Author Archives: Kent Sterling

NCAA Rules for Student-Athletes Are Swinging Toward Those for Whom They Should Be Written

by Kent Sterling

Time magazine’s cover piece this week champions the righteousness of paying student athletes for the value they create for universities. I’ve long thought that to exclude athletes who fill stadia and arenas from the market economy that benefits virtually every other human being in America, but that Time called for it caused me to re-evaluate.

Nope, it’s still right to pay the kids.

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Now, ESPN’s Dana O’Neil is reporting that the NCAA is going to change transfer rules so that student-athletes can go where they please without coaches blocking their entry to a specific school.

That the NCAA is seriously considering treating the kids like something other than indentured servants while all those around them can profit and travel without restriction provides hope that logic might yet prevail.

The change agents are many. The most important is a man named Ed O’Bannon. He played basketball at UCLA 20 years ago, and was pretty damn good, but his lasting legacy will be the lawsuit he filed to challenge the rights of schools to claim licensing rights across the universe in perpetuity.

Even the abrasive adolescent down in College Station, Texas, has unwittingly brought the debate over licensing to the dinner tables and sportstalk radio shows by being accused of accepting a sweaty wad of cash for signing his name 4,400 times. If anyone believes he signed and signed and signed for free, they are delusional.

What Johnny Manziel did was make lying about a bad rule okay – just as it should be. The school backed his play for the most part, and the NCAA suspended him for a single half of football game against Rice. With their complicity, the wrongheaded rule banning athletes from autographing memorabilia for cash died a quiet death.

The rule is still on the books, but after the African American athletes at Ohio State were more severely dealt with, can you imagine the NCAA coming down any harder than they did with Manziel? No chance. The only way that rule is ever used to punish another athlete is if the kid rats on himself.

The shift in college athletics has a long way to go before the business model begins to make some sense. It took baseball almost 100 years to finally eliminate the reserve clause, and the rules that schools use to keep athletes from being the only people involved in major conference college football and men’s basketball not making money hand over fist will wither and die as do all unjust laws.

Unfortunately and ultimately, it will likely be the courts who move schools toward doing the right thing. After all, the pain of change must be outweighed by the pain of staying the same for change to occur, and only the courts can bring the kind of pain that will cause the NCAA members to allow for the possibility that paying players is the right thing.

The world would be a better place if smart men and women could sit around a conference table and propose doing the right thing only because doing right is the most important thing people can accomplish, but anyone who has ever had a seat at a conference table knows that the people sitting around it are usually not very smart, and that doing the right thing is the last of their priorities.

In the end, the powerful protect their power, and the college administrators will continue to try to hoard theirs, but the evolution toward a fair level of market driven compensation will continue until the waters level.

Moving toward right can be nauseatingly slow and torturous for those whose will is being denied, but as surely as it’s wrong to force 18 year-olds to sign away their rights to compensation for the use of their image, right eventually wins.

Peyton Manning Top Ten All-Time Performances Show His Peerless Greatness

by Kent Sterling

I can’t bring myself to use a photo of Manning in a Broncos jersey.

Last night’s opening night performance by Peyton Manning might have been the best of his career because the previous game featured one of the worst, and Manning knew that better than anyone.

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Ironically, the only two postseason games on this list were against the Denver Broncos. These are in a more or less random order as I enjoyed watching all of these games with relative equanimity.

The entire 2004 season

Choose your poison in 2004, which was the year that Manning served notice that he was becoming one of the all-time greats at quarterback. At a time when it was rare for a quarterback to achieve a single season QBR of better than 100, Manning shattered the record with an average of 121.1. If I had to pick a favorite game among the 15 in which Manning played a substantial role, I would circle the game against the Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre at the RCA Dome. The first half of that game was an incredible shootout between the games two best when both were at the peak of their talents. Manning was 28-40 for 393 yards and five TDs. His rating was a pedestrian 140.9. Favre was 30-44 for 360 yards and four TDs. Neither through an interception in an offensive explosion that those who watched will never forget. In the first 10:44 of the game, thirty-five points were scored by the two offenses as the Colts took a 21-14 lead. All five scores came on long balls of 36, 36, 28, 79, and 34 yards. There has never been a more exciting start to an NFL game. It was like watching for very best parts of Arturo Gatti and Mickey Ward’s trifecta of great fights.

January 4, 2004 vs. Denver Broncos

Manning was 0-3 in the postseason until he went off in the opening round of the playoffs against Mike Shanahan and the Denver Broncos. Not only was this one of Manning’s ten best, it’s one of the best shows authored by a quarterback in NFL postseason history. Manning finished 22 for 26 for 377 yards and five TDs in the 41-10 win. His passing rating – 158.3, which is perfect.

October 22, 2000 vs. New England Patriots

The first of his great performances came against the team that would become his greatest rival. Manning only threw the ball 20 times, but he averaged an amazing 13.4 yards per attempt. He was 16-20 from 268 and 3 TDs. His passer rating – a perfect 158.3. The Colts beat the Patriots 30-23.

October 6, 2003 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The stats aren’t that gaudy, but the result was beyond amazing. With just over five minutes left in this Monday Night Football Classic, the Colts trailed by 21 points. Many in Indianapolis decided to turn off the TV and get some sleep. They missed the greatest comeback in Manning’s career. Down 35-14 after an interception returned for a touchdown, the Colts Brad Pyatt returned the kickoff 90 yards, and the Colts punched it in shortly thereafter. After recovering an onside kick, Manning went 5-6 for 63 yards during the touchdown drive capped by a 28-yarder to Marvin Harrison. After forcing a Tampa punt with 1:48 left, Manning went to work on his own 15. He hit Troy Walters for 12 yards, and Warren Sapp was flagged for roughing the passer. With 1:28 left, Manning hit Harrison for 52 yards. In :44, the Colts moved the ball inside the Tampa 10. Two runs later, the game was tied, and an overtime field goal later, the Colts were boarding a plane back to Indy with a most improbably win in their pocket.

November 11, 2002 @ Philadelphia Eagles

To disprove those who believe that Manning can’t succeed outdoors, Manning completed 18 of his 23 passes for 319 yards and three TDs in the 35-13 win over the Eagles. His passing rating is a not surprising perfect 158.3.

September 5, 2013 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Last night was outrageous. Manning may not be flinging the ball with the same velocity, but his reads and precision have allowed him to remain incredible productive in his 15th season. Manning was 27-42 for for 462 yards and a career best seven TDs and no picks. The quarterback rating of 141.1 shows a flaw in the rating system. The guy on the other side of the field being paid like a Manning wasn’t nearly as sharp. Joe Flacco was 34-62 for 362 with two TDs and two picks. Manning has never thrown that many passes in a game.

September 28, 2003 @ New Orleans Saints

In 2001, Manning went home for the first time to play against the Saints, and maybe he was a little too jacked up because he was very ordinary in a 28-18 loss. Whatever kept him from thriving that afternoon in the Superdome was addressed before he returned in 2003 as Manning went completely off against the Saints. He completed 20-25 passes for 314 yards and six touchdowns.

January 9, 2005 vs. Denver Broncos

One year after getting off the postseason schneid against the Broncos in a game that featured Manning at his absolute best, Manning reminded Denver coach Mike Shanahan how unpleasant playing against him can be as he went 27-33 for 458 yards and four TDs. His rating of 145.7 reflected a lone interception. The 2004 season from Manning was one of the finest in the history of the game.

Tie – December 9, 2007 @ Baltimore Ravens; December 4, 2005 vs. Tennessee Titans

These performances marked the fewest attempts in a game during which Manning played the entire game, and the results were virtually identical. Manning completed 13-17 in each. Against the Ravens, he threw for 24p yards and four TDs without a pick, and against the Titans he totaled 187 and 3 TDs without a pick. Manning’s respective QBRs were 157.5 and 151.2. The Colts beat the Ravens 44-20 and hammered the Titans 35-3.

If want want to get a bet down early on the next game that might bump one of these out of the top ten, circle the October 20 game in Indianapolis in the building that Manning’s catalogue of work built. I guarantee you that Manning has it circled.

Indianapolis Colts – National Media’s Tales of the Horseshoe’s Regression Greatly Exaggerated

by Kent Sterling

Andrew Luck is a variable so profound, he invalidates math.

There are times when distance provides perspective. You know the old saying, “You can’t see the forest for the trees.” In the case of the Indianapolis Colts that means that if you are staring at Andrew Luck, you can’t see Cassius Vaughn.

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In Indianapolis, people pay close enough attention to the actions, attitude, and work product of Luck to know what he means to the Colts. People in Indy know significantly more about the DNA of great quarterbacks than Chicagoans ever will, and as a result people nationally are blathering en masse about how the 11-5 record in 2012 was a fluke.

Why the shot at Bears fans? The Bears have used 20 starting quarterbacks since 1998, which ranks last in the NFL, while the Colts have started five. Starting 20 quarterbacks in 15 seasons means the Bears have actually had 0 starting QBs. In fact, no franchise has gone longer without a franchise QB. While Manning started every game in 13 straight seasons, the Bears have not had the same man start the majority of its games under center for five consecutive seasons since Ed Brown (1955-1960).

Even worse, since 1978, Bears fans have suffered through watching 38 different starting quarterbacks.

Watching Manning develop as one of the best five QBs ever has given Colts fans a unique insight as to what a winner looks like, and Luck is a winner.

Those who see the Colts and Luck, and speak of sophomore jinxes, are judging Luck through metrics that simply aren’t relevant. We’ve heard it a million times – Luck led seven successful fourth quarter comebacks, the Colts went 9-1 in games decided by seven or fewer points, the Colts were outscored by 30 points but won 11 games – an accomplishment no team in NFL history can claim, and finally that Chuck Pagano’s leukemia inspired divine intervention for the Colts fortunes.

Somehow, the experts have ordained that the confluence of those four sets of facts must result in the Colts backpeddling to irrelevance in year two of the Luck Era in Indianapolis. Using a Venn Diagram to predict the events of sporting events turns the games into nothing more than a series of probabilities, and with football that does not work.

Baseball allows for a statistical breakdown that is far more accurate than football because baseball involves a series of one-on-one interactions. The outcome of each play during a football game is determined by a very complex interaction among 11 men attacking a second set of 11 men, and because of that discounting the 11 wins of 2012 because of a -30 point differential is bananas.

Luck is a competitor who was able through his excellence to bring the Colts wins that they otherwise should not have earned, and to argue that is an admission that games in the NFL are best explained through box scores.

The Colts will only regress if Luck does not survive the season intact. He is a special player in much the same way Manning is. The rules of math do not apply for the Colts because Luck’s presence warps them.

So Bill Simmons and those like him view the entirety of the Colts franchise and declare it prime for backslide. Bill Barnwell uses his slide rule and moans that the Colts can’t defy probability over the course of a 32-game sample like they did for 16 (in fairness, Barnwell does acknowledge that Luck is a freak for whom math offers a lacking explanation). Those in Chicago who know a great linebacker when they see one, look at the Colts without understanding that wins and losses are earned by quarterbacks and not men like George, Butkus, Singletary, and Urlacher.

Bringing a team back from the brink of defeat is not a random event like the spin of a roulette wheel; it is a skill, and rather than discussing the illogic of Luck continuing his hot streak, the pundits should spend more time examining the quality of his play.

People who watched the Colts play twice when it was convenient last season are predicting an 8-8 season. Those who took the time to watch all 16 saw Luck conjure ways to win when losses were more likely. They know that Luck’s rookie year wasn’t a creation of a lucky roll. It was about Luck’s ability to compete successfully.

2013 NFL Preview – AFC West – Denver Broncos Will Win It in a Walk

by Kent Sterling

Most divisions in the NFL will provide at least a little intrigue, but the AFC West is nothing but a coronation for the Denver Broncos as long as Peyton Manning remains upright. Kansas City is the media darling pick to be the most improved team in the league, but isn’t going to be as good as advertised. San Diego is embarking down a new road after being perfectly average last season, and Oakland will battle for the first overall pick in the draft with Jacksonville.

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Denver Broncos 14-2

The Broncos will go as far as Peyton Manning can take them. He appears to be throwing the ball with more zip and precision after a 2012 where he relied upon guile to recapture his place in the NFL hierarchy of stars.

Schedule – Bad breaks in that two of the three toughest games on the Broncos schedule are on the road – @ NY Giants (9/15) and @ New England (11/24). The Broncos also travel to Indianapolis in a highly anticipated of Manning to the building his excellence produced. They also head to Houston and Dallas. While the schedule has its share of cupcakes, the Broncos will need to succeed in hostile environments to match its 13-3 record from 2012.

Offense – As he has been throughout his career, Manning is the key to the success or failure of the team for whom he plays, and despite not having his fastball in 2012, he put up statistics that looked a whole lot like those he enjoyed in Indianapolis for the 13 years he made every start as a Colt. Manning completed an NFL best 68.6% (14th best of all time) in 2012. He also led the NFL in adjusted net yards per attempt (7.89). I could go on, but you get the picture – Manning is a stud with every bit the productivity as he has always had, and now he’s throwing it better. He’s going to pass Dan Marino for second place in passing yards roughly halfway through this season, and will need three healthy years to catch Brett Favre for the all-time lead. The best reason for optimism that Manning will break Favre’s records is that Manning’s athleticism really can’t erode much further. Becoming slow can’t happen to Manning because he was born there.

Montee Ball is going to give the Broncos a different dimension to their running game, so when Manning decides to put the game in the hands of his running back, like he has done quite a bit during some unsuccessful postseasons, maybe they can succeed. As is always the case with the offensive lines on Manning teams, they are paid to protect the passer, so running the ball will be a challenge on occasion.

Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Demaryius Thomas will be exceptionally productive. All might catch 100+ passes.

Defense – Losing Elvis Dumervil to free agency as the result of a clerical error and Von Miller for the first six games of the season due to suspension is going to make it difficult for the Broncos generate the same level of heat on opposing quarterbacks. The job of the defense is to get one more stop than their counterparts are able to attain against the Manning led offense. That was always the Colts plan with Manning, and it worked well for a decade.

Kansas City – 7-8-1

The Chiefs are the beloved moppets of the NFL this year. Everyone loves the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid, but let’s remember that the Chiefs were 2-14 in 2012, and the road from terrible to to the playoffs is likely to take more than one year. The Rams made a similar coaching move after 2011, and that brought them a 5 1/2 game bump, so I’m predicting the same. Who has two thumbs and the stones to predict a tie? This guy!

Schedule – Whether the Chiefs are pretenders or contenders will be revealed during the first six weeks of the 2013 season. They travel to Jacksonville for the opener. A loss there, and the Chiefs are in big trouble. The second tilt is a home game vs. the Cowboys. As long as the Chiefs are 1-1 after that game, they are in good shape. Reid’s homecoming to play the Eagles on Thursday, September 19, will be a big game for both teams. The next three are vs. Giants, at Tennessee, and vs. Raiders. If the Chiefs are 3-3, life is good; 2-4 or worse is uh-oh. The Chiefs will get better, but it’s likely to take time.

Offense – Acquiring Alex Smith to lead the Chiefs offense is a big deal. His combination of sort ball accuracy and mobility makes him a great fit for Andy Reid’s west coast offense. Jamaal Charles is currently healthy, and if he stays that way, Kansas City will have a chance to score some points. The problem is that beyond Dwayne Bowe, I’m not sure who is going to catch the Ball. Colts and Rams fans will share tales of Donnie Avery dropping balls all over the yard. He’s a legit deep threat with pads instead of hands, but Smith doesn’t have a deep ball arm, so signing Avery was a head scratcher on a lot of levels.

Defense – The Chiefs generated an NFL low 13 takeaways, and only sacked opposing quarterbacks 27 times (roughly half the number that led the NFL). The linebackers are solid, but the secondary beyond Brandon Flowers is suspect. No pass rush and no turnovers make winning tough without a dynamic offense, and while the Chiefs offense will be improved, it is not dynamic.

San Diego – 5-11

The Chargers blew everything up after last season – in which they were perfectly mediocre scoring and allowing 350 points. This is year one of the new regime, and while the Indianapolis Colts made that work last season, it’s not likely to be repeated in San Diego for 2013. The biggest difference between the two teams is a quarterback as Philip Rivers’ skills are in recession while Andrew Luck walked into Colts camp secure that his physical and emotional skill set was elite. On his best day, that wasn’t true for Rivers.

Schedule – The biggest question about the Chargers schedule is why they rated three national TV games – the first of which is next Monday night against the Houston Texans. The Chargers are looking straight down the barrel of an 0-3 beginning to the Mike McCoy era. Hosting Houston followed by trips to Philadelphia and Tennessee isn’t a murderer’s row of opponents, but it will be tough for the Chargers to win any of the three.

Offense – Danario Alexander is predictably injured. A marvelously talented wide receiver, a healthy Alexander is a potential All-Pro target, but he is almost never healthy. The Rams cut him last August because of the injuries, and the Chargers took a chance that paid off. In just seven starts, Alexander caught 37 balls for 658 yards and seven TDs.

Rivers was bludgeoned in the pocket last year. He’s never been mobile, but the 49 sacks he suffered were a career high, and the 311 yards lost as a result led the NFL. When he got rid of the ball quickly, the Chargers moved the ball, and when he didn’t he felt pain. The offensive line has been rebuilt, so who knows whether it can protect him better, The only holdover is center Nick Hardwick.

McCoy put together a solid offense with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at QB, so we can assume a step in the right direction, but to whom will Rivers throw? Alexander is out. Eddie Royal (bruised lung) and Malcom Floyd (sprained knee) are recovering from injuries and should play in week one. Tight end Antonio Gates is still above average, but caught less than 50 balls for the first time since his rookie season in 2003. Keenan Allen was projected to be taken earlier than #76 in the 2013 NFL Draft, so maybe he’ll be able to contribute.

Ryan Mathews has never played a full season, but even when he played last lear, he averaged a full yard under his per carry norm from 2011. The Chargers ranked 31st in rushing offense in 2012, scored only four rushing TDs (for the entire season!), and there is no reason for optimism that they will be more productive in 2013.

Defense – The Chargers added the no longer functional Dwight Freeney and linebacker Manti Te’o to replace aging veterans whose skills had receded. Not sure what the Chargers believe can still be plumbed from Freeney, but different provides hope. Eric Weddle is a solid safety and CB Derek Cox came over from Jacksonville, but that’s the end of the good news.

Oakland Raiders – 1-15

This is a team is total disarray. When the most dangerous offensive player on your roster is the kicker, the team is in big trouble. Injuries and some roster adjustments to clear cap space for 2014 have robbed the Raiders of any chance to compete.

Schedule – When you are one of the worst three teams in the NFL, who you play doesn’t matter so much. Fortunately, they play one of the other worst teams at home in week two. Beating the Jaguars would help keep false hope alive for another week.

Offense – Yikes. Terrelle Pryor or Matt Flynn was the decision for new coach Dennis Allen. He chose Pryor, and why not. Pryor can run, and that presents a chance to move the chains when the offensive line breaks down – and the offensive line is going to break down. As if the problems on the line weren’t already profound, LT Jared Veldheer tore his triceps muscle. Darren McFadden’s per carry average plummeted from 5.4 in 2011 to 3.3 in 2012. With Veldheer out, Alex Barron could be the starting left tackle. He was a first rounder for the Rams in 2005, and was not good enough to remain on the roster of a team in the midst of a five year record of 15-65 (the worst in NFL history). Stefan Wisniewski is an okay center, but the rest of the line is a train wreck.

Fullback Marcel Reece is a weapon out of the backfield as a receiver. Rod Streater and Denarius Moore are less than special, and it will test the feet of Pryor to stay upright long enough to allow them to break open.

Defense – The majority of the effective parts of the Raiders pass rush are gone. The game seems to be to try to cobble together enough to be respectable. I’ve seen this before. The Rams signed DBs like the formerly great Al Harris prior to the 2011 season. The ensuing disaster led the Rams to a miserable 2-14 season – costing GM Billy Devaney and coach Steve Spagnuolo their jobs. The Raiders will be $50 million under the cap going into 2014, but that construct will cost them dearly in 2012. Charles Woodson was a hell of a DB back in the day, he’s going to turn 37 in October.

Click here to read NFL Season Preview – NFC West – Watch Out for the St. Louis Rams

Click here to read NFL Season Preview – NFC North – It’s the Green Bay Packers Again in a Walk; Chicago Bears Fall to the Cellar

Click here to read NFL Season Preview – AFC South – Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

Indiana University Athletics More Valuable Than Purdue, According to Shoe/Apparel Company Deals

by Kent Sterling

Indiana fans have long looked down their noses at their state university neighbors to the north, and apparently the shoe companies that negotiate apparel deals feel the same way.

The Portland Business Journal recently filed public records requests with every FBS school for their shoe and apparel contracts, and the deal Indiana has will pay the university $850,000 in cash and provide $1,375,000 in equipment, Purdue will only reap $300K in cash and $1.1M in equipment.

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Indiana’s deal is with Adidas while Purdue’s is with Nike. Nike can reduce the cash outlay to Purdue by 25% if the size of its swoosh is diminished. At worst, IU will out earn the Boilermakers by nearly 300% in cash, and $275,000 in swag.

Only eight of the Big Ten schools complied in a manner timely enough for inclusion in the Portland Business Journal piece that includes figures from other FBS conferences.

Here are the rankings for the values of those deals for the eight Big Ten schools:

Cash Equipment

Ohio State (Nike) $1.18M $2.5M Nike can void the contract with Ohio State if the university’s football team is banned from postseason play for two years, according to the Portland Business Journal. In 2011 the NCAA banned the team from postseason play for one year.
Nebraska (Adidas) $1M $1.5M
Indiana (Adidas) $850K $1.375M
Wisconsin (Adidas) $800K $1.325M
Michigan State (Nike) $100K $1.5M Tom Izzo has a separate deal that pays him $400K, and provides $60K is swag
Illinois (Nike) $325K $1.2M
Iowa (Nike) $300K $1.15M
Purdue (Nike) $300K $1.1M

It stands to reason that Michigan and Penn State would be in the Ohio State neighborhood, while Northwestern and Minnesota would be be slumming with Illinois, Iowa, and Purdue.

There can be all kinds of rational debate among students and alums about the relative merits of the individual programs and the collective success of the athletic departments, but cash invested by businesses who take a very hard look at the value of partnerships is a solid metric for assessing value.

As for the potential argument for a wobble due to negotiation excellence by the athletic departments who did the deal, I can say that the ability for the previous Indiana University regime, led by AD Rick Greenspan, was challenged at best. I was a party to a negotiation that included Greenspan, and let’s just say I would have enjoyed buying a car or house from him.

ESPN Bill Polian’s Rankings of Playoff Contenders Omits Indianapolis Colts

by Kent Sterling

When I saw the post on espn.com that promised to reveal former Indianapolis Colts President Bill Polian’s list for teams he feels have a chance to make the 2013 playoffs, I wondered what he would have to say about his former employers.

I scrolled and scrolled through the Legitimate Contenders, Question Marks, and Risers – 15 teams in all. I saw the hated New England Patriots as legit, the Baltimore Ravens as a question mark despite an almost entirely replated defense, and the Kansas City Chiefs as a riser despite being 2-14 last season.

The Colts? Absent.

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That might have something to do with his departure after the 2-14 2011 season, and the way that new general manager Ryan Grigson cut through his roster like a like a rain forest tour guide cutting a path to the Amazon shortly after taking the helm. Allowing free agents to walk and pushing virtually everyone else out from a team that supposedly sucked because of the unavailability of Peyton Manning – including Manning – should have theoretically made the Colts worse. Instead, they rose quickly from the dead to go 11-5 and earn a berth in the 2012 playoffs.

Could Polian be angry enough about the fresh wound of being kicked to the curb to omit the Colts from a playoff watch list in favor of a 2-14 team like the Chiefs? It’s safe to be that he didn’t overlook them, or was unaware of their existence.

How does he justify picking KC? According to Polian, the Chiefs will benefit from the addition of Alex Smith at quarterback, and their last place schedule. The last place schedule impacts all of two games on the schedule, and while an upgrade, Smith won’t account for an additional eight wins.

The Chiefs, minus an aberrant 2010 in which they won 10 games, have gone a combined 19-61 since 2006. They have had the benefit of plenty of schedules that were supposed to give them two winnable games.

Andy Reid has replaced Romeo Crennel, but how does that give them a leg up on winning a wild card spot that might otherwise be claimed by the Colts?

Polian’s math is a little wanting regardless of his love for teams like the Chiefs, Lions, and Panthers.. The post doesn’t boast itself as a list of who Polian believes will go to the playoffs, but to list a total of 15 teams and have nine from the NFC and six from the AFC seems a little odd.

The legacy Polian left as an evaluator of talent in Indianapolis was magnificent through the 2006 draft. His first three selections of each of his final five drafts were not nearly as strong:

2007 – Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh, Dante Hughes
2008 – Mike Pollak, Philip Wheeler, Jacob Tamme
2009 – Donald Brown, Fili Moala, Jerraud Powers
2010 – Jerry Hughes, Pat Angerer, Kevin Thomas
2011 – Anthony Castonzo, Ben Ijalana, Drake Nevis

Of those picks, four (in bold) are still with the Colts. That can’t all be blamed on Polian. Several cuts came because of the scheme, and a few others due to injury, but moving up in the second round of the 2007 draft to take Tony Ugoh cost the Colts a first rounder in 2008 that could have been used on a player like Ray Rice, Matt Forte, or DeSean Jackson.

No one enjoys being fired, but I’m not sure what else could explain the Colts being lumped in the bottom 17.

AFC South Preview – Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss; Colts Cream of the Crop

by Kent Sterling

The AFC South has been around for 11 seasons, and the Indianapolis Colts have won the division seven times. The Tennessee Titans took two (2002, 2008), and the Houstan Texans have cashed in on the last two. Jacksonville has never won a title.

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It’s the Colts turn to resume its place on the throne because great quarterbacks win divisions, and the Colts Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the division. Matt Schaub of the Texans is pretty good, so they’ll finish second. Jake Locker of the Titans is improving, so they finish third, and Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting QB in pro football, so their fate is sealed in the cellar. That all assumes all play 16 games.

Indianapolis Colts – 12-4

I have wobbled a bit with my take on the Colts. The ball bounced their way last year, and the 9-1 record in games decided by seven or fewer points lead many to believe that they were flat-out lucky to win a total of 11 games in 2012. Add the -30 total point differential for the season, and there is no doubting a pattern of what appears to be overachievement. Andrew Luck not only threw 18 interceptions, but lofted an additional 14 balls into the hands of defenders that were dropped. For those who believe in luck (with a lower case “L”), the Colts appear vulnerable. I see a team on the rise with a special quarterback ready to allow prudence to eliminate negative plays while not eroding the gifts that caused so many positive plays. It wasn’t luck that led the Colts to 11-5; it was Luck.

Schedule – One enormous break is to play Seattle in Indianapolis. The Seahawks are unbeaten in Seattle in 2012, but that might be cancelled by the Broncos coming to Lucas Oil Stadium. Peyton Manning has long been a quarterback able to rise to the occasion during the regular season, and a return to the stadium that he built will provide exactly the kind of environment he loves. It will be interesting to do a count of #18s vs. #12s among the fans. Manning is still beloved in Indianapolis as he should be. At 37, this might be his last trip to Indianapolis as a player, and Manning will try to go out with a bang. The first two games – both at home against the Raiders and Dolphins – should give the Colts some momentum with an early 2-0 record.

Offense – This is where the Colts will win or lose games. The special players are all on this side of the ball, with Luck leading the charge with his superb physical skills and magnificent leadership. He is the most special of a potentially very special 2012 draft class of quarterbacks along with Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick. Luck has an enhanced arsenal of weapons with future hall of famer Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Dwayne Allen had an outstanding rookie season at tight end while second round pick Coby Fleener was a bit of a disappointment. Fleener had a case of the dropsies during the preseason, but starts this Sunday with a clean slate.

The running game will be bolstered by Ahmad Bradshaw, who is one of the most productive backs in the game – when healthy. Bradshaw didn’t play in the preseason as his surgically repaired foot continued to heal. He is supposedly ready to roll, and one trait of his that will be prized by Colts fans is the ability to get to the sticks for a first down. Averaging 4.6 yards per carry is gaudy, but Bradshaw’s ability to pass block will be a huge upgrade too.

Defense – What to expect from this group is one of the great mysteries of the NFL for 2013. There is mediocrity almost everywhere but safety, other than with CB Vontae Davis and OLB Robert Mathis. The preseason didn’t show Mathis at his best, but what the hell does he have to prove in the preseason at the age of 32. He had eight sacks a year ago, and doesn’t appear to have slowed any. Bjoern Werner was taken in the first round and Erik Walden was signed as a free agent. If they can form an amalgam opposite Mathis that can disrupt quarterbacks, that will help the Colts mask some deficiencies in the secondary. Greg Toler and Darius Butler will also play corner. Toler comes over from Arizona and is two years removed from ACL surgery, and has never played all 16 games in an season. If the Colts have to dip down to Cassius Vaughn as a starting CB, cross your fingers that he learned a lot in 2012. The safeties will be a strength with Antoine Bethea and LaRon Landry. Linebackers? That the Colts traded yesterday for Cam Johnson shouldn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

The pieces aren’t bad, but the aren’t great. That GM Ryan Grigson is a genius at finding complimentary defensive pieces that can fit well together is the hope. All they have to do is create one more stop than the offense yields for the Colts to win.

Houston – 9-7

The Texans have three outstanding players in Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and J.J. Watt, but elsewhere, the team appears ready to recede. Ed Reed comes over from the Ravens, but his hip may not allow him to play at a high level. Matt Schaub is good, not great, and for a team without a dominant defense to win a championship, the quarterback much be elite.

Schedule – As much as the schedule for the Colts is favorable early, the Texans first seven challenges will be difficult to answer. The AFC South matches up with the NFC West, which could be the best division in the NFL. The best three of those teams face the Texans on consecutive weeks. The Seahawks visit Houston September 29th, then the Texans head to San Francisco October 6th, and finally the upstart Rams head to Houston October 13th. That makes the opening two games at San Diego and at home against the Titans must win games before traveling to Baltimore.

Offense – The Texans have a lot of pretty good on the offensive side of the ball, and the only bit of great they have is getting a little longer in the tooth. Andre Johnson is 32, but shows no sign of slowing. Last season, Johnson might have been at his best with 112 catches and a career high 1,598 yards, but teams in the NFL sink or swim based upon the work done at quarterback. If you want evidence that the evaluation process among NFL GMs is at best a crap shoot and at worst the work of idiots, Arian Foster went undrafted in 2009, and was ranked the 26th best running back prior to that draft. Foster led the league in carries in 2012, rushing TDs in 2010 and 2012, and yards in 2010. The bad news is that Foster’s yards per carry average has dropped from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1 during his three seasons. Still really good, but another drop will have a profound effect on the Texans’ ability to move the chains.

Matt Schaub is 32, and while that’s plenty young enough to be as good as he has been, it’s statistically improbable that he’ll improve over what has been the norm throughout his career. According to pro-football-reference.com, the quarterback most similar to Schaub is Brian Sipe – the king of good not great. In virtually every statistical category, Schaub ranks in the back half of the top ten, and that’s where he’ll likely finish in 2013.

First round pick DeAndre Hopkins will start opposite Johnson at wide receiver. It’s a lot to hope for that a rookie wideout will be able to be productive as he learns the pro game.

Defense – J.J. Watt was graded as the best defensive player since Pro Football Focus began issuing them. He does everything – pressure the quarterback, stop the run, and bat down passes. As dominant as a quarterback can be on the offensive side of the ball, Watt can be that from the defensive end spot. Not only does he need to be accounted for on every offensive play, offenses need to beat him each and every play to have a chance to succeed. Beating the Texans requires beating Watt. I can’t think of another defensive player in history who warranted that level of attention.

Antonio Smith and Earl Mitchell, Watt’s defensive line mates are no slouches themselves. The linebackers in the aggregate are mediocre, and the safeties are either just okay or aging, depending upon the guy. Danieal Manning is 31, and Ed Reed will be 35 in a week. Cornerbacks are pretty good with Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson.

Tennessee – 6-10

The Titans are a little more interesting than many would expect. Quarterback Jake Locker is easy to write off as a guy ready to be consigned to the dust bin of mediocrity, but there are reasons to believe he can grow into something a bit better than that. Chris Johnson is an elite back who seems like he should be older than he is – turning 28 in a couple of week.

Schedule – The Titans season could go south in a big hurry as their first two games are both on the road against the Steelers and Texans. A split in the first two weeks give the Titans a chance to surprise, but being swept will put them in a hole from which they might extricate themselves. They play five of their six division games during the second half of the season, so even if the season starts poorly, they will have a chance to make up ground.

Offense – According to Pro Football Focus, Jake Locker was the worst quarterback in the NFL when pressured, but he was pretty damn good when unpressured. That’s true for a lot of QBs, but seems hustling the ball out under duress seems to cause more trouble for Locker than most. The Titans changed out their guards by drafting road grater Chance Warmack of Alabama and signing free agent Andy Levitre who was pretty good for Buffalo for the past four years after being taken in the second round of the 2009 draft out of Oregon State. If Warmack and Levitre can keep Locker clean and open holes for Johnson, the Titans have a chance to take steps forward from their 6-10 2012 record. The receiving corps have the potential to be Locker’s best friends or worst enemies. Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright have shown they can make big plays, but they also dropped a ton of passes last year. Losing tight end Jared Cook to the Rams in free agency won’t help, but he was a bad fit for the Titans scheme.

Defense – The Titans allowed more points than anyone else in football in 2012. Being outscored 330-471 is not an easily overcome deficit. The titans missed a lot of tackles last year, and most of the offending defenders return. The Titans took Warmack with the 10th overall pick in the 2013 draft, and the only defensive player taken by the Titans in the first round of the last six drafts is Derrick Morgan (2010). Great players play great defense, and the Titans do not have great defenders.

Jacksonville – 2-14

As the quarterback goes, so goes the team. Good rule, and a sad reality for the Jaguars. I thought about skipping the Jags as they have few fans that will seek out additional portals that will talk about how terrible they are, but this process will force me to learn their personnel and know exactly why they suck.

Schedule – It’s not a good sign when every team in the NFL but the Raiders has you circled as a win. If you want to know who is the absolute lowest rated play-by-play/analyst duo working NFL games this season, get the NFL Sunday Ticket and check in briefly during week two. The people working the Jags @ Raiders will be it. Shame that the week two matchup could be for the first pick in the 2014 NFL Draft

Offense – As if the Jaguars needed another reason to feel terrible about their prospects, first round pick Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games. Not that it would have necessarily mattered, but losing a bona fide weapon is never a good thing. Among the few plusses for the Jags is that they have real players at OT with Eugene Monroe and Luke Joeckel. They should give quarterback Blaine Gabbert time to throw, and Maurice Jones-Drew an occasional hole to run through.

MJD only played in six games, but still led the Jags in rushing with 414 yards. Given that the Jags ran for a paltry total of 1,369 yards, I was stunned that they did not finish at the bottom of the NFL in team rushing. The Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals tallied 1,265 and 1,204 respectively. The Jags also finished 30th in yards per play, ahead of the Jets and Cardinals.

Defense – Sadly, the ranking as the 30th best (of 32) teams offensively that the Jags earned in 2012 was mirrored on the defensive end. They don’t pressure the quarterback well – or really at all. They sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times total is 2012, which was five behind the Raiders for 31st.

The biggest problem for a team this bad is trying to focus from week-to-week. The Jags aren’t idiots. They know they suck, and have no hope at all for a winning season. When it goes bad, getting it to stop is hard, and it’s been going bad in Jacksonville for awhile.

Click here to read NFL Season Preview – NFC West – Watch Out for the St. Louis Rams

Click here to read NFL Season Preview – NFC North – It’s the Green Bay Packers Again in a Walk; Chicago Bears Fall to the Cellar

Grades Are in for Indystar.com’s First “Pat McAfee Show”

by Kent Sterling

Bob Kravitz has his makeup done prior to the Pat McAfee Show last night. Too many relevant punch lines to choose just one.

In terms a punter would understand, the first Pat McAfee Show was a towering kick that resulted in a fair catch at the 12 yard line. There is room for improvement, but for a first effort, pinning the opponent inside their own five was not a realistic goal.

Putting together a show that is supposed to entertain a live audience and look/sound great on radio/TV/internet is a hell of a lot harder than it looks, and in almost all areas the inaugural “Pat McAfee Show” was a success for indystar.com.

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The sound is never going to be exactly right without a massive investment in speakers and acoustics. There are endless site checks where the sound is adjusted, but they are done with an empty house. What sounded perfect is suddenly muffled and quiet. That’s the effect of filling the bar with people who can’t help but talk to one another.

That’s life in media because pleasing two masters is not possible. The show serves two purposes – drive revenue and audience, and what works for one does not work for the other. The bar that pays for the privilege of hosting the show wants a full and happy house. Indystar.com wants a unique product that drives use of its website. Making both happen, well, that’s just not possible.

Last night’s effort at Kilroy’s was pretty good. For a first effort, it was better than that. Based upon the areas by which I’ve judged my own events, I’ll grade last the Pat McAfee Show:

Talent – B

McAfee is really good. He’s energetic, likable, funny and attention deficit disordered just enough to keep the show from lagging. When the energy in the room started to lag, McAfee felt it immediately and adjusted his behavior to reel the crowd back in. As for Bob Kravitz, Mike Chappell, and Stephen Holder, there is a reason that Arthur Miller never played Willy Loman himself, and why Shakespeare is not remembered as a great actor. The Star writers are wonderfully well-informed pundits, but they are not Robin Williams or Bruce Springsteen. On the radio or TV, they can work because their energy is intimately effective. To fill a room is difficult, and requires the kind of manic outbursts in which they are just not comfortable engaging.

Performing on the stage requires playing to the back of the house – loud and big is required. On camera, nuance works. Marsha Mason is a wonderful stage actress, but on film, she is just overpowering. All of her gestures are too big, and her voice too loud. The opposite is true too for the Star writers – too quiet and small for a big room.

Staging – A

This is where radio sometimes falls apart because people working in that purely audio medium are more concerned with the sound than the look. Looking good is also expensive, and if the Star continues to try to stage more of these events, I would expect the attention to detail in staging to erode. The lighting was excellent, and the look wasn’t only impressive online, but in-person as well.

Other companies trying this stuff are going to look like crap by comparison. A table, folding chairs, and a table skirt with a logo are just not going to get it anymore.

Sound – C

This is a generous grade because getting this right is almost impossible. They wired the sound through to in-house speakers, and when that happens, riding the levels high enough to fill the room will cause feedback – that nasty high-pitched squeal. Bob and Mike are quiet guys, and Pat is loud, so getting a good mix was beyond the capabilities of the people running that aspect of the show. The sound was very good online, but catching most of the content in Kilroy’s was impossible for those not seated within 20 feet of the stage.

Overall – B

McAfee is funny and energetic, and these events need lots of energy. People are used to being entertained, and if the product falls short for two seconds, they move on to the shinier object. His monologue was self-effacing and brought honest laughs.

Newspapers aren’t in the event planning business, and writers sure aren’t in the performance business, so this had a chance to be awful. That it wasn’t is a tribute to the preparation that went into the first show, as well as the detail work executed by those behind the scenes.

Minus the audio difficulties, expecting this to be any better than it was would have been crazy, but that doesn’t warrant an A. I don’t believe I have ever been to an event like this that I would grade an A. I’ve run a ton of these myself, and would never give any of them an A, so there is nothing wrong with a B.

Indystar.com chief Karen Crotchfelt should be very happy with this B. I’m a tough grader.

I went for three reasons. The first of anything is terrifying for those who organized the deal, and the top of that list of elements that scared the hell out of the Indianapolis Star last night was the thought of an empty house. My wife and I weren’t doing anything, so we put two more people in Kilroy’s than would otherwise have been there. The second was that I’m a fan of both McAfee and Star columnist Bob Kravitz, and supporting them on a Tuesday was the least I could do. The third was morbid curiosity – there was no way this thing was going to go off without a hitch. Print people are not practiced in presenting live events, and the potential for a train wreck was a consideration in deciding to make the drive to Broad Ripple.

The result was actually much better than most radio efforts I have been a part of. The details were executed well. The lighting rig was expensive and worth it. The Star even hired a make-up artist to make the guys extra presentable. The sound was a little rough, but that’s why radio stations do their shows in studios. Kilroy’s was not designed with acoustics in mind.

I’ve written it before, and I’ll write it again – Pat McAfee gets it. He’s one of the few NFL players who understands that his life will continue long after his football career is over. If he uses his status as a player to build a media brand that can be leveraged after he’s done punting, he will have a revenue source and something productive to wake up and do.

Indianapolis Colts – Raiders Dennis Allen Refuses to Name Starter, But Does Anyway

by Kent Sterling

There is no chance – none, zero, null set – that the Oakland Raiders are going to beat the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday in the regular season opener for both teams. And Oakland coach Dennis Allen knows it.

Not naming a starting quarterback for “competitive reasons” tells fans everything they need to know about the decision Oakland Raiders coach Dennis Allen has made. It’s that neither quarterback is good enough to beat the Colts if the Colts know what’s coming.

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While it may make for a slightly longer week of preparation for Colts defensive assistants not knowing who the starter will be, it won’t make the chore of stopping the offense anymore less likely. If it was going to be a strain to put the clamps on the Raiders vaunted offense, the choice of quarterback would be clear.

The QB decision for the Raiders is like deciding which of two fully loaded pistols you will put to your head. The only chance for survival is misfire.

In reality, the decision is an easy one. During the preseason, Matt Flynn led the Raiders first team offense to 10 points in 13 drives. Terrelle Pryor tallied 32 points in 10 drives for Pryor with the second group. That’s not perfect apple to apples, but the verdict on the offense with Flynn running the show is that the Raiders cannot score. They might be worse with Pryor, but the might be a little better.

When you sit with a short stack, you tend to take more risks, and that’s what Allen is doing.

The better question than who will start at quarterback for the Raiders is why anyone would accept the job as head coach. I’ve had some bad jobs in my life, but being the head coach in Oakland appears to be worse than all of them. Yep, even worse than the research manager at a publishing house. Allen is destined for the same dustbin as the rest of the guys who took the job because being the head coach for the 32 best franchise in the NFL is better than being an assistant for the best.

Allen has also learned something about his team through this process – his team keeps secrets about as well as “Seinfeld” character Elaine Benes after a couple of gulps of peppermint schnapps. Pryor will be the guy, according to multiple media reports, which is the only choice as we discussed.

That provides some extra worry for the Colts in that containment becomes an issue with Pryor in a way it would never exist with Flynn.

It also provides worry for Flynn. If he can’t win the starting QB gig for the Raiders, there might never be another opportunity for him to run an offense. I guess there is always the Jaguars, but he has a terrible track record over the last two offseasons of winning the confidence of coaches who did everything possible to put him in a position to succeed as the starter. Do you think Pete Carroll wanted to hand the keys to the offense last season to third round pick Russell Wilson.

The Colts should roll over the top of the Raiders in the same way major conference teams destroy their paid opponents early in the college football season. Chuck Pagano’s team just need to make sure that they don’t spend Sunday night scratching their heads like the Oregon State Beavers did Saturday night after Eastern Washington beat them 49-46.

The Raiders will be who the Colts thought they were, regardless of who starts the game under center.

Indianapolis Colts – Safety John Boyett Released After Arrest

by Kent Sterling

Being arrested is very good test of value for an NFL player. If Colts safety John Boyett wanted to know where he stands as an employee for the team, he found out when he was released this morning – one day after his arrest outside Tiki Bob’s in downtown Indianapolis.

Boyett allegedly told police during his arrest that they could’t arrest him because “I’m a Colts player.” Not anymore.

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Millions of dads tell their kids, “Nothing good happens after midnight.” No one under the age of 30 believes it. They should. Boyett should have as he was arrested two hours and 52 minutes after midnight.

Playing in the NFL isn’t a right, it’s a privilege – a privilege that Boyett no longer enjoys.

While there is a part of all of us that enjoys seeing the enabled and self-important deflated with the consequences that exist for the rest of society, this is a sad day for a kid who screwed up.

We all have moments of misery caused by facing the truth that we are no more special than anyone else, and a serious wake up call was made to Boyett. He’s young and talented enough to learn from it, bounce back, and resume his career, but the legions of those with a tale to tell about how nothing good happens after midnight grew by one today.