Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Rick Venturi Talks Colts vs. Texans, Nick Saban Extension, and Jay Cutler Decision

by Kent Sterling

nfl_g_venturi_200Any day is a good day to talk football to former NFL coach Rick Venturi on 1070 the Fan’s “Ahead of the Curve” with Chris Hagan and me, but today was a great day as he brings great first hand insight into Wade Phillips’ challenge as an interim coach, and knows Nick Saban and Marc Trestman well enough to offer a wonderfully singular perspective on the decisions they have made recently.

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Nick Saban signed yet another extension at Alabama rather than seriously talk to Texas about accepting the rumored $10 million the Longhorns are reportedly ready to offer the right candidate – and that is a good description of Saban.  Venturi has been friends with Saban for 20 years, so what he said about Saban and his agent can be taken to the bank.

Quarterback controversies get coaches fired, and the Chicago Bears have a dandy.  Marc Trestman is committed to using Jay Cutler as his starter despite Cade McNown helping the Bears find a clear path to the posteseason.  Statistically, McNown has been superior in his five starts, and yet Cutler will start tomorrow at Cleveland.  Venturi has seen his share of QB debates, and knows Trestman.  He comes with a great response to a question with no easy answer.

Venturi has also spent the week looking at the Colts vs. Texans, and does a great job talking about the game tomorrow that will likely do nothing to help the AFC South champions improve their seeding in the upcoming playoffs.  That doesn’t make the game unimportant, but it will take some discipline for the Colts to play like they have skin in the game.

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One team that will be watching with interest is the St. Louis Rams.  If the Texans win, the Rams will come closer to earning the #1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft as a result of the 2012 trade that gave the Redskins the pick that sent Robert Griffin III to Washington DC.

Herb Simon, Alison Melangton, and Rick Venturi on 1070 the Fan’s “Ahead of the Curve” Saturday from 11a-1p

by Kent Sterling

UnknownEach week, we try to find a way to top the previous week’s efforts to entertain and inform sports fans, and again this week we have done it.

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“Ahead of the Curve” will air tomorrow morning on 1070 the Fan and 107.5 FM in central Indiana, and on 1070thefan.com everywhere at 11, regardless of the weather.  I make no concessions to the weather.  My life goes on unabated regardless of the conditions.  That’s what happens when you spend time working in news/talk radio.  The product that informs people about the effects of a storm must be manned, so taking time off because of a little snow just isn’t an option.  Plus, I really enjoy doing the show, so if I need to leave home a little early as an accommodation to those incapable of driving in the snow, that’s a small price to pay.

As for co-host and Fox 59 sports director Chris Hagan, he’ll be there too.  No way he can stay away from me for two consecutive weeks.

For sheer firepower, the guest roster for “Ahead of the Curve” is borderline magical.  Indiana Pacers owner Herb Simon will talk about his team’s efforts to serve the community, and the challenge of being patient as team president Larry Bird executed his plan to fill the roster with guys who fit the profile of championship players on and off the court.

Allison Melangton is the president of the Indiana Sports Corporation and she proudly took part in the ceremony to reveal the 2015 NCAA Final Four logo.  Her work to continue the amazing momentum of Indianapolis has built through a Super Bowl, six Final Fours, Big Ten Football Championships, and Big Ten Basketball Tourneys is an embodiment of what makes Indy a destination events fight for.  People love coming to Indianapolis, and we’ll talk to her about the reasons why.

Rick Venturi will educate us as he does throughout the season about life in the NFL.  We’ll get a preview of the Colts. vs. Texans game, talk about the health issues for NFL coaches, and also get his opinion on the quarterback controversy in Chicago.  Venturi has known Bears coach Marc Trestman for a long time, and will have some great insight on the move to bring Cutler back as the starter despite McNown’s superior numbers during his five starts.

This show almost has to be our best ever just by virtue of the guests.  The rest is up to us.

NCAA Unveils 2015 Final Four Logo – and Indy Will Excel (again) as Host

by Kent Sterling

PrintOne of the great things about living in Indianapolis is that beget to enjoy more great sporting events per capita than any city in the world.  Indy is unlikely ever to host an Olympics or World Series, but we are blessed with almost nonstop spectator events.

The NCAA will host its signature Final Four event here in 2015, and today at the Brand Building on the NCAA Headquarters campus the logo was unveiled.  They all look mostly the same, and this one hits my sweet spot for logos.  It’s clean and simple.

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Complicated logos are a lot like complicated show names for radio or TV.  Thank about the great TV sitcoms of the last 30 years – Cheers, Seinfeld, The Office, Friends, and 30 Rock – all very simple names.  How about Ron Howard films? Splash, Gung Ho, Rush, Frost/Nixon, Ransom, Backdraft, The Paper, Apollo 13, and Parenthood.  Simple works.

Simple works for Indianapolis as a host city too.  The hotels are near the bars, and both are within easy walking distance of the venues.  The people are welcoming and pleasant without any pretension.  Downtown is a 12 minute straight shot from the airport, and while it doesn’t make any difference to fans – the way in which the Indiana Sports Corporation, city government, county government, and state get along makes getting things done a breeze for the NCAA, NFL, NBA, and Big Ten.

Why anyone would want to go elsewhere is a mystery.  Indy was built to host major events, and that’s why it over delivers every time.

Simple and fun – that’s how Indy rolls.  Is it any wonder why I call this city home?

Indiana Pacers – Danny Granger Should Sit Until He’s Needed, and That Isn’t Tonight

by Kent Sterling

At some point this season, Danny Granger will play for the Pacers.  No point in hurrying that day along when the Pacers have no need for him.

At some point this season, Danny Granger will play for the Pacers. No point in hurrying that day along when the Pacers have no need for him.

Indiana Pacers forward Danny Granger hasn’t played a minute this season, and only played 74 minutes last year.  Now healthy, or so he says, Granger is saying that he’s not ready to play tonight because he’s out of rhythm.

Sporting the best record in the NBA, the Pacers have shown they don’t need Granger right now to dominate their opposition, so Granger should continue to sit, condition, and do what’s needed to get himself ready for whenever the bell rings for him to report to the scorer’s table.

That time is not tonight against the Charlotte Bobcats, and barring injury it won’t come before the all-star break.

This has nothing to do with the $14,021,788 Granger is scheduled to make this season.  The number of zeroes on his paychecks have nothing to do with the decision coach Frank Vogel must make in deciding when and where to use Granger, nor should they be a consideration of Granger’s in determining his readiness to compete at the highest level.

The Pacers train is rolling.  Why would anyone – Granger included – decide that tinkering with the rotation that resulted in 19-3 is a good strategy?

The goal for the Pacers is to win an NBA Championship, and the roster in its current construct has shown itself plenty capable of beating the two combatants in the 2013 NBA Finals.  The atmosphere in the Eastern Conference Finals and NBA Finals is much different from those that led to two regular season wins – no matter how impressive – and Granger may be a difference maker then.

Because of that, Granger needs to continue to work on making sure he’s ready to play in April, May, and June.  A second unit including C.J. Watson, Danny Granger, Luis Scola, and Ian Mahinmi would be among the best in the NBA.

Just as the Heat are trying to get Greg Oden ready for what appears to be a likely Eastern Conference Finals duel with Rot Hibbert, the Pacers should try to get Granger good to go for that series.

Injuries would change the dynamic, but if all stays static on the Pacers roster, how much better would the Pacers be with Granger playing 18 minutes instead of someone currently getting the job done?

Would the Pacers have beaten the Bulls, Blazers, or Thunder with a healthy Granger?  Certainly not against the Bulls and Thunder, and doubtful against the Blazers.

In baseball, sabremetricians talk about wins over replacement – or WAR.  Right now, a healthy Granger through 22 games would have a WAR of zero.  In baseball, that number is derived through some complex calculations.  With a basketball player who is on the shelf, a tabulation of WAR is easy – at least in this case – the Pacers would have likely won every game they have won with Granger sitting.  They would have lost the other three. Coming up with the zero for Granger’s WAR doesn’t require a degree from MIT or Yale.

The Pacers are likely annoyed by the continued focus on Granger’s knee and calf health, but what the hell are people supposed to talk about?  There was a caller this morning to the Grady and Big Joe Show on 1070 the Fan who asked for the Pacers to win something before they get mouthy.  That call, as Michael Grady suggested at the time, was far more interesting (if confusing) than the call that followed praising Larry Bird as the team’s architect.

Of course, Bird has done a great job.  It can’t be debated.  Paul George has taken another step forward this season.  No debate.  Luis Scola and C.J. Watson were great gets during the offseason.  No debate.  The Pacers get along very well and don’t stub their toes in public.  No debate.  Frank Vogel is the perfect coach for this team, and David West is a gifted leader.  No debate, no debate.

All that is debatable is whether Granger should or shouldn’t play.  I don’t screw with a successful family recipe by adding an ingredient that may spoil the taste.  The money paid for the ingredient is immaterial.

The Pacers will be fine without Granger, so don’t risk losing him for the playoffs by playing him before you know he will help.  That’s debatable.

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RG3’s Benching Makes Perfect Sense, and Not Because of His Health

by Kent Sterling

Mike Shanahan's decision to sit RG3 for the final three games of 2013 might just save the dynamic quarterback's career and the future of the team that will likely fire him in three weeks.

Mike Shanahan’s decision to sit RG3 for the final three games of 2013 might just save the dynamic quarterback’s career and the future of the team that will likely fire him in three weeks.

Robert Griffin III would have you believe that he’s the next big thing.  His marketing shows him to be a singularly special athlete whose agility is only outpaced by his charisma.  Well, charisma doesn’t complete passes, and sponsorship deals don’t win games.

When Redskins coach Mike Shanahan announced that RG3 would be benched for the rest of the season, people wanted to know why.  Shanahan spoke of saving his health so he could have a full offseason to prepare for his third year in the NFL.  People took that to mean that Shanahan is performing a mercy killing of RG3’s soph season.

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What he was actually saying is that without a full offseason of work, RG3 is not worthy of the starting job with the Redskins.  The regression of RG3’s production can be easily seen in his stat line and in the Redskins 3-10 record, and another offseason spent rehabbing instead of learning, building, and processing would be a disaster both for the Redskins and this media darling.

Griffin has seen his quarterback rating drop more than 20 points, from an excellent 102.4 as a rookie to a very pedestrian 82.2.  His QBR (the metric that uses a wider variety of stats to measure total contribution to his team) has tumbled from 71.41 to 40.12.  He’s been sacked 38 times and thrown 12 picks in 13 starts this season as opposed to 30 sacks and 5 INTs in 15 starts as a rookie.

With Griffin playing at or beyond the level he enjoyed as a rookie, the Redskins can win.  If Griffin is the ill-prepared and structurally unsound quarterback he has become, the Redskins have no chance to compete in a mediocre NFC East.  He has gone from the most dynamic quarterback in the division to a virtual tie with Eli Manning as the worst in the division, and Manning has been brutal this season.

People speculate that Shanahan benched RG3 as the result of a power play with owner Dan Snyder, but the truth is on the game film.  The Redskins have a better chance of winning with the unknown production from backup quarterback Kirk Cousins than with the consistently poor Griffin.

Shanahan will likely be fired at the end of the season by Snyder, an activist owner whose patience and understanding of football are outpaced by the size of his wallet.  “Wealth doesn’t always equal smarts” should be the Redskins motto.  Snyder should sign Shanahan to an extension for putting the franchise and its star quarterback ahead of his own popularity.

RG3 isn’t happy with the temporary demotion, but there will come a time when he will look at Shanahan’s actions and be thankful.  A record of 3-10 has consequences, and so does an offseason spent dedicated to hurriedly rehabbing a surgically repaired knee.

The truth is that RG3 has only played well enough to win three of 13 games, and that’s not good enough for Mike Shanahan or any NFL team.  One more year of this stupefying mediocrity, and it might not be good enough for Gatorade, Nissan, Subway, EA Sports, Castrol, Adidas, and Evo-Shield.

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This season is lost – for RG3, Shanahan, and the Redskins.  What’s left is to get a talented quarterback and team ready for 2014 and beyond.  Sitting RG3 isn’t just a good decision; it’s the only decision, and Shanahan deserves a reward instead of a pink slip for making it.

The only winner during this tough season for the Redskins are the St. Louis Rams, who might wind up with the #1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft because of the trade that brought RG3 to Washington in the first place.

Indiana Basketball – Collin Hartman on the Indiana Culture and the Difference Between Cathedral HS and IU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1dLAFNa-Qg

by Kent Sterling

Collin Hartman is a very thoughtful and honest young man, and that makes him a great interview.  That he’s a freshman for the Indiana Hoosiers makes him someone that people want to hear from.

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There is no question that college basketball requires a different level of effort and commitment.  Working at your game 40-50 hours per week just isn’t possible in high school, and in college it’s mandatory.

Yes, there is a 20 hour limit on organized work that is mandated by the NCAA, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the amount of time student-athletes are willing to work on their own.

Hartman is learning to play among those who are just as gifted as he is – and in some cases more gifted.  That’s a tough transition for kids who have always been the best player on his team.  It requires maturity and faith, and Hartman seems to be handling that just fine.

Chicago Cubs – Tom Ricketts Comments at Winter Meetings – Vague, Not Dishonest Is a Step in Right Direction

by Kent Sterling

In black and white, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts looks like a tax collector ready to throw Ward, June, Wally and the Beaver into the street as he forecloses on the Cleaver household.

In black and white, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts looks like a tax collector ready to throw Ward, June, Wally and the Beaver into the street as he forecloses on the Cleaver household.

Gordon Wittemyer does great work covering the Cubs for the Chicago Sun-Times.  He’s about as down the middle as it comes for honest coverage of a team that appears more and more to be lacking leadership at the top.

There was good news and bad news from the top of the Cubs corporate food chain as owner Tom Ricketts addressed Wittenmyer and the rest of the media at Baseball’s winter meetings being held at the Dove and Swan Resort near Walt Disney World.

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The bad news was he shared nothing about future plans for renovations to Wrigley Field, the TV deal that should provide an influx of additional cash, or when the Cubs might start spending money to acquire players that can help the team justify the out of whack ticket prices (third most expensive in baseball in 2013).  The good news was that he didn’t lie or threaten to leave Wrigley Field for Schaumberg, DeKalb, Itasca, or Bannockburn.

Wittenmyer quotes Ricketts responses to various issues – it makes no difference to what he was referring.  No context is necessary to understand his thoughts:

  • “It depends. There’s a lot of conversations, but nothing definitive.”
  • “I have nothing to report on that.”
  • “I’m not sure. I don’t think it’s about [that]. It’s about just making the team better. We’ll have to decide where and when he wants to do that.”
  • “I think we’re looking at everything as a package.”
  • “I’m not certain what all the staging is at this point.”
  • “There’s been a lot of different ideas thrown out. I’m not sure where we’re at in terms of closer or farther.”
  • “We’re doing the right stuff. Absolutely.”
  • “That’s an important part of our future. But it’s a long process and we’re just going to play through and do what we have to do.”

Well, there you are.  Fire up, Chicago!  Buy those season tickets now.  Get on board.

As I’m writing this, the excellent coverage of the winter meetings continues on MLB Network with an announcement the Cubs have traded Brian Bogusevic for Justin Ruggiano.  Hot damn, the missing piece of the puzzle is coming!  Ruggiano hit .222 for the Marlins in 2013, and if that doesn’t excite you, he’ll be 32 a week after opening day.  His 114 strikeouts, .298 OBP, and under .700 OPS make him a perfect fit for the Cubs.

This trade reeks of a team that needed to show movement somehow, someway.  Expense reports without activity are frowned upon.  Even a meaningless trade that swaps a middling left-handed handed bat for a middling left-handed bat shows that team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer are aware that the Cubs have just completed the worst three-year run in the history of the franchise.

Ricketts non-comments show the stress of owning a franchise going nowhere.  He used to enjoy telling people how the sausage was made as he indulged his dream of owning the Cubs.  Not so much fun anymore.

Without the money to compete for the occasional free agent for fill holes, the Cubs will never be able to compete in the NL Central Division.  Even if they could magically throw the calendar forward two years so the much ballyhooed Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, and Albert Almora became ready to contribute, there is nothing to suggest they are ready to win more games than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals drafted Michael Wacha in 2012, and he led them into the 2013 World Series.  The Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to an absurd four-year deal, and he led the Major Leagues in losses with 18.  That’s called backpedaling while already in a position of weakness.

Epstein mentioned that the business and baseball sides of the Cubs operation were coming into sync, and Ricketts spoke like he had no idea what he was talking about.  Epstein said that the Cubs are coming to the point where they will be major players in free agency and will help drive the market.  Ricketts, according to Wittenmyer, appeared baffled by the comment.

Cubs fans and Chicago media need to see the Cubs under Ricketts for what they are – nickel and dimers trying to sell hope where none exists.

Ricketts, Epstein, and Hoyer are building for an uncertain 2016 by gouging fans forced to watch bad baseball from 2012-2015.  If they want to sell the future to fans, the fans should wait to invest hard-earned cash until the future is now.

If you want to go retail deep into your pocket to watch an outfield of Sweeney, Schierholtz, Ruggiano, and/or Lake play behind Edwin Jackson or Carlos Villanueva as shortstop Starlin Castro watches the Red Line trains speed past – you go right ahead.

Despite NCAA President Mark Emmert’s Comments, Pay-for-Play Is Coming to College Sports

by Kent Sterling

Mark Emmert knows the right path, but college presidents won't let him walk  it.

Mark Emmert knows the right path, but college presidents won’t let him walk it.

When? I don’t know, but college athletes who demonstrate value related to revenue generation for their schools will be paid for their services beyond the cost of a college education.

It might be in two years, five years, or 20 years, but student-athletes who are forced to utilize college athletics as a de facto minor league will be paid proportionate to their worth.  Why?  Because it’s the right and logical.

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Before we weigh into the portions of Emmert’s presentation at the IMG Intercollegiate Athletics Forum in New York City that deal directly with pay-for-play, one area with which I agree completely is in his assessment of the morality of the one-and-done rule in college basketball, “It’s illogical to force someone to go to college when they want to do something else,” Emmert said.

I would go further, but if Emmert wants to use illogical rather than immoral, that’s fine.  Those who worry about the diminution of talent in college basketball that would occur if players were allowed against to jump directly from high school to the NBA waste their time.  That’s not what happened before, and it wouldn’t happen in the future.

Emmert went on, “When LeBron went (straight from HS to the NBA), we still had a Final Four and it was pretty good and people showed up and we had good numbers, and nobody said college basketball sucked because Kobe went.”

Whether Andrew Wiggins played a single second at Kansas or became a member of the Charlotte Bobcats, people would watch the Jawhawks.  College basketball is about tradition, heritage, and competition.  The ability to succeed is relative to the talent of those on other rosters.

Bonafide college students participating in big time college athletics seems a quaint notion these days.  Football games draw more than any NFL stadium can hold, and basketball games at Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, Louisville, Syracuse, and many other programs out draw NBA games.  Obviously big money winds up somewhere, but students should without question remain students.

But where is it written that college students who generate big money can’t earn a commensurate share of that money.  When a coach like Nick Saban is likely to sign either an extension to stay at Alabama or a new deal to go to the University of Texas for $10 million per year, does it make any sense for a student athlete awaiting the moment at which he is eligible for the draft to live like a pauper?

They lose eligibility for profiting from their image, while the schools are able to raise money for by auctioning swag featuring the signature of those same student-athletes.

Contrarians point to the value of a scholarships as evidence of compensation that must be judged as part of the equation.  No question that the student-athletes for all sports are treated well at most schools.  Universities who see their roles in the development of minds and bodies do wonderful work making their educational efforts worthwhile.  Some aren’t so generous, but even at the schools who do it right, the money generated through the work of the players dwarfs that which is provided to them through goods an services related to their scholarships.

Big Ten President Jim Delany is a really smart guy, but at the same conference where Emmert made his comments, he said that “asking to pay student-athletes is the same as mandating that a pro athlete go to school.”  No, it isn’t.  It’s nothing like that.  What it’s like is asking a coach to accept only a professors’ salary plus tenure as his or her compensation for coaching.

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Emmert addressed the licensing issue which brings an obvious dilemma with the potential for boosters to buy autographed items at outrageous prices as a legal workaround for the $500 handshakes that are blatantly against the rules, and also spoke about the discrepancy in value from one school to another, “I think the key issue for the members is, how would you have such a model that doesn’t become a recruiting debate?”

He’s right to see the limitations and potholes inherent in any system with a fluid valuation of human assets, but it’s no excuse for using the services of student-athletes to make members of a third party very wealthy while forbidding efforts for human beings to capitalize on their own image during the limited period during which it has value.

The right thing will eventually be done because the promise of the right thing being done eventually is what makes waking up in the morning worthwhile.  Whether it’s through a radical adjustment in the thinking of the current administrators or the launching of a rival college oversight group, logic will win.

Indiana Basketball – Fans Need to Calm Themselves About Evan Gordon and Get Excited About Assembly Hall Facelift

by Kent Sterling

Evan Gordon was lights out good against North Florida and Oakland.  Wait until he plays great basketball against a Big Ten team before coronating him the savior of a mediocre season.

Evan Gordon was lights out good against North Florida and Oakland. Wait until he plays great basketball against a Big Ten team before coronating him the savior of a mediocre season.

Indiana has had a tough time getting scoring from the wings this season, and when senior Evan Gordon dropped 26 points on 10-12 shooting, fans and media began to wonder very loudly about the possibility of the fifth year player emerging as an answer to a wide variety of questions.

Gordon’s bounty last night came on the heels of another very efficient 15-point effort against North Florida where he hit 7-9 shots in 19 minutes.

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Forgotten were the 45 total points in the previous eight games on 12-30 shooting.

There is every chance that Gordon can continue to drop bombs throughout the rest of the season.  Gordon has always been an adept scorer, but to assume that Tom Crean should be insert Gordon into the starting lineup, and relegate Will Sheehey to the bench role he endured during his first three years is beyond premature.

Last season, Remy Abell appeared to be quite adept at knocking down three-pointers in bunches as he hit 11-19 prior to the beginning of Big Ten play.  From that point forward, Abell hit 5-14, and then left the program.

The moral of the Abell Fable is that unless you know what you’re watching, it’s very easy to get excited about a performance that comes against an opponent that is inferior to those the Hoosiers will face in the Big Ten.

To believe that suddenly Sheehey has regressed to the point where he is not one of the best five players on IU’s roster is madness.  He is never going to be a dominant scorer – that’s not who he is – but he can defend well at several positions.  Without good defense, the guys knocking down threes on your end are the same guys who allow threes on the other.

While fans are thrilled when poorly defended 25-footers slice through the net, there are considerations that require the attention of coaches that are more important than shots falling.

It’s true that if you can’t shoot, you can’t play, but being only a shooter does not punch your ticket to productive minutes against Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.

Again, none of this is to say that Gordon can’t defend at the wing, or function as an outstanding all-around player.  Tom Crean just needs to evaluate the way these players fit in a way that most can’t understand.  So relax.

**************

The Assembly Hall expansion discussed on kentsterling.com in April is being rolled out to the public.  The cost will come in just under $40 million, and will provide many improvements, including a grand entrance on the south end of the building, improved bathrooms, and a change to the seating bowl at the south end that will work in concert with the grand entrance.

There is very little other than the removal of the “Dan Parisi for IU student body president” bumper sticker that seemed to be forever adhered to one of the court level signs that has changed about Assembly Hall since its construction, and the time for a facelift is long past.

For decades, fans have clamored for a new arena, but the decision was made not to drop $300+M on a new facility.  For all its warts and quirks, Assembly Hall is a very unique venue, and somehow for better or worse (mostly better) has become intrinsically linked to the brand of Indiana Basketball.

It’s not just smart business to renovate rather than replace Assembly Hall – it’s good for the program too.  Cook Hall is an outstanding practice facility, and the showplace that attracts recruits looking to improve to the extent facilities will allow.  Assembly Hall has become iconic as a historical touchstone of Indiana Basketball, and destroying it to make room for a suite-filled cookie cutter dump would be an act of idiocy the likes of which we might have expected from Rick Greenspan or one of the other dullards who ran IU’s athletic department.

Fred Glass knows what he’s doing, and the ongoing multiple construction plans that continue to put IU student athletes in a position to succeed shouldn’t be put on hold to accommodate the replacement of an imperfectly perfect arena that only requires a face lift.

Nick Saban – Texas or Alabama, and Why He’ll Wait to Decide

by Kent Sterling

Mack Brown and Nick Saban - who thought it would come to this?

Mack Brown and Nick Saban – who thought it would come to this?

There is one player at the table with a very tall stack of chips in front of him in the Nick Saban sweepstakes, and that is Nick Saban.

There is nothing Alabama officials and fans would like more than for Saban to sign the extension to his current deal, but Saban has balked, and the reason is pretty simple to understand.  He waits because he can.

Alabama is in no position to strong-arm Saban into signing, so the coach most coveted by Texas as a potential replacement for Mack Brown waits.

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If Brown steps down by the end of the week, as is anticipated, Saban will doubtless receive an exceptional offer by the best funded athletic department in collegiate athletics.  That offer will determine Saban’s value, and then Saban will be able to evaluate the respective tenders outside of the vacuum that currently exists.

Texas has exceptionally deep pockets, and a network of its own to fill with compelling programming, and that means football.  Without competing for a spot in the national championship playoff that will begin next season, the Longhorns leave millions on the table.

A Saban decision to move to Texas would be a huge boon to the school’s ability to monetize the Longhorn Network, and that is the name of the game.

Saban is a businessman at the same level he is a football coach.  Knowing that loyalty is a weakness in negotiation has helped Saban take the necessary leaps to be branded the best college coach in America, and if Alabama is naive enough to believe that Saban will evaluate his options through a prism other than the cold calculation of potential dollars, cents, and esteem they don’t understand how a great strategic mind works.

The people in Alabama athletics are no dummies themselves, and they know exactly who Saban is.  The preemptive offer of an extension is nothing more than an effort to keep fans from rioting should the Crimson Tide not be able to match the offer from Austin.

At auction, the bidder with the deepest pockets wins, and with total revenue of $163,295,115, Texas athletics makes more than anyone else.  Alabama is no slouch with the fourth ranked total revenue – $124,899,945.  But no slouch doesn’t necessarily buy a seat at the big boy table.

One thing to remember is that athletic directors like to keep their jobs as much as anyone else, and Bill Battle has been on the job at Alabama for less one year, and if he loses Saban, he is going to pay.  Battle is an Alabaman who played for Bear Bryant, but losing the best coach since the Bear to a rival school over a few dollars is the kind of decision that ends careers.  That’s called motivation.

Steve Patterson was hired to be the AD at Texas less than a month ago, and making a big splash as he replaces Brown would be a great first step toward building equity with a fan base that has grown tired of not being in the National Championship conversation.

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A record of 30-20 over the last four years and back-to-back trips to the Alamo Bowl has resulted in a burnt orange dyspeptic ulcer in the collective stomach of Longhorn fans, and hiring the man regarded as America’s best college football coach would serve as a regular dose of Prevacid.

Whatever happens, expect it to be coldly evaluated and patiently executed on Saban’s timetable.  That’s how he rolls, who he is, and the kind of diligence for which the winner will pay an unprecedented price.

The next month will be fascinating in Tuscaloosa and Austin, and will be very, very profitable in the Saban household.  That’s the reward for being branded as the very best at what you do.

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