has Cutler been elite, or shown himself capable of playing at that level.

The Bears will sit down over the next two months to decide whether the risk that the offense will take a step backwards without Cutler as they try to rebuild their defense is worth letting him leave. Allowing Cutler to sign with the Vikings, Raiders, Jaguars, or other club in need of the kind of upgrade Cutler would represent is not without downside. If Cutler signs with the Vikings, and Minnesota goes 8-8 while the Bears drop to 6-10, someone is going to get fired.

Because NFL coaches and GMs are especially keen on retaining their jobs, Cutler may have the leverage needed to stay in Chicago. Minus the fear of unemployment, there is no justification for keeping a quarterback whose decision making creates turnovers, and leads to wins roughly as often as losses (56-49 in eight seasons).

Let me pose a question to you to gauge your ability to make the right call in a potentially sticky situation:

You are the quarterback of an NFL team drinking a few beers with teammates at a bar with three teammates in the city where you play. A table of similarly sized athletic guys from a rival NFL team’s city start to playfully make jokes at your expense. What do you do?

A – Rush to the table, and throw a punch at the biggest of the guys.
B – Call the manager over, complain, and ask that the guys be removed from the bar.
C – Diffuse the situation by buying a round of beers for the table.

Selection A is an old school option that might get you sued, and would almost surely land you on TMZ. Choosing B is a weasel play that shows you are unwilling to solve a problem yourself. Buying a bucket of beers shows you are a good guy, and likely results in winning the guys over. You show yourself that you are a good guy yourself, and even though rivalries make for friction among fans, there is no quicker way to win a guy’s admiration that buying him a free beer.

In this exact situation, Cutler called over the manager and had some member of Loyola’s basketball team tossed from a north side bar. If a team can’t trust a quarterback to make the right choice in a simple social situation, how can a team invest $50 million over four years in him.

So unless the Bears front office chooses job security over the chance to succeed, Cutler will be the latest Bears gunslinger to fall short, and the latest to fail to be the Bears starter for a sixth consecutive season. The last Bears QB to start the most games for six straight seasons – the late great Ed Brown who did it from 1955-1960 while also serving as the punter.

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Indianapolis Colts – Performance Becoming Easier to Predict as Wins Mount

by Kent Sterling

Assessing what the Colts need to do to beat a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t brain surgery. Getting the players to execute a game plan design to cause those results is the tough part, and Chick Pagano’s players have become apt pupils the last three Sundays.

The Colts 30-10 pasting of the hapless Jaguars was the third consecutive double digit win, and carried them to a perfect 6-0 record against their AFC South brethren. They enter the playoffs as the #4 seed because the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals won their games to secure the second and third seeds, but might be playing as well as any NFL team.

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For the second time in three weeks, the Colts will play the Kansas City Chiefs for the right to travel to either Denver or Foxboro, but that’s putting the cart before the horse. Today’s win was as impressive as it was easy to predict.

On Friday, I posted the five keys to a Colts victory, and the Colts came through as predicted in most areas. Here are the keys and results (hey, I’m not right all that often, so excuse my self indulgent back slapping):

Stop the run (or make Chad Henne beat you) – When Jacksonville runs the ball for more than 100 yards, they are 3-1. During their lone loss with 100+ rushing yards, they gave the ball away four times. Maurice Jones-Drew is only 28, but that’s 12 in dog years, which is 84 in people years and 164 in giant tortoise years. He’s averaging a career low 3.5 yards (previous low – 4.2 yards), despite relative good health. He’ll split time with Justin Todman, whose 261 rushing yards were principally a result of a 109 yard effort two weeks ago against the Bills. The Colts have allowed less than 100 yards rushing only twice in 2013 – in week seven against the Broncos (64), and week four against the Jags (40).

The Jaguars totaled 42 yards on the ground on 16 carries, and Maurice Jones-Drew might have played his last game as a Jag without a lot of fanfare – or production. The free agent-to-be ran the ball 13 times for 39 yards. His longest carry was for only six yards. With a quarterback like Chad Henne, there was no way for the Jaguars to compete without being able to run the ball.

Run right, left, and middle – When the Jaguars allow more than 100 yards rushing, they lose. When they hold teams to less than 100 yards, they are 4-1 – the one loss coming to the Arizona Cardinals, when Bruce Arians decided to beat them through the air. The Cards racked up 402 or their 416 total yards through the air.

The Colts decided that throwing the ball was a more effective way to attack the suspect Jacksonville defense. They ran for 80 yards, while throwing for 299. None of the Colts averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry, but it was enough to move the chains, and put 30 points on the board. I missed this one, but the Jags threw me a curve ball by being terrible at every area of defense.

Take it away – The Colts have generated nine turnovers in their last three wins. They have a total of 22 takeaways in their 10 wins, and two takeaways in five losses. Wow. I had to check that twice to make sure that was right. They are 8-0 in games that feature two or more takeaways, and 2-5 in those that don’t. I just read that to my son, and he said, “There always some correlation with numbers, isn’t there!” All these years talking about the relevance of statistics, and that’s the return volley I get.

This is the brain dead key every week. There is no event more important to the result of an NFL contest than giveaways and takeaways, and that worked in the Colts favor today as safety Antoine Bethea picked off a Chad Henne pass and Darius Butler scooped up a Jones-Drew fumble, while the Colts managed another clean day in the turnover department.

Questionable offensive linemen heal – I’m not sure the Colts will have an offensive line available for the game Sunday if somebody listed as questionable on the injury report isn’t able to play. Jeff Linkenbach, Mike McGlynn, Hugh Thornton, and Joe Reitz are all questionable. The franchise will need to leave the field upright for the Colts to have hope for postseason success, and the men standing between Andrew Luck and the angry if untalented Jaguar pass rush are all that will keep him healthy. If I’m offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, I’m going to have Luck hand the ball to backs and throw quick passes.

Luck was sacked only once, and was hit only four times. That’s a relatively safe afternoon for Luck, so it would be foolish to criticize the offensive line for anything – regardless of whether Nixon or Reitz or McGlynn or Thornton played.

Execute the first four keys – Yeah, this is cheating as a fifth key because if the Colts execute the first four keys, a fifth is unnecessary. This game comes down to the Colts having enough healthy bodies up front to be able to move the chains by running the ball, and forcing the Jags to cough put it on the turf. Knowing what needs to be done is the easy part of football. Implementing a game plan is what the coaches get paid for. Predicting the level of success the Colts will enjoy from week-to-week is a fool’s errand, and for that reason, I’m among the smartest gamblers in the world because I don’t bet games – ever.

Total cop out on the fifth key. The route to success against the Jaguars is not complicated, so there was no need for a fifth.

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Colts win 27-9, and will be seeded fourth as the Bengals and Pats both win.

That’s pretty damn good for me. If I was regularly that good at guessing scores, I would be betting on games instead of writing about them.

So now the real football starts, and the first test is against the Chiefs. The Colts figured out how to beat them soundly on December 22nd at Arrowhead, so if the Colts have truly become more predictable, beating them shouldn’t be a problem. We all know better than that, but let’s wait until Wednesday to anoint Alex Smith the second coming of Joe Montana and Jamaal Charles another Roger Craig.

They are the Chiefs – and the Chiefs spent the 2013 season beating bad teams while losing to the good. The combined record of the 11 teams they beat is 58-116, while those who they lost to finished the season 55-25. Minus Dallas and Philadelphia in weeks 2 and 3, the Chiefs haven’t beaten a team with a winning record.

That’s a topic for another day. Tonight we celebrate, and I gloat.

Star Studded “Ahead of the Curve” with David West, Robert DeNiro, and Sylvester Stallone Coming at 11a on 1070 the Fan

by Kent Sterling

Every Saturday is special because Fox 59’s Chris Hagan and I get the chance to talk sports on 1070 the Fan and 107.5 FM, and we try to take full advantage of it by booking great guests and making sure we are ready to talk Colts, Pacers, Bulldogs, and Hoosiers.

Today is different though. Hagan gets to talk to the stars of “Grudge Match.” Robert DeNiro and Sylvester Stallone sit down to talk about imitations of their on camera personas and the physical demands of being really old while training for a boxing movie. Chris does a great job with these interviews. He’s superb at making people feel comfortable, and he always gets the best stuff out of guests.

We’ll also talk to David West about tonight’s game against the Brooklyn Nets. Getting a Christmas game is supposed to be an honor for NBA teams and players, and we’ll ask David whether or not he would prefer to play on Christmas.

And what the hell is going on with the Pro Bowl selections? The Colts are likely to be 11-5 after tomorrow’s game, and could be one of four teams in the NFL with a first round bye, and only Robert Mathis is worthy of an invitation to Hawaii? There is a chance that more could be named after the conference championships as there might be some replacements needed because of the Super Bowl, but there are two takeaways from the snub – the Colts get little national respect, and Chuck Pagano must be the coach of the year to coax a division title out of such a mediocre group.

The show is shortened by 30 minutes this week because of the Butler vs. NJIT game. The Butler pre game will air at 12:30p, so that’s when we’ll bow out. While listeners will be enthralled by the call of the Bulldogs latest conquest (we hope they can beat the D-1 punching bag from the Garden State), we could talk for six hours about the Week 17 NFL match ups and their playoff implications.

“Ahead of the Curve” is always the highlight of my week, and today listeners will get the best we have. Throughout the week, I write post after post at kentsterling.com about Indiana and national sports that serve as a great method of show prep.

The Colts have a chance to roll into the playoffs with momentum, the Pacers look like a team that can do the impossible by bringing focus to all 82 regular season games, and the fortunes of Indiana, Purdue, and Butler basketball are completely unknown. Add the Chicago Cubs bogus bidding for Masahiro Tanaka, the Louisville vs. Kentucky game, and continued bowl game onslaught, and putting together today’s show isn’t so much about what to talk about as it is deciding what to leave out.

As always, I can’t wait to get started.

Chicago Cubs – Bidding for Masahiro Tanaka Has Nothing to Do with Winning

by Kent Sterling

Masahiro Tanaka will take his nasty splitter, willingness to be exploited for ‘Ladies Night Out’ events, and his pink tux somewhere other than Wrigley, but the Cubs will win the battle they are really fighting.

The Chicago Cubs will pledge to write a $20-million check to be eligible to bid for Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who was an astonishing 24-0 last season for the Rakuten Golden Eagles.

Teams with truly deep pockets will engage in the serious bidding while the Cubs will play the game at which they have become more adroit – talking, alibiing, deflecting, projecting, and selling.

Owner Tom Ricketts and president Theo Epstein will say they did everything they could to compel Tanaka to take their bid seriously, and claim that theirs was the highest among the Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks, but Tanaka chose to play elsewhere for one of a dozen very good reasons.

They will use the $20 million posting pledge to show their seriousness in improving immediately as justification for keeping ticket prices among the highest in baseball without actually spending a dime to improve the roster, which is delightfully devious even for Ricketts and Epstein.

The game the Cubs are playing is to avoid winning as long as possible while still inspiring hope among the most easily duped fans in sports. Cubs fans can’t be blamed for mistaking activity for progress. They haven’t seen a winner in their lifetime, unless they are 105 or older. The day is quickly coming when the oldest person in America won’t have been alive when the Cubs last won a championship. Hell, my Mom is 72, and she has no recollection of the Cubs last trip to the World Series when she was four.

Tanaka might be a bad risk anyway. Who knows? The Cubs won the bidding for another can’t miss prospect from Japan before the 2008 season. Kosuke Fukudome never hit .300, regularly struck out 100+ times, and was caught stealing as often as he wasn’t (29 times) in his five year major league career.

The point isn’t whether Tanaka is a top line starter or back of the rotation guy. It’s the overt duplicity being used by the Cubs to maintain credibility with fans where none should exist. Signing Edwin Jackson falls into the same bucket. Epstein knew damn well that Jackson is one of baseball’s most average professional starters. He eats innings and wins at a slightly lower rate than the teams from whom he pitches, but the Cubs could point to him and say, “See, we’re trying to win in 2013, so buy tickets!”

Keeping expectations low while maintaining enough hope so fans don’t feel stupid for buying tickets or team-related swag is the blueprint used by the Cubs, and they are pretty good at it. The Cubs are to its fans as Mega Millions is to people who want to become rich. The odds of winning are impossibly small. If you were seated in an arena with 18,499 others, the odds of someone in your arena winning the jackpot would be 14,000-to-1. So you’re saying I’ve got a chance! Cubs fans with hope to see credible major league baseball in 2014 might as well play Mega Millions.

The Cubs will bid, but not because they want him to be a Cub. They will pledge the $20M because it’s worth that effort to claim to fans an honest effort to improve the team in the short term, while having no real desire to actually do it.

It would be a great strategy if the victims weren’t the sadly dopey bastards who were willing to pay the third highest ticket prices in baseball to watch a bottom feeder team in 2013. The Cubs are the Ponzi schemers of MLB. Bernie Madoff is in prison for doing to investors what Rickstein is doing to Cubs fans.

Media in Chicago continue to carry Rickstein’s (the unholy amalgam of two very smart crooks) water, saying that the Cubs will not be competitive until 2016, and that the farm system was in such terrible shape when former GM Jim Hendry was canned that this was the only way to rebuild. That is, of course, abject nonsense, but that absurd company line is being toed by the media like they are Cubs employees.

The question with the Tanaka bid is why the Cubs would bother. There is no chance he would choose to pitch for the Cubs. Everyone knows that. Epstein and Ricketts apologist Dave Kaplan said as much on WGN-Radio Christmas Night, “The Cubs will lose on Tanaka, but not because they get outbid.”

What Kaplan didn’t say is that the Cubs know Tanaka is headed elsewhere, and that they would never post for the right to outbid deep pocketed franchises like the Yankees if there was a chance in hell that he would choose the Cubs.

To the naive, $20 million is a lot of cash to threaten to spend for nothing in return, but the Cubs will get plenty back – plausible deniability.

At some point, the year for the Cubs being competitive will roll over to 2017. When it does, you can tell your friends that you know that Sterling kook – that conspiracy theorist who sees through the shell game the Cubs play with their fans – saw it right all along.

Indianapolis Colts – Five Keys for Victory Over Jacksonville Jaguars

by Kent Sterling

If the Colts could choose their Week 17 opponent as they gear up for the postseason and fight for a higher seed – perhaps even a first round bye – the decision would be a no-brainer. They choose the Jacksonville Jaguars.

With due respect to the putrid football being played by the Washington Redskins and Houston Texans, the Jags are the only team in the NFL without a single dynamic player. They are mediocre-to-bad everywhere, and should have no chance at all to beat any playoff team – especially one that bludgeoned them 37-3 earlier in the season at their place.

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But this Colts team is capable of playing some pretty bad football themselves. If the team that lost at home 38-8 to the St. Louis Rams shows up Sunday, the Jags have a shot at ending their season on a high note – putting together a 5-3 second half.

The Colts have a mind-boggling 27 players on their injury report, including 16 on IR. Safety Antoine Bethea is doubtful after playing a very solid game at Kansas City, and normally that would be a problem, but against Jacksonville, a weekend of rest and healing before the real season begins isn’t all bad.

The Colts easy answer for beating the Jags is to do everything they did on September 29th, including outrushing them 157-40, outgaining them through the air 280-165, and winning the turnover battle 3-1.

There are some differences for the Jags this time around. Benched is Blaine Gabbert, replaced by Chad Henne. You’re right in thinking swapping Henne for Gabbert is like trading in a 1974 Pinto for a 1976 Vega (younger readers – those two cars were not only humiliating to drive, but potentially hazardous). Henne has not had a 100 passer rating in any of the 12 games he has started this season, and hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since receiver Justin Blackmon’s suspension.

Still, before we get all nutty and think this is a walkover, the Jags are 4-3 since their bye. Those four wins were against Cleveland, Tennessee, and twice against Houston, but who are the Colts to scoff at wins against AFC South opponents?

We take all opponents seriously at kentsterling.com, so here are the five keys to beating the Jaguars this Sunday:

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One more time, here are the Colts playoff scenarios – lose and they are the fourth seed. Win and the Bengals beat the Ravens in Cincinnati and Patriots beat the Bills in Foxboro – the Colts are the fourth seed. Now, the good stuff – win and the Bengals win while the Patriots lose – Colts are the third seed. Win and the Bengals lose while the Pats win – Colts are the third seed. Win while both the Bengals and Pats lose, Colts earn a first round bye as the #2 seed.

Colts win 27-9, and will be seeded fourth as the Bengals and Pats both win.

NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat – Who Will Be Replaced? Mike Shanahan Leads the List

by Kent Sterling

You want this crazy bastard as your boss, or the 31 other billionaires who own NFL teams? There will be plenty of openings in a week.

First things first – if you are going to fire a coach, the owner or general manager should have a strong idea who they are going to hire as a replacement. The worst scenario possible is to fire a guy of whom you thought highly enough to hire a few years ago and then not be able to get the guy you covet this time around.

Hiring the guy who is seventh on your list is a nightmare, but it happens every year to a team or two, and it guarantees a return to the carousel in a couple of years.

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Minus Jason Garrett, we can assume the decision has been made to fire or retain their current coach. Even with the Cowboys job, Tony Romo’s injury might drop the expectations for this Sunday’s winner-take-all tilt against the Philadelphia Eagle for the NFC East title low enough to keep Garrett from coaching for his job this weekend.

Of course, Garrett isn’t responsible for the den of mediocrity in Dallas, but the guy who is sure as hell isn’t going to fire himself because he owns the Cowboys.

Some of these moves are no-brainers, and others might be dependent upon the availability of the right replacement. None have coached their teams up to the level of fans’ expectations, and fair or not, that’s the bar coaches need to hit to keep their gigs.

Mike Shanahan – Washington Redskins (24-39 in four seasons; 170-137 in 20 seasons) Odds 1-10 he’s gone

Owner Daniel Snyder is a billionaire, so the $7 million it will require to compel Shanahan to walk away might be psychologically unpleasant, but not bring the level of financial hardship that would dissuade him from acting proactively to regain a foothold of hopefulness among season ticket holders.

Shanahan has been a poor fit for an activist owner, and so is Robert Griffin for the Shanahan offense. RG3 is the future of the franchise, and he can’t be excited about a future with Shanahan as the coach. Shanahan will be handed enough cash to comfortably live two lifetimes.

The loser in this deal is Kyle Shanahan, who will have a tough time getting a job from a head coach with whom he does not share DNA.

Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions (29-50 in his fifth season) Odds: 1-2 he’s gone

He is the anti-Chuck Pagano, who gets more out of his talent than anyone has a right to ask. In the thoroughly mediocre NFC North, the Lions had the division crown handed to them by injuries to the starting QBs of the two contenders. Schwartz and the Lions have dumped five of their last six to fall out of contention.

Not only have they lost when the team could least afford to, Schwartz screamed last week from the bench at home fans who dared voice their displeasure as the Lions botched a must win to the Giants in OT. The face of a franchise needs to be on very secure footing to treat with disdain the people who pay the bills with their season ticket renewals.

The Lions almost have to fire Schwartz to maintain calm among their fans.

Leslie Frazier, Minnesota Vikings (20-32-1 in three plus seasons) Odds: 1-2 he’s gone

Frazier gets a raw deal here as he will likely be canned after the Vikings game against the Lions (likely to be the last game for both Frazier and Schwartz). It’s almost impossible to win without a franchise quarterback, and Christian Ponder, Matt Cassell, and Josh Freeman need not apply for that status.

The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the NFL, and Frazier is a defensive minded coach from the Buddy Ryan tree. On paper, they appear to be a team that can succeed by controlling the ball and clock with Adrian Peterson and a stout defense. Yeah, not so much.

Frazier will be punted because their is no other reason to inspire hope among Minnesotans than a change at the top. Rumors are swirling that the Vikes are talking to Bill O’Brien at Penn State. O’Brien deserves better than being doomed to failure in the Twin Cities.

Mike Munchak, Tennessee Titans (21-26 in three seasons) Odds: 3-1 he’s gone

Hard to hold Munchak accountable for the 21-26 record the Titans have posted in his three seasons. In year one, Matt Hasselback was the quarterback, then Jake Locker in year two. Because of Locker’s injury plagued 2013, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been under center for all or parts of ten games.

After three seasons, the personality of the Titans is still not well-established and that might make Munchak one of the coaches whose replacement might bring a positive result, but blaming him won’t be warranted until another bad year passes.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants (89-70 in 10 seasons with the Giants – 157-130 in 18 seasons overall) Odds: 4-1 he’s gone

It’s sad that Coughlin seems unable to escape rumors that he will be fired. Year after year, this two time Super Bowl champ seems to dodge bullets. The Giants had a terrible start, losing their first six games before rallying to win six of nine, and that might be enough for this almost certain hall of gamer to be treated like one.

That run fell short of allowing the Giants to creep back into the race for the NFC East title, but it should allow enough hope to remain for him to keep his job. The team continues to listen to Coughlin, or they would have folded their tent at 0-6.

At 67, Coughlin is much closer to the end of the line than the middle, but over his career, Coughlin has gone 157-130. There aren’t many NFL coaches with that track record of success. In only six of 18 seasons have his teams lost more than they won.

Truly offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride might need to go as someone should pay for a league worst 41 turnovers.

Could Coughlin resign rather than risk being canned if they have another bad season in 2014? Maybe, but he doesn’t seem like a quitter, or a coach blinded by the glimmer of his own legacy.

Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys (29-26 in three-plus seasons) Odds: 9-2 he’s gone

Being the head coach of the Cowboys might be the worst job in sports. To be forced to coach the talent acquired by owner/GM Jerry Jones is bad enough, but having to answer questions based upon his wacky and constant ruminations must be like stepping into the seventh circle of hell every time he sees a microphone.

Garrett being fired would be amnesty more than termination.

The best part of Garrett keeping the gig would be that no one else would be tempted to accept the job.

I think Garrett keeps his job because he has managed to keep his sense of humor through an obviously unpleasant chapter in his life, and because there are other areas where blame is better invested – like on the head of defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.

Rex Ryan, New York Jets (41-38 in five seasons) Odds: 6-1 he’s gone

In his first two seasons, Ryan took the Jets to the AFC Conference Finals – no easy feat with Mark Sanchez as the quarterback. The question with Ryan is whether another coach could be expected to take a step forward with a team that lacks an obvious franchise quarterback, legit running back, or top receiver.

If the Jets win this weekend, they will be 8-8 – a quality result for this roster filled with mediocrity.

Ryan stays because it’s irrational to believe another coach would prompt an upgrade in results.

Mike Schiano, Tampa Bay Bucs (11-20 in his second season) Odds: 8-1 he’s gone

The Buccaneers are irrelevant, as would be any team with the inoffensive Mike Glennon at quarterback. Can Sciano’s rah-rah schtick work in the NFL? I don’t know. The Bucs are +11 in turnover ratio, but are 4-11 for the season, so there are things wrong here that need to be addressed immediately. They have gained fewer yards and gained fewer first downs than any team in the NFL, but the defense hasn’t been bad.

If the Bucs lose Sunday and are even steven on turnovers to finish +11, my guess is that they will be the first team in NFL history to lose 12 while winning the turnover battle by double digits. I’ll look that up once the season ends.

After losing their first eight games, the Bucs have rebounded to go 4-3 since. Four of the Bucs’ losses were decided by three or fewer points, but two of their four wins were also by three points. That gives reason for hope, and hope equals continued employment given rational evaluation.

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons (60-35 in his sixth season) 50-1 he’s gone

Any talk about Smith being canned is craziness. The Falcons are 4-11 this year, and when a team falls from elite status this quickly, sometimes a coach gets swept out by the undertow. But Smith was 56-24 going into this season, and coaches who can lead a team to more than twice as many wins as losses over five seasons are not easily found.

The rushing offense is dead last in the league, and the primary reason is free agent Steven Jackson. It’s hard to blame SJ39 for everything, but every team he has played for has been awful – or nearly awful. While his performance was often the best thing on dismal Rams teams, it’s impossible to ignore Jackson aggregate win loss record of 49-110.

We are neither here to bury Jackson, nor praise him, but regardless of who the back is for the Falcons, Smith will certainly return.

Dennis Allen (8-23 in two seasons) Odds: No line for Raiders coaching moves – too unpredictable

I don’t know what Allen does that is unique, and I don’t care. The Raiders are terrible, and changing coaches hasn’t helped since Jon Gruden was (sort of) traded to Tampa over a decade ago. The coach who began a season for the Raiders has not survived past the following season, so one thing the Raiders management should have learned is that the coach has not been the cause nor the solution to their problems.

If he’s fired, I hope Allen’s severance is righteous so he has time to get his bearings before pursuing other gigs.

Billionaires like screwing around with their toys, so who knows what might happen with head coaches in the NFL? The unpredictability of the irrational isa one of the best parts of watching professional sports rather than working in it. Anything can happen in the NFL, and it usually does.

Christmas Is a Day to Enjoy Friends and Family, and Leave Sports Until the 26th

by Kent Sterling

I like Norman Rockwell, but there are so few TV’s in any of his paintings.

As I write this, ESPN is blaring in the background. Shelley Smith is droning on and on about Clay Matthews and Aaron Rogers. Will they or won’t they play against the Bears Sunday afternoon in the game that will determine the NFC North champion? There will be a time to care about that, but for me it won’t be tomorrow.

There are so few moments when technology stops long enough for us to enjoy an actual conversation, but Christmas is a day when the madness stops just long enough for us to remember there are other people in our lives, and we actually possess the ability to be engaged by a human being rather than the graphics and drama of televised professional and collegiate athletics.

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Talking to people about life doesn’t happen very often, but on Christmas we get to scratch the almost completely numb itch to ignore everything but those in front of us. Television be damned, and to hell with sports – at least on Christmas.

To actually look at people as we talk to them, and make comments about what and who we see and hear is such a quaint notion that it must seem to teenagers like black and white TV on four channels was to those who grew up in the 1970s.

We require relentless input, and sports is the choice of focus for many of us. It takes discipline to unplug from the TVs that we have in every room. Some have even taken to putting TV’s in the can. Magazines aren’t enough for us anymore, and God forbid we became centered enough to sit on the toilet alone with our thoughts.

I go for walks at least once a day because it’s unthinkable for me to turn off the TV when I’m in the house. When I run on the treadmill at Lifetime Fitness, I watch either “The Price Is Right” or “Maury” on the TV that is attached to the machine. When you google “waste of time,” Maury Povich’s face pops up on the screen.

Technology keeps us from fully experiencing our own lives, or confronting the meaning of what we do on a daily basis. For some, that’s a really good thing. “When was the last time I was proud of my contribution to humanity” is a question most of us would rather not ask.

Minus TVs, tablets, smart phones, laptops, PS4s, XBoxes, and desktops we would be left to ponder the idea that we actually do something, and that’s a daunting prospect.

Christmas is the one day we can all grow a set and do something. There are times during the holidays that we actually dig into our pockets to give a buck or two to The Salvation Army as those people we curse ring their annoying bells. After all, The Salvation Army’s slogan is “Doing the Most Good.” That sounds a hell of a lot easier than doing some good ourselves. Better them than us, that’s for sure. If it costs me a couple of bucks to fund their efforts, that works.

Just so you know, I’m not yelling at you. This isn’t a rant about society busying itself with meaningless and hollow pursuits, but about my own inability to sit quietly and relax. I read periodically, but not enough. I write quite a bit, and I suppose that’s a redeeming activity. Trying to tell the truth is laudable on some level – even if sports is the conduit for those truths.

I care too much about what doesn’t make a damn bit of difference – like sports. After all, who gives a damn whether 53 men with whom I am barely acquainted from the same city where I live play football with enough precision and fury to beat another group of 53 men from another city? That shouldn’t be more important to me than whether 53 (or many more) men and women have something to eat, or are freezing their asses off because they don’t have a pot to piss in, a bed to sleep in, or food to eat.

But it is. I sit in my house with my wife and son watching sports, and then I talk and write about it the rest of the time.

Christmas reminds us that there is more to life than the petty diversions in which many of us indulge. I’m glad it only comes once every 365 days. I would hate to feel as silly as I do on Christmas every day.

Why Sunday of NFL Week 17 Is the Best Sports Day of the Year – Jason Garrett Said It Best

by Kent Sterling

Week 17 brings such emotional upheaval that Cowboys coach Jason Garrett just said, "I feel great about Kyle Orton." No one at the press conference laughed.

Week 17 brings such emotional upheaval that Cowboys coach Jason Garrett just said, “I feel great about Kyle Orton.” And no one at the press conference laughed.

The media coverage of the NFL regular season’s final day is just phenomenal. The run up to the final regular season Sunday beats the hell out of the playoffs by any measure. Almost every team plays for something, many teams play for their lives, and many players are fighting for their careers.

That makes today through 1p Sunday, December 29th the most fun a sports fan can have.

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As if the drama needed another element, the Dallas Cowboys are ready to announce that Tony Romo will sit out the rest of the season with a winner takes the NFC East coming Sunday.

The Bears host the Packers with a quarterback controversy ready to explode in Chicago if Jay Cutler can’t get the Bears past the Pack, and Rodgers hoping to be cleared to play. Back-up Josh McNown played his ass off to keep the Bears from falling apart after Cutler suffered a groin injury followed by a high ankle sprain, and Bears fans have never expressed their undying devotion to Cutler regardless of injury.

The AFC is total chaos with the Patriots in as the champion of the AFC East, but a team that could ascend to the #1 seed or drop to #4 if they lose at home to the Bills and the Colts and Bengals both win their games.

Going into the game tonight, the 49ers could fall all the way out of the playoffs with a loss tonight and then a loss at Arizona in the season finale. Arizona, at 10-5, needs some help to get into the postseason, even if they win the final game against the 49ers if the 49ers win tonight at home against Atlanta. If the 49ers win tonight and the Saints win at home against Tampa Bay, the Cardinals are out.

And what about the wild cards in the AFC. Kansas City is the only team locked into a postseason seed at #5, but the sixth spot is up for grabs among Miami, Baltimore, San Diego, and Pittsburgh. The combination of wins and losses needed for each to get in is so complex that it would drive my Finite Math professor at Indiana University to the Clock Tower armed with the laundry basket full of water balloons.

After 16 weeks of football, only Detroit @ Minnesota, Houston @ Tennessee, and Washington @ Giants have no effect on the postseason, but the Texans and Redskins are playing for the #1 draft pick. If the Texans lose, they earn the top pick. If the Redskins lose and the Texans end their losing streak at 13, the Rams will own the #1 pick by virtue of the last piece of compensation in the trade for the #2 pick in 2012 used to draft RG3. If the Rams trade down again, they could receive a similar bounty in another trade, which would likely make the RG3 trade one of the worst in the history of the NFL.

That leaves only one game on the schedule during the last day of the season that has no significant bearing on the season. As with great books, the last chapter should bring some magic, and Week 17 pays off exceptionally well year after year.

There is just no way not to head to a Buffalo Wild Wings or similar bar with a wall of TVs to watch the celebration and mourning.

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If the MLB, NBA, and NHL lament the ascension of the NFL to the top spot among American sports fans, they need only look at Week 17 to determine why.

Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett just uttered the unlikeliest combination of words, “I feel great about Kyle Orton.” If that doesn’t communicate the stress and wonder of this magical sports week, I don’t know what does.

Indianapolis Colts – Chuck Pagano Is the No-Brainer NFL Coach of the Year

by Kent Sterling

Chuck Pagano is best known as a cancer survivor, but his work in 2013 with the Colts should change that.

Forget Sean Payton. Forget Ron Rivera. Forget Pete Carroll. Forget Bill Belichick. Chuck Pagano has done a flat out incredible job of maximizing a mediocre Colts roster for a second straight year.

They weren’t that great when camp broke, and injuries ravaging skill positions on the offensive side of the ball have done nothing to improve things for the Colts, but they keep winning and winning.

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Before this season, the talk was about how the Colts played in good luck in 2012, responded to Pagano’s diagnosis of cancer by bonding and fighting, and were the beneficiaries of Bruce Arians’ aggressive mojo.

Gone are the cancer, Arians, and supposed good luck that allowed the Colts to compile a record of 11-5 despite being outscored over the course of the 16-game season by 30 points. By earning a 9-1 record in games decided by seven or less points, the Colts were declared the luckiest team in NFL history by statisticians.

Also gone have been future hall of famer Reggie Wayne, second year running back Vick Ballard, backup running back Ahmad Bradshaw, and second year hybrid tight end Dwayne Allen. Cornerback Greg Toler has been out for weeks. And yet the Colts are 10-5.

Yes, the AFC South is brutally bad, and the Colts have taken advantage by posting an unblemished 5-0 divisional record heading into this Sunday’s season finale against Jacksonville at Lucas Oil Stadium. Minus the Colts, the South’s aggregate record is 12-33, but the remaining 10 Colts opponents are 92-57.

Eight of those 10 teams are still in the playoff hunt, and if the Rams win their season ender at Seattle, only Oakland among them will finish below .500. The Colts finished 5-5 outside the division with wins over Denver, Seattle, and Oakland at home, and KC and San Francisco on the road.

And outside of Andrew Luck and Robert Mathis, who the hell are these guys? Donald Brown, Trent Richardson, Griff Whalen, Cassius Vaughn, Jerrell Freeman, and T.Y. Hilton are not exactly the pieces of your typical playoff team puzzle.

The Colts leading rusher is Brown with 506 yards, and the top receiver is Hilton with 928 yards. Even after winning their last two games by a combined score of 48-10, the Colts have only outscored their opponents by 35 points.

The Chiefs were playing at home for a shot at the AFC West Championship coming off two straight wins where they outscored their opponents 101-41. Granted, those wins were against awful Oakland and Washington teams, but averaging 50.5 points in the NFL is an accomplishment regardless of the opponent.

Running back Jamaal Charles was dynamic and explosive, and quarterback Alex Smith was efficient and relentless. Yesterday, Charles was ordinary, and Smith was the flawed field general the 49ers dumped as KC scored an early touchdown and nothing more.

The Colts could wind up earning the second seed in the AFC playoffs for a reason, and the best available answer is Pagano and his staff. Obviously, the Colts need to win in order to move up from the #4 spot they currently occupy, but if the Patriots and Bengals both lose, the Colts earn a first round bye. If the Pats win and Bengals lose, the Colts are the #3 seed. If the Bengals win and the Pats loss, the Colts are the #3 seed. If both lose, the Colts get a week off before hosting a divisional round playoff game. The Pats will be favored at home against the Bills, and Bengals also favored in Cincinnati against the Ravens, but that we are even having this conversation is incredible.

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Pagano doesn’t say outrageous things to the media, rip his players on the sidelines or in post game comments, or draw attention to himself in any way or on any platform. That will make him a less than sexy candidate, but if the voters look at the body of work that Pagano has compiled in 2013, he is impossible to ignore.

With all the chaos on the roster, the drafting of Andrew Luck, and the wheeling and dealing general manager Ryan Grigson has done – the most important move made by the Colts has been the signing of Pagano – a man and leader worthy of respect, and a coach worth of an honor like the NFL Coach of the Year.