Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Indiana University – Why Fred Glass Is Perfect as the Hoosiers Athletic Director

by Kent Sterling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OprB2MJPeHU

There are four attributes great leaders share – vision, enthusiasm, organization, and relentlessness. Indiana University Athletic Director Fred Glass shows plenty of all three in the above video without conscious effort.

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Being an AD is a tough gig these days. Less than six months ago, Rutgers had a athletic director who appeared to be doing a hell of a job. Tim Pernetti helped the school gain entry into the Big Ten, and negotiated other positive deals for the Scarlet Knights. Videos surfaced that showed basketball coach Tim Rice berating and abusing players, and despite the fact that he lobbied hard for Rice to be fired when he first saw the tape, Pernetti was cut loose along with Rice and the university’s in-house legal counsel.

It would be understandable for Glass to spend the majority of his day trying fortify his bunker so that when the bullets started flying, he would be protected. Instead, he works to improve the experience of being a Hoosier for his athletes, and to make attending events featuring those athletes more fun for fans.

That’s where Glass being relentless comes into play. Leaders who constantly tear down and rebuild tend to win. Refusing to accept dogma as physics is critical, and rejecting easy decisions because inertia demands them is both difficult and rewarding.

Glass has spent the last eight months engaged in a process to enhance gamedays for players and fans, and his leadership in that process will make the experience fans who head to Bloomington the next five weekends for home games against Indiana State (Thursday), Navy (September 7), Bowling Green (September 14), Missouri (September 21), and Penn State (October 5) different, unique, and fun.

People who buy tickets should expect something more than a version of the football game that trumps the experience of watching at home, and that will be the result of seven months of brainstorms, meetings, and gathering input. Going to see IU play football is not going to be like it was back in the 1980s when the only thing that was special were Lee Corso called quick kicks, Sam Wyche designing awful helmets, and Bill Mallory somehow rebuilding a dead program.

That’s the most obvious evidence of Glass’s work, but I don’t remember a time when Indiana University had so many reasons to be proud of it’s teams and athletes. Men’s soccer wins a National Championship, baseball goes to the College World Series, and IU comes within an eyelash of winning the Capitol One Cup. A trip to a bowl this year, and basketball moving beyond the Sweet Sixteen would be welcome enhancements, but, you know, baby steps.

And there is more. The Excellence Academy is going to continue to grow as a wonderful point of differentiation for student-athletes at Indiana. Where other schools use the skills and talents of their athletes to feather their own nests, Indiana embraces its role in the development of the human being under the helmet or on the floor winning the Big Ten.

The structural enhancements to the facilities used by the students will continue too. Glass vaguely alluded yesterday to a project that will enhance Assembly Hall, and while there are those who see Assembly Hall as a boondoggle of a regime 45 years ago that gave Indiana a multipurpose facility when a basketball arena was needed, there is something very unique that is almost irreplaceable. There is no arena similar to it – for good reason – but that has made it intrinsically part of the fabric of Indiana University.

Glass is smart enough to know that. He’s smart enough to be right with virtually every decision, and energetic enough to create buy-in from everyone within the department. That buy-in creates excellence.

It’s not quite all roses for IU football and basketball as the expectations for the basketball team were not met last year, and the football team’s evolution toward being a legit competitor in the Big Ten is a work in progress, but compared to where IU was five years ago when Glass reported for work, there is plenty of evidence Glass has everything headed in the right direction.

The only baffling aspect of Glass as an AD is that the same organization that hired Glass also hired Rick Greenspan. Either they got real smart real fast, or they got lucky as they picked names from a hat. Either way the athletes and fans at IU win.

College Football – Advice to Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel – Lie Your Ass Off

by Kent Sterling

Not a fan of scarves, but I like a guy who circumvents bad rules, and even with a Heisman that might be his greatest legacy.

There is nothing morally wrong with lying to avoid the consequence of breaking a bad rule. That may be shaky ground, but Johnny Manziel answering questions of the NCAA at this point is a lot like Colonel Hogan facing questions from Commandant Klink on “Hogan’s Heroes.” You do what you have to.

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Manziel is being hounded by the NCAA for taking cash for signing memorabilia – a violation of a bizarre rule that has gone unquestioned for a long time – as though it’s okay to restrict athletes from making any money at all because of the fame they realize as collegiate athletes. Only the schools and NCAA can profit from that fame?

It’s a dynamic that is allowed to exist nowhere else in our society, and Manziel, through his reported indifference to the rule is causing it to come under scrutiny unlike any since it was enacted.

NCAA investigators were reportedly in College Station for six hours yesterday, spending a chunk of that that talking face-to-face with Manziel.

I doubt Johnny Football needs my advice, but if he took cash for signing, he should treat the truth with indifference. Lying is a weak and loathsome act. Without the truth, we all live in deceit, but accepting a penalty for breaking a bad rule clenses no one’s soul despite the writings of Henry David Thoreau.

And let’s face what should be a very strong belief – that there is no way Manziel wasn’t paid. Anyone who has spent the hours necessary to sign 4,400 items knows it’s mind numbing and grueling.

Every year at Emmis Communications, I signed between 1,200-1,500 letters to organizations and schools asking them to use WIBC Radio as its conduit for communicating snow closing information to their employees and students. I could get my pace to 10 per minute, but no faster. To sign the 4,400 times ESPN is reporting would take Manziel over seven hours. There is no way a sharp kid like Manziel would put himself through that misery without being paid.

That the NCAA legislates to the idiocy of of student-athletesn not being paid to the value of a brand is ludicrous, and is not deserving of the respect truth connotes. Lying to those who enforce rules that equate to life’s speed traps is not just acceptable; it’s a moral imperative.

That Peyton Manning can drag a Sharpie over photos or leather and be paid six figures, and Manziel can’t is bureaucratic nonsense. The elimination of the rule would cause a problem with boosters using the ability to pay a fee to an athlete for licensing as a de facto payment to a recruit of current player, but that is a smaller problem than the one the rule creates – restricting the ability a citizen to be paid to his value – a wonderfully American concept. That the rule allows schools to reap all the rewards of its athletes’ fame makes it and those who endorse it corrupt.

There is no chance that Manziel viewed his supposed work in signing footballs and other swag as some Quixotic quest to reform the NCAA away from its arcane rules of amateurism, but his desire to be paid has put him in that very position.

Student-athletes deserve to profit from the the licensing of their brand, and that’s why the NCAA is sweating bullets over the Ed O’Bannon lawsuit that will evaluate whether the NCAA – or its member schools – have the right to require 18 year-olds to sign away the rights of their own image for eternity throughout the universe.

Manziel allegedly saw cash and was handed a pen. He did what every other human being in America would do. Sign his name, and pocket the bucks. But he shouldn’t tell anyone, wink, or betray the fruits of his labor. His family is wealthy beyond the dreams of all but a few, so a little bit of cash isn’t a red flag. The NCAA can’t compel anyone to tell the truth, or even talk.

Everyone keeps his mouth shut, the problem goes away, and Manziel enjoys one more tour around the SEC. Rules that can’t be enforced are useless, and the NCAA is learning that very quickly.

Indiana Football Unveils New Traditions and Gameday Experiences for Fans

by Kent Sterling

The view tonight of Memorial Stadium with college football’s tallest flagpole on the right.

Indiana University Athletic Director Fred Glass is P.T. Barnum with a law degree. If ever there was a man in the right place at the right time doing the right things in the right way, it’s Fred Glass.

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If there is a university more in need of his zest for fun and excitement, I don’t know where it is. Football has been an afterthought in Bloomington for decades, but regardless of the on field results, the people who come to games are going to have a hell of a good time thanks to Glass.

Glass hosted some media tonight to show off what Indiana Football fans will experience Thursday night for the first time when the Hoosiers host the first of their eight home games at Memorial Stadium against the Indiana State Sycamores.

There are a lot of ADs at major college universities doing relatively innovative things, but Glass is so damn earnestly enthusiastic about the improvements that are made by his staff that it’s impossible not to get excited right along with him.

If the players and coaches are as invested in their product as Glass is in his, the Hoosiers will shock the Big Ten and punch their ticket to a bowl.

Maybe there are moments of doubt and despair for the man celebrating five years at the helm, but it always seems like Glass is having the time of his life re-evaluating the educational experience of his athletes and the ways in which IU can become a leader in gameday experience.

There is no dearth of enhancements planned, and Glass is smart to know that fans and media are somehow fascinated by the -est of things, so when they erected a new flag pole near the southeast corner of the endzone, it was the tallest in college athletics at 154 1/2 feet. It won’t be dedicated until the Navy game, but a 30 X 60 foot flag is hanging from it as I write. There will be simple choreographed cheers for all manner of events – first downs, touchdowns, defensive stops (or tapouts), and all kinds of other stuff that will be implemented just because they are fun.

Fun goes a long way toward making a game enjoyable, and the best sometimes have nothing to do with the game itself. One advancement this season borrows from both the Indianapolis 500 and Chicago Cubs games. “Back Home Again in Indiana” will be performed prior to each game, just as it is before the race at Indy. Fans like singing. If you don’t believe me, watch a Cubs game as fans sing “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” during the seventh inning stretch and “Go Cubs Go” after every Cubs win.

If not for those songs, I’m not sure the Cubs would draw 1.6 million this season, and Glass knows it. He mentioned the need to make the in-stadium experience more enjoyable than the at-home version of the game, or he correctly asks, “Why would people come?”

The afternoon was not without drama as the media folks were asked to run through the doors as the players will prior to kickoff. They will be serenaded by loud fireworks, and as anyone who knows Glass a little surmised, we were greeted by them to. I almost collapsed, as you can see in the video below, along with some additional video and comments by Glass as he describes what fans will see – and do – in just 72 hours.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HULaQmtNCyk

Boston Celtics Coach Brad Stevens Road to the Fleet Center Ran Through Connersville’s Matt Howard

by Kent Sterling

The right fit is what all recruits and coaches should seek in one another. Brad Stevens (left) and Matt Howard (right) might be the best fit in Indiana since Quinn Buckner and Bob Knight.

To reach their potential, Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens and former Butler star forward Matt Howard needed each other. Stevens won Howard’s on early mornings when others had something better to do.

Eight o’clock pool play games at the Best of the Midwest tournament in July, 2006, were played in front of families of the players and few others. Stevens was one, and his showing up early and late for meaningless games between 16 year-olds were crucial in his rise to one of the best jobs in coaching.

Diligence is how you win in recruiting and life, especially when dealing with a young man like Matt Howard, who prizes loyalty and hard work above all else. Without Howard, Stevens would still be the head coach of the Butler Bulldogs, who would still be members of the Horizon League.

Howard was a change agent in so many ways, and he was missed by a lot of coaches for whom Howard didn’t pass the eye test, but not Stevens. He was there for every game, and that meant something. One of the great traits Howard has always embodied is in how he recognizes the best traits of his teammates and helps them succeed. That was overshadowed by his floppy hair, big feet, and occasionally awkward looking work around the basket. That he outplayed Kevin Love the two times they faced one another was overlooked as others played with more grace but less production.

No one keeps legitimate stats during the summer schedule, and even if they did, arcane rankings for who assisted on the most made three-pointers in summer basketball history would never be calculated. In the absence of real data, I am going to proclaim Howard was the all-time leader.

In the summer of 2006, Todd Lickliter was the head coach for Butler, but as he continued the tradition of winning at Hinkle Fieldhouse, the University of Iowa called to have the latest successful coach in the tree that produced Barry Collier and Thad Matta bring some of that cultural magic to Iowa City. Lickliter is now the head coach at Marian University, which shows that timing still counts.

That opened the door for Stevens, who was ready to welcome Howard and Zach Hahn from that summer team he spent hours and hours watching. Howard brought the same remarkably unselfish talent to Butler that he showed through his three summers with the Spiece Central Stars, and that led Butler to consecutive NCAA Championship games in 2010 and 2011 that would have featured some other lucky team had he decided to play at Miami of Ohio, Purdue, or Xavier – the only other schools who seriously pursued him.

Without dragging himself to those meaningless games, the relationship between Stevens and the Howard Family would not have blossomed. If not for the relationship, Howard goes elsewhere. And if Howard goes somewhere else, Stevens would be a respected coach with a compelling story – for Butler.

There are people who choose to sleep in, and then those who show up everyday. The people who are there tend to get lucky, and while Stevens’ ascension from unpaid volunteer to head coach of the Boston Celtics involved doors opening at the right time, it would never have been possible without those early mornings at Warren Central High School watching a summer team whose successes exceeded the sum of its parts.

Matt Howard is playing basketball for ratiopharm Ulm of the German Basketball Bundesliga these days for a lot of money while Brad Stevens is living his dream as the Celtics coach for a lot more money. Both guys work hard everyday at everything they do because that’s who they are. They do what they love, and they trust that who they are is the right thing to be.

Great people tend to recognize successful traits in one another, and that’s certainly the case in what has been a strikingly positive relationship for both. With Howard, Stevens became the coach of the Boston Celtics. With Stevens, Howard became the Academic All-America of the Year in 2011.

Indianapolis Colts Cut Roster to 75 – No Surprises for Fans, But Dreams End for Many

by Kent Sterling

C.O. Prime still has a cool name, but not a job with the Colts.

There was no way that any of those players cut by NFL teams today were going to make the final cut to 53, but it still hurts to get the tap on the shoulder or the call to come to the team’s office. Everyone cut today was – at the minimum – 22 players away from earning a spot on the final roster.

The inevitability of pain doesn’t lessen the hurt, so when Johnny Adams, Allen Chapman, Danous Estenor, Kellen Heard, Brandon McManus, Davin Meggett, C.O. Prime, Rich Schmeig, Ashante Williams, Maurice Williams, and Teddy Williams were told today that their careers as Indianapolis Colts were over it stung.

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Stomachs churned, phone calls to family were made, and lives changed.

All athletic dreams die. Statistically, you and I have a much better chance of winning the Powerball jackpot than leaving the sports we are best at under our own terms. It’s likely that for as long as those 11 men can remember, they have dreamed of playing in the NFL, and August meant getting ready to play on autumn Friday nights and Saturday afternoons, but always with an eye toward playing for big cash on Sundays.

There is always a chance that some of these guys will catch on elsewhere. Some may be back in someone’s camp next year, but for all intents and purposes it’s time to find something else to do with their lives. Some are prepared for that, but many aren’t.

Men who have always believed in their talents, whose girlfriends and wives have their fingers crossed for the kind of good life an NFL paycheck can provide now have to wonder what the future holds. They have gone from being members of a very exclusive club to being on the outside looking in. The password for entry has been revoked, and the keys to the magical ride of an NFL season confiscated. For some, this will be their first sniff of ordinary, and it will suck.

If there is a positive for these former players and their families, the acquisition of wealth doesn’t seem to be a mitigating factor in the misery that inevitably accompanies the end of a professional football career. I’ve spent time with a lot of former players, and with only a couple of exceptions, the lack of the camaraderie that only exists on an NFL team is a significant hole in their lives. Regardless of whether they are worth dozens or millions, there is a yearning for them that is universal.

Another bunch will join the players cut next Saturday when rosters are cut to 53 plus practice squad players, but this is the cruelest cut because being 22 guys away from a dream is a loud message that a regular season paycheck will never be forthcoming, and the dream house in a gated community will always be owned by someone else.

The last cut allows a glimmer of hope, because one of those guys was player #54. This one doesn’t.

When you see the list of those cut, give some thought to them as the obituary of a family’s hopes and dreams.

IU’s Fred Glass Talks Football Opener, Looks Back at First Five Years, and Michelle Gardner

by Kent Sterling

Fred Glass has a great gig, and I can’t believe he’s been at it for five years. Seems like yesterday he made the media rounds in Indy to talk about his being hired to run the Indiana University Athletic Department.

Since taking over, there has been some very serious change in the direction of the most visible department on the IU Bloomington campus.

The facilities are under constant review, as are the policies that govern coaches. There are minefields everywhere, and all it takes is a moment of indecision or moral equivocation, and the good work of many years can be forgotten.

The focus for Glass has always been on the welfare of the kids who trust Indiana with their athletic and academic futures. His leadership has been forward thinking, and has resulted in unprecedented success.

In the interview below, Glass talks about football, the thing that makes him most proud during his half decade, and answers questions about the Michelle Gardner story. Gardner is the softball coach who reportedly became aggressive in her appraisal of her players after a loss last spring.

It’s fascinating to hear how Glass chose to handle the situation, and if you ever had any doubt that he’s a very smart guy, you won’t after hearing the methodology used to investigate the incident and the resulting action.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns – Preseason Game Three Preview from Rick Venturi

by Kent Sterling

The Colts enter tonight’s game against the Browns with some work to do. Three players (Pat Angerer, LeRon Landry, and Hugh Thornton) who’ve seen no preseason action are back, and the offense needs to build on the momentum from last week’s win against the New York Giants.

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There are few NFL analysts who demand attention every time they talk, but Rick Venturi is one of them. Rick breaks down tape and develops his own theories based up 41 years of experience as a coach.

Rick was our guest on “Ahead of the Curve” today on 1070 the Fan, and he lays it out simply for the Colts and talks about what they will face from the Browns, a team that is at the very beginning stage of a multi-year rebuild.

“Ahead of the Curve” – 11a-1p on 1070 the Fan Is Loaded for Today – Fred Glass, Stephen Zimmerman, and Rick Venturi Highlight Guests

by Kent Sterling

Saturdays from 11a-1p are the two favorite hours of my week. Fox 59 sports director Chris Hagan and I get to sit in front of microphones and try to make sense out of sports. What could be more fun than that?

It’s especially fun with some guests from whom we can extract more eloquence and intellect than we are capable of. Today’s guests are really smart.

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Fred Glass is the athletic director at Indiana University, and is ready to see whether the fruit of his labor and that of those he manages will pay off during the critical season three of Kevin Wilson’s run as football coach. The season

Fred Glass joins us at 11:15a

starts Thursday, and after one win and then four, this year appears to be a referendum on Wilson’s ability to inject some reason for hope that a bowl trip might be in the offing.

There is also a story in indystar.com by the stellar Zak Keefer and Stephanie Wang about a tirade by IU softball coach Michelle Gardner that prompts the question, “How far is too far?” for a coach to go in motivating or chastising student-athletes. We’ll ask Fred where than line is at 11:15a when he joins us.

Stephen Zimmerman will join Chris and me at Noon from the Elite 24 basketball event in New York City. Stephen is the top ranked big man in the 2015 high school class, and will talk about being recruited. He’s a very smart kid, and with an offer from Indiana as well as every other program in college basketball, he’ll share the weirdness that goes along with being very popular among men in the 40s or 50s who run college basketball programs. Stephen was in Indianapolis last month for a summer tourney, and proved not just a solid player, but a very thoughtful young man.

Stephen Zimmerman at 12 Noon.

Last up for the day, we decided to finish the show strong with Rick Venturi, who continues to prepare each week of the NFL season as though he’s leading a defense against whomever the Colts and Rams are playing. He is one of the hardest working analysts in football media, and the depth of his unique insights are absolute must-listens for those who want to know what they will see in tonight’s critical game three of the preseason. Okay, critical might be an overstatement, but of the four games, this is the biggest.

Rick will tell us what to look for tonight as we try to project what the Colts will look like in 2013. Are they

Rick Venturi at 12:45p.

going to be able to win 11 as they did last year, or was that record a fool’s gold for a team built to win seven?

Rick will have answers that are well research through a process developed during 41 years of coaching at the highest levels.

If that’s not enough, Chris and I will tell you what thrills and gripes us.

I can’t wait for 11a. The preparation is finished and all that remains is the performance. Not sure which is more fun. If you are in central Indiana, listen on 1070 the Fan or 107.5 FM. Outside the area, click here and then click on listen live. If you miss the show, the three interviews will be available at kentsterling.com shortly after the show.

NFC North Preview – It’s the Green Bay Packers Again in a Walk; Chicago Bears Fall to the Cellar

by Kent Sterling

The difference between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears can be summed up in the following 18 words, “With the fourth pick of the 2005 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Cedric Benson, running back, Texas.” The Packers waited 20 more picks to declare their future by taking gunslinger Aaron Rodgers.

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Eight years later, Rogers is regarded as the best quarterback in the game, and Cedric Benson spent the 2012 season with the Packers (most of it on IR). From 2005-2007, Rodgers waited behind Brett Favre, and Benson misbehaved his way out of Chicago.

The Bears haven’t been the same since.

1 – Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Schedule – The NFC North, like all divisions in the NFL play very similar schedules. They play each other twice, and then a division in both the AFC and NFC. That leaves two games that differ from team to team based on where they finished in their division. The Packers play a sweet alternation of home and away only interrupted by two straight at Lambeau Field right smack dab in the middle of the schedule against the Bears and Eagles. The teams on the schedule which differ are against the 49ers and Falcons. The opener against the 49ers in San Francisco is a big game for both teams, but especially for the Pack, who dropped both their opener and closer against the 49ers in 2012. The North plays the AFC North and NFC East. The Ravens have revamped their defense, but the Bengals, Steelers, and Browns are all looking to take a step forward. The NFC East could be very similar. The Eagles are either to to improve or fall completely apart. Will Chip Kelly’s offense with Michael Vick at the helm soar or crash? Good question. It seems the only sure thing is that the Cowboys will remain mediocre. The health of RG3 will have a lot to do with the Redskins’ playoff hopes. Having the NFC Championship Game combatants as their wild card games is the price for winning the North last year.

Offense – This is Aaron Rodgers offense, and as long as he’s upright, they are going to be a beast. Don’t worry about the losses of wide receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver (with only eight catches in 2012, DD wasn’t a factor anyway). Randall Cobb caught 80 balls in 104 targets for a very righteous 77%. On the other side is the deep threat James Jones, who is targeted on first, second, and third down almost equally. He caught only 65.3% of his targets, but passes to Jones are typically a little deeper. He was a touchdown machine with 14, nearly as many Jermichael Finley (2), Jordy Nelson (7) and Cobb (8) combined. Then there is the similarly sure-handed Nelson who caught 49 balls on 73 targets. Let’s not forget Finley, who grabbed a career high 61 balls = 70.1% of his targets. While Nelson is a third down target, Finley is three times as likely to be thrown to one first and second down. This is the last year of Finley’s contract, so if he is ever going to play a consistently productive 16 games, this will be the year.

The area where the Packers need to improve – and will – is in being able to run. It’s not important to that Eddie Lacy run for 1,500 yards, but he must be able to move the sticks on third and two or less. Alex Green led the Packers in rushing in 2012 with 464 yards – a result of injury to Cedric Benson and himself. Rodgers was second with 259. Lacy is built for what the Packers need.

The offensive line is shuffling around all over the place, but will be just fine. Rodgers is smart enough not to let the pressure force turnovers and sacks are a part of the Aaron Rodgers equation, and Lacy can find seams.

Defense – Clay Matthews supplies the pressure and the best group of cornerbacks in the NFL make throwing the ball for big chunks of yards difficult. The defensive line is not exactly the three blocks of granite, but Datone Jones, Ryan Pickett, and C.J. Raji a are damn difficult to single block, and that leaves plenty of room for A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones, and Nick Perry to make plays.

Overall – Minus the games against Atlanta and San Francisco, the division plays the same schedule, except the Lions, Vikings, and Bears need to play the Packers twice each. That mitigates any disadvantage. The Packers have the best quarterback in the division – and the league – at that means they will win the division as long as Rodgers can move without assistance.

Minnesota Vikings (9-7)

Schedule – While the Pack play the Falcons and 49ers, the Vikings play the Panthers and Eagles. That should help them see finish .500 for the season.

Offense – The Vikings are a tough team to predict wins and losses because regardless of all else, Adrian Peterson can win games with his feet, and that allows Leslie Frazier to see every offensive play as a game breaker. Stay close, and let A.P. win it is not a bad mantra. The Vikes don’t really have much else to make defensive coordinators sweat. The only positive about Christian Ponder is that the pressure to keep wife and ESPN sideline reporter Sam happy will have him working 22 hours a day to improve. The bad news is that he was the least accurate deep ball passer in the league in 2012, and his weaponry didn’t improve much. Greg Jennings health has been an issue, and first round draft pick Cordarrelle Patterson is going to take awhile to develop much like virtually every wide receiver that comes into the league. Kyle Rudolph is a reliable weapon at tight end, but writing about the receivers and Ponder on the Vikings is like writing a review of a Ruths’ Chris Steakhouse and leading with paragraph on the iceberg lettuce.

As AP goes, so goes the Vikings offense. If he’s healthy for 16 games, he has a shot at 2,000 yards, and the Vikings could win as many as 10 games.

Defense – The focus, as it seems to have been for generations in Minnesota, is on the pass rush. Jared Allen, Brian Robison, Kevin Williams, and Everson Griffen can change the game at any time with a sack/strip. They combined for 30 sack last year, and the pressure they apply makes a questionable secondary passable. Minnesota ranked right smack in the middle of the league in most defensive statistics, including a obviously average -1 in giveaway/takeaway.

The defensive backfield could be a significant problem with Antonio Wingfield gone. His replacement will be an inexperienced corner regardless of whether it’s Josh Robinson or 2013 first rounder Xavier Rhodes. Robinson was regularly torched as a rookie last year. Either way they go, Rodgers, Matt Stafford, and Jay Cutler are going to test that side of the field.

I would like to share something with you that is remarkable about this defense other than the front four, but I can’t. Leslie Frazier is one of my favorite guys in the NFL. He clawed his way up from nowhere to fashion a very successful coaching career after his playing career with the Chicago Bears was derailed during what should have been a very happy day in his life. Frazier tore his knee apart during a reverse on a punt return in Super Bowl XX, and that was that. His first nine seasons were spent at Trinity International in Deerfield, Illinois. That is called starting at the bottom.

Overall – Hard to say it any other way. If Peterson stays healthy, and the Vikings don’t wear him out, they have a chance to win games. He makes them an exception to a pretty solid rule of football – the best quarterback wins. Peterson is a throwback to a time when a back was the marquee player on his team. Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and Barry Sanders preceded him. Longevity will determine whether he joins them.

Detroit Lions (7-9)

A strange team with some excellence, and some wretched. Megatron is one of the most imposing players in the NFL regardless of position. I walked beside him in the tunnel on the way to the field prior to the Rams game, and while most NFL players are smaller than you picture them, Calvin Johnson is monolithic in the same way Dwight Howard is when you sit court side at an NBA game.

Schedule – The wild cards are Tampa and Arizona, but the Cardinals are going to be different if not better. Tampa will be – well, a win in Detroit.

Offense – Matt Stafford is an interesting guy. He can make all the throws, but he can be fooled by coverages, and his release point drops. No matter the work a quarterback does, a very smart defensive coordinator and former NFL head coach told me, the way he picks up a rock and throws it the first time as a child is the way he’ll throw a football when under duress. Stafford is comfortable throwing sidearm, so that’s what happens now and again. Losing both starting tackles from 2012 is not going to help. That won’t hurt their run blocking much, but pass protection could be frightening for Stafford. If I were his health insurance carrier, I would have a team of actuaries with their slide rules out trying to predict our exposure. Reggie Bush will be a legitimate threat to catch 60 balls out of the backfield, and Megatron will have to catch the rest.

Defense – Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are bonafide badasses. They are among the top DTs in the NFL, and are joined by #5 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft Ziggy Ansah, Israel Idonije, and Jason Jones. As for the secondary, I don’t know what’s going on back there. According to Pro Football Focus, an incredible 11 different DBs played more than 150 snaps, and only one played 600 or more. As a result, the Lions sucked against the pass. Well, of course they did. How would they not? When you are into third teamers, life is not going to be pleasant unless you are a receiver and quarterback playing against them. The linebackers return, minus Justin Durant, but that could be a bad thing as minus Durant, that group wasn’t great against the run.

Overall – I love their defensive front and Megatron. Bush is an asset as a receiver, and Stafford is mercurial but improving. No chance to make the playoffs in this division, but the Lions are occasionally going to smite someone. The City of Detroit deserves better. They have enough problems without worrying about the Lions.

Chicago (6-10)

Lovie Smith being punted as the head coach was a surprise, but that’s the way most teams in the NFL work. After nine or ten years, teams get antsy and feel that they are just a new coach away from breaking through the ceiling to a championship. The Steelers have been the most consistent NFL franchise since 1972, and they have had a total of three head coaches during that time, but everyone else knows better, so Lovie gets the boot.

Marc Trestman was hired to lead the offense in a different direction, and he will. He’s said to be an offensive genius, but the guy who he needs to teach to run his offense has shown a propensity for anti-genius behavior.

The Bears are getting old almost everywhere, and they might be in a position in two years where they long for the records that Lovie put together over his nine seasons. Of the four Pro Bowlers from the defensive side of the ball, only Henry Melton will be younger than 30 at the end of the 2013 season. Lance Briggs will be 33, Charles Tillman is already 32, and Tim Jennings will turn 30 on Christmas Eve.

Offensively, the teeth are growing long too. Quarterback Jay Cutler is 30, and while he’s likely to maintain his level of play for a few more years, he’s unlikely to improve, and what he did in 2012 simply wasn’t good enough to go to the playoffs for a variety of reasons. It wasn’t all Cutler’s fault, but 38 sacks, 19 TDs, and 14 picks do not reflect a championship level of play. Cutler is good enough to inspire hope, but not quite good enough to win it all.

Matt Forte is going to turn 28 toward the end of the 2013 season, so he’s another guy who is who he is, hwich isn’t bad, but in a division with the Vikings, Lions, and Packers, it isn’t enough. Devin Hester will be 31, and Brandon Marshall is 29 – both beyond the threshold where improvement can be expected.

If the Bears are going to leap forward to a championship anytime soon, I don’t see anything that would lead a reasonable person to foresee it.

Offense – The Bears go as quarterback Jay Cutler goes, and that won’t be very far. This is Cutler’s contract year, and that will put additional pressure on a guy who doesn’t need any. Trestman is called the “Quarterback Whisperer”, but he hasn’t met Jay Cutler during a contract year yet. The arm is world class but the ability to read coverages comes and goes. Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall are the workhorses, and behind them are guys who do not inspire hope for success. Cutler hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2009, and backup Josh McCown has started only 33 games in his nine seasons in the NFL for a reason.

Defense – Healthy, they are pretty good, but for how many games can Peppers, Melton, Briggs, and Tillman be expected to ignore father time’s less than subtle reminders. New linebacker Jon Bostic has shown the ability to lay the wood to offensive players, but as the 50th overall pick in the 2013 draft, does he make enough money to pay the fines for those hits?

Overall – Bears fans consistently overrate their favorite team as though simply by wearing the jersey of Sayers, Payton, George (Bill not Jeff), O’Bradovich, Butkus, Fencik, Luckman, and Grange they should excel. I wish it was true.

There are teams in the NFL that I believe should surprise by winning more than many predict, like the Rams and Brown. Conversely, there are teams that will lose more, and the Bears appear primed to be one of those.

Ryan Braun’s Apology Shows Worst Weasel in Sports at His Strategic Best

by Kent Sterling

Is Jim Carrey too long in the tooth to star in a sequel as Ryan Braun?

Taking credit for coming clean should require that the admission and apologies come prior to compelling evidence of guilt being presented, and loudly and falsely proclaiming innocence in front of microphones and in private whispers to people in baseball.

Braun not only claimed not to have used PEDs, but told people that the low level functionary who was trusted to convey the urine sample that resulted in his first finding of guilt is both an anti-Semite and a Cubs fan.

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After yelling about his innocence in spring training, Braun should issue his mea culpa through the Brewers media relations department and website.

If you want to read his apology, click on the link. First, let’s revisit his litany of lies:

“This is all B.S. I am completely innocent.”

Google the phrase, “I am completely innocent.” It appears to immediately follow the commission of a crime each and every time. I can’t find one instance of this phrase’s use which it is not uttered by a person who is guilty.

“By no means am I perfect, but if I have made any mistakes in my life, I’ve taken responsibility for my actions. I truly believe in my heart and would bet my life that this substance never entered my body at any point.”

No, he’s not perfect, and oddly he has not taken responsibility for his actions. He’s written a statement that he has not answered for. Bold words for a liar. At least Braun didn’t hedge on the bet. He went big.

“There are a lot of haters – a lot of people who doubted me and a lot of people who continue to doubt me.”

And they were right to hate and right to doubt. People who refuse to trust any public figure who denies the truth is validated by the behavior of those like Braun, Nixon, Clinton, John Edwards, Anthony Weiner, and others.

“When you know you’re innocent of something, it’s extremely difficult to have to prove it when you’re in a process where you’re 100% guilty until proven innocent.”

The reason it’s hard for the innocent to be believed in the court of public opinion is because of liars like Braun who refuse to tell the truth. Every poor bastard in sports who is wrongly accused from this point forward should drive to Braun’s house, knock on his front door, and punch him in the mouth.

“If I had done this intentionally or unintentionally, I would be the first one to step up and say, ‘I did it.'”

No, you would not be. You would be among the very last weasels to own up to anything because that is what you have been. What you do, not what you say, is what you are.

“I have been an open book, willing to share detail from every aspect of my life as part of this investigation, because I have nothing to hide.”

Oddly, he was willing to personally share this open book of his soul only when proclaiming his innocence. Now that he’s apologizing, Braun is staying out of the public eye. Lying into a microphone appears to have been easier for Braun than would be telling the truth – or whatever sliver of the truth was contained in the statement released yesterday.

“I have always taken tremendous pride in my image and my reputation in being a role model, and handling myself in the right way and doing things the right way.”

Does Braun understand what the meaning of the word pride is?

Braun is a loathsome sort who obviously can’t be trusted, so why would anyone believe his latest version of the truth, “During the latter part of the 2011 season, I was dealing with a nagging injury and I turned to products for a short period of time that I shouldn’t have used. The products were a cream and a lozenge which I was told could help expedite my rehabilitation.”

Okay, sure. Yeah, right. Braun forfeited the luxury of believability by lying to friends, family, teammates, and anyone watching his dog and pony show in February, 2012. He is guilty of doping throughout his career – all the way back to the University of Miami because that’s the narrative I choose to believe, and because Braun’s denials only fortify its validity.

You don’t regain trust with an apology. Lying isn’t an isolated act, it’s a betrayal of flawed character, and a written apology is the absolute weakest form of capitulation. A lair is a liar is a liar.

Braun is a strategist, and when an apology finally became the only sound strategy, he used it. The next time Braun is presented with a decision requiring a strategic assessment, he will make it through the same prism that resulted in the first avalanche of self-righteous deceit. His statement that he cheated only in late 2011 is likely the result of the same evaluatory process.

While Braun is being pilloried by everyone in baseball and the media today for not standing at a podium to show his contrition and answer questions from another self-righteous group of kooks, he’s hardly the first liar to get caught and won’t be the last.

There will be hundreds of meetings today where a response to an embarrassing media report will be discussed, and in exactly none of them will someone stand up and say, “Let’s just tell the truth.” At least not without being laughed out of the room.

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