Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Indianapolis Colts Radio and TV – Keeping Track of NFL Preseason Players from Broadcast Booth Is Impossible

by Kent Sterling

Can you tell me who has the ball in this photo? Now tell me who made the tackle during this game at Ford Field between the Rams and Lions.

Yes, Don Fischer and Bob Lamey misidentified some players yesterday during their respective broadcasts, and that kind of thing used to drive me a little crazy. Watching on TV, I could always see what was going on, and never understood how I could see what they couldn’t.

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Then I spent two seasons as the spotter for St. Louis Rams road game radio broadcasts. I traveled with the team, and would rather stay busy than just lounge around in the press box, so I sat next to play-by-play voice Steve Savard and pointed to his chart as I recognized who caught passes or made tackles.

It sounds easy. It sounds really easy. I’ve watched a lot of football over the years, and certainly understand the game well enough to point to the names of the guys making plays. That’s what I thought.

What I didn’t know is that the visiting radio booth is often perched in the place farthest from the field, and if it’s in the corner of the stadium, we might be 100 yards from the play and 150 feet up.

The first game I did was in Kansas City, and the booth is at the highest point in Arrowhead Stadium. Preseason games feature expanded rosters and constantly churning shifts at all positions, and the Chiefs numbers are almost indistinguishable from one another. The linebackers wearing 55, 58, 56, and 53 making tackles moving toward us were impossible to tell apart, especially making tackles on running plays.

I tried with the naked eye, binoculars, and back to naked eye. My shrugs to Steve outnumbered the plays where I confidently pointed to the correct name on Steve’s chart.

Keeping track of the number of consecutive plays where I was able to identify the tackler seemed like a fun diversion. It was until I finished the game with a high water mark of three.

I was fortunate that Steve is a pro’s pro, and that technically I was in charge of the product. Firing myself was out of the question, and Steve was unlikely to hit me, so I got through that game without a consequence more unpleasant than guilt over not helping. There was another result of that game – a total and complete empathy for the people calling games, and their occasional slips in getting the ball carrier or tackler wrong.

The most important thing I learned was that there is nothing wrong with not saying anything until you are sure. Trying to be lightning fast at the expense of the being 100% accurate will bite you in the ass a surprising proportion of the time.

I became relatively competent at recognizing what Steve wanted from me, and as I accepted that a spotter can hurt with a mistake a hell of a lot more than he can help by being accurate, I became less a hinderance to the product.

Being a spotter is a lot like being a football player in that way. If I could go 50-for-50 in identifying the tackler, that was a much better day than going 62-for-64. Better to not point at all after 20 plays than to point incorrectly once. Being wrong was a turnover, and we don’t like turnovers.

The network guys have a coterie of producers, spotters, and other assorted helpers to keep them on the beam. The local TV guys during the preseason, and the radio guys do their best with a skeleton crew.

So the next time you watch a Colts preseason game called by Don Fischer or listen to any game called by Bob Lamey, cut those guys some slack. It’s a hell of a lot harder to accurately call plays as they happen than it appears from your couch.

Buffalo Bills Bury Colts 44-20 in Preseason Rehearsal

by Kent Sterling

Just keep repeating, “It just doesn’t matter like Bill Murray and the other counselors in “Meatballs.”

The Colts looked awful today against a Buffalo Bills team likely to be among the worth in the NFL

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What a difference a year makes. A year ago tomorrow, the Colts throttled the St. Louis Rams 38-3 to usher in a new era in Indianapolis football. Ryan Grigson, Chuck Pagano, and Andrew Luck took their positions and made the new look Rams look a lot like the old look Rams.

Today, everything is new for the Bills, and coming off an 11-5 season and return to the playoffs, the Colts have nothing to prove but a great deal to improve.

The bad news today was that a lot of guys with horseshoes on their hats looked like this might have been their first effort at competitive football. The good news is that 30 of them will never play a meaningful minute for the Colts.

More good news – the Colts went 0-5 in the 2005 preseason, including a loss to the Bills, before running off 13 straight wins to start the season. A year later, the Colts meandered through a 1-3 preseason, and then won the Super Bowl. In fact, from 2005-2010, the Colts posted a posted a 4-22 record. Their regular season record during that six season span was 75-21.

There appears not to be an inverse relationship for the Colts as they also went 1-3 in the 2011 preseason before being an even more putrid 2-14 while earning the #1 pick that netted Andrew Luck.

The preseason sucks for fans, media, and virtually everyone involved because the results have no bearing on what will come in the regular season. There is no way to watch these tests of will (not for the players and coaches, but for the fans who have to tack open their eyes to make it through the entire game) and glean any meaningful information.

Good players look terrible because they know enough to save their bullets for the real action, and bad players look like world beaters because every snap represents another chance to earn what will likely be the best paying gigs of their lives. They knock heads with other longshots trying to impress somebody enough to earn the 53rd spot on the active roster.

The parade of fans into Lucas Oil Stadium for the first preseason game is always amusing. People are hyped for the action until it starts, and then they remember what preseason means and start to look at their watches like they can’t wait to leave.

Good, bad, and ugly are never quite what they appear to be in the preseason. When the fur flies in September, a win today won’t help either the Bills or Colts win games. The best result of a preseason game is health, and the worst is injury.

So today, despite losing by 24 points to a rebuilding franchise, was a good day. There appeared to be a couple of dings, but nothing more significant.

For those of you who enjoy numbers, Andrew Luck completed 4-of-6 passes for 51 yards before calling it a day after two series. Matt Hasselbeck took over and hit 4-of-8 passes for 75 yards, with a touch and pick. T.Y. Hilton caught a 45-yard TD pass from Hasselbeck that showed the fans what we’ve seen for two weeks at Colts camp – that Hilton is no flash in the pan. Chandler Harnish moved in as Colts quarterback early in the second quarter and finished the game. He completed 14-of-33 passes for 109 yards with an interception.

Two defensive players seemed to find themselves in the right place at the right time again and again. Dax Swanson recovered three fumbles, and Delano Howell led the team with 12 tackles – double the next closest Colts defender.

Next up, a trip to the magnificent MetLife Stadium to play the New York Giants a week from tonight at 7p. What we’ll see then will be no more meaningful than what we saw today.

Indianapolis Colts Receiver Marvin Harrison’s Speech Will Have to Wait

by Kent Sterling

Retired Indianapolis Colts receiver Marvin Harrison will be a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and be forced to speak in public, a task he will loathe more than dropping a sure touchdown pass thrown by longtime partner in crime Peyton Manning, but that will have to wait at least a year.

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Bob Kravitz wrote a piece for the indystar.com today that pledged Harrison’s election to the hall in his first year of eligibility is a fait accompli. It isn’t, and it won’t be.

The logjam at receiver was broken a bit this year by Cris Carter’s induction after six years on the ballot, and right or wrong pecking order matters in the minds of the 44 men who decide the validity of the nominations. Carter and Harrison are statistical brothers who both lacked popularity in the media. They aren’t exactly the same guy, but Harrison has a whole lot more in common with Carter than he does with the last receiver to gain entry in his first year as a nominee, the incomparable Jerry Rice.

Incomparable isn’t just a fancy word defining Rice’s quality as a receiver, it’s also an important designation among the voters trusted to debate and vote for each class.

Harrison is a top five modern receiver without question, and very deserving of a bust in Canton, but if Harrison goes in on his first attempt, then Terrell Owens will have to, and then Randy Moss too. All are a bit nuts in the way many great receivers are, but the hall’s voters will not want to group those three kookaloos with the sane and splendid Rice.

There are also the candidacies of Andre Reed and Tim Brown to consider. Reed has been defeated through the process as a finalist for seven years, and with Harrison, Moss, and Owens coming online, his best chance for the bust he deserves will be in 2014.

Tim Brown and Isaac Bruce may be on the outside looking in for awhile, but not Reed.

Harrison was a pro’s pro during his 13 year career, but not at the level of Rice, who may wind up being the last of the first ballot receivers – unless his stupefying numbers and record of winning is equaled.

Here is a look at how Rice, Harrison, Moss, and Owens compare in receiving statistics:

Rec. Yards TDs SBs won 1st Team All-Pro

Rice* 1,549 (1) 22,895 (1) 197 (1) 3 9
Carter* 1,101 (2) 13,899 (9) 130 (4) 0 2
Harrison 1,102 (3) 14,580 (6) 128 (5) 1 3
Moss 982 (9) 15,292 (3) 156 (2) 0 4
Owens 1,078 (6) 15,934 (2) 153 (3) 0 5
Bruce 1,024 (7) 15,208 (4) 91 (10) 1 0
Brown 1,094 (5) 14,934 (5) 100 (7) 0 0

* Hall of Fame members

Rice is the all-time NFL leader in yards from scrimmage, touchdowns, all-purpose yards, and playoff games. So incredibly dominant in all categories is Rice that there must be some level of honor that is reserved specifically for him, and first ballot hall of famer is the only port available.

Harrison while a magician in both getting open and staying clean of major collisions, is one of several. Not that is should matter, but among the media there is no separating the professional from the personal, and Harrison was difficult. Unpleasant men tend not to get the benefit of the doubt from the media when it comes time for honors.

I’m afraid Tim Brown and Isaac Bruce may have a significant wait to get in – if they ever do.

I will bet Bob a steak at Mo’s that come February, 2014, Marvin’s name will not be among among those who are invited to the big party in Canton that summer. Bob’s good company, so either way I win. The beef (non-Kobe as neither of us is compensated to our true value) will taste a little bit sweeter if Bob has to dip into his dusty wallet, but it will be a good night regardless.

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Best “Ahead of the Curve” Ever Set for Saturday at 11a – IU’s Derek Elston, BTN’s Tom Dienhart, and ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky Will Join

by Kent Sterling

The best two hours of my week are bearing down on me like the State Fair train headed toward fried treats. The guest list is massive, and the news could keep me talking for eight hours instead of two.

I’m so damned mad at the self-indulgent whining about discipline from LSU football coach Les Miles as he reinstated Jeremy Hill under the cover of a team vote, I could scream. Early commitments appear not to be commitments as much as they are the ill-considered yes of a 14 year-old. And the NCAA took minutes to realize that Jay Bilas was 100% right in his assertions about the NCAA’s hypocrisy in selling the images of student athletes.

Derek Elston will join the show at 11:15a to update us on his plans to play professional basketball, and talk about his experience at Indiana during a time of tremendous change for the program.

For those who missed the illuminating interview Dan Dakich had with James Blackmon Sr. to discuss his son’s decommitment from Indiana nearly three years after pledging his love to Tom Crean and Indiana, we will replay a portion of it, and then take your calls. We don’t take calls too often, but there is a lot to think about and the calls might supply some clarity. 239-1070 is the number if you’re interested.

Big Ten Network resident genius Tom Dienhart will preview the college football season with particular emphasis on Indiana and Purdue at 12:15p. Kevin Wilson is entering his third year running the Hoosiers, and fans are optimistic about a season with 19 returning starters, the fourth best recruiting class in the conference, and five home games to start the season. In West Lafayette, Darrell Hazell begins his first season at Purdue. He succeeded at Kent State in his second year before agreeing to take the reins for the Boilers.

And on the eve of the preseason opener for the Indianapolis Colts, ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky will preview the AFC South. Are the Colts as good as their 11-5 record from 2012 would indicate, and can the Jaguars possibly be that bad?

I love this time of year. Nobody knows what the hell is going to happen. Hope is everywhere, and moral compromise is rampant.

Tomorrow, I get to crack open a delicious Coke and vent verbally instead of in columns here as I do everyday.

If you have a question for any of our guests, tweet it to me @kentsterling, and if I think it will prompt an interesting response, I’ll ask it. If you miss the show when it airs live on 1070 the Fan and 1070thefan.com, the interviews will be posted here shortly after the show ends.

Indianapolis Colts – Chuck Pagano Talks About What’s Left for Prep to Play Buffalo

by Kent Sterling

If preseason games don’t do much to illuminate the level of play for any team (and they don’t), the workouts where attempts at comparative analysis is impossible are futile.

The workouts are finished in preparation for the preseason opener Sunday against the Buffalo Bills at Lucas Oil Stadium, but the work isn’t finished.

Fans will pour into Lucas Oil looking forward to the return of football, will be baffled by the news rule for bringing bags into the stadium, and then overreact to the result whatever it is.

What is left to do? Coach Chuck Pagano answered that question after today’s workout, as well as provided a list of those who will sit out this game.

Indianapolis Colts – Five Statistics to Ignore When Talking About QB Andrew Luck

by Kent Sterling

One of the only things I’ve learned at Indianapolis Colts Training Camp is that their quarterback, the 2012 #1 overall pick in the draft, is the real deal. Andrew Luck has all the traits of an exceptionally talented player in the NFL.

I’ve stared at Luck during workouts in Anderson during training camp until I felt like a creep in a schoolyard, and never did his enthusiasm waver. Not once. Through every snap, the guy is totally keyed in and ready to execute. I’ve watched and re-watched every snap Luck took last year, and not once did he take a play off.

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At a celebrity softball game to benefit the Indiana Children’s Wish Fund eight weeks ago, Luck not only played but led his team. He was relentlessly enthusiastic, and as silly as it sounds, he elevated the play of his teammates.

There are tangibles that statistician-types cite in grading quarterbacks that paint Luck in a less than positive light, and these analysts should be ignored by fans because the sum of the numbers don’t equal the whole of the quarterback. There are some quarterbacks that can be painted as excellent through stats who never win a thing, and others who win a lot with some goofy looking numbers. Jay Cutler is a good example of the former while Luck is definitely in the latter.

Here are five numbers that are meaningless:

14 – That is the number of dropped interceptions Luck threw is 2012. If statcentric kooks are going to add the dropped picks to Luck’s total, they should also add the 61 misses that were directed to Donnie Avery to Luck’s completions. Yeah, Luck might have been fortunate a few times when he tried to force passes into tight spots, but how many of those risky passes were caught for gains that led to points that won close games.

9-1 – People are citing the Colts record in one possession games as a reason for their likely recession to the mean. The Colts didn’t win nine of ten close games because they had a hot streak at a roulette table. They won because Luck and the Colts found a way to score last. That’s what wins games. It wasn’t luck – it was Luck.

122 – Luck got hit that many times last season, and that’s a lot of punishment to take during an NFL season, and while no one wants Luck to get hit that many times in 2013, especially Luck, he was athletic enough to avoid meaningful injury from any of them. That’s an outstanding ratio of zero injuries to 122 wallops. Luck was superb at evading direct contact, and that’s the key to avoiding injury.

41 – Yes, Luck was sacked often, but how many plays did he prolong at his own peril without being sacked that led to plays that helped lead to that 9-1 record in one possession games? The stat guys want fans to downgrade Luck as a quarterback because of 41 negative events when that same competitiveness led to hundreds of positive, game-changing plays. You know who led the NFL in sacks and yards lost as a result? Aaron Rodgers. Case closed.

54.1% – Luck didn’t wow the NFL with his completion percentage, but that number is more germane to the scheme. The longer the pass, the less likely it will be completed. The Colts threw the ball deep. Luck is a winning quarterback, and it’s not always pretty. It doesn’t need to be. Beating the Houston Texans doesn’t require 80% of Luck’s passes to be caught – just the right ones.

Here’s a number for you. 7. That’s the number of game-winning drives to which Luck led the Colts, and that places him 25th all-time in career comebacks – after only one season. 16 starts, and Luck ranks among the top 25 in comebacks.. He is a game-changer who cannot be evaluated through statistics. I love numbers and use them often, but his best work does not show up on pro-football-reference.com.

Indianapolis has been very fortunate to be the home for two very different but great quarterbacks. Peyton Manning is without peer as a builder of an excellent stat sheet. He won in the regular season at an unequaled rate. Andrew Luck is a different kind of guy. He’s physically gifted, and can make all the throws, but he’s a gunslinger who can win games through different means.

Luck is an amalgam of many of the best who have ever played. There is some Favre in there, some Manning, and some Roethlisberger. Stir it all up and it’s one hell of a potLuck stew.

Six Reasons Early Commitments Like James Blackmon’s Should Stop

by Kent Sterling

Kids change their minds after three years, and James Blackmon Jr. did that yesterday.

A person’s word is his bond, but there is no way for a 14 year-old to have the vaguest clue what he is promising when he commits to attend a university and play basketball.

There are those who will say that coaches can’t have any idea what kind of player an eighth grader will be when he’s 14, and they are wrong. There was absolutely a 100% likelihood that, barring injury, Eric Gordon was going to be exactly what he became. Same was true with Michael Conley and Greg Oden. The special ones – you can tell.

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Coaches offering an eighth grader is only ridiculous because the commitments are so rarely honored, and because the acceptance of the offer puts a target on the kid’s back.

Whether a coach is wise to offer junior high students is a debate for another time. I tend to find it creepy, but if the early offer gives a coach an advantage, who’s to argue him off that position based upon my threshold for creepy.

The NCAA can’t legislate against early offer/commitments because it would be entirely unenforceable. What is said between a coach and a player’s family is impossible to prove without someone wearing a wire, and I don’t think treating a kid like a state’s witness in a mob trial is worth catching a coach asking him to attend his university.

Here are the six reasons parents and kids should reject all offers made before a basketball player’s junior season:

#6 – Coaches follow money, and sometimes that means leaving – If you or your son commits to a program four years prior to attending the school, he’s really committing to a coach, and coaches tend to migrate toward cash. Even Brad Stevens, who I thought would be at Butler for as long as Tony Hinkle was, left for the NBA. It’s hard to turn down the kind of cash that will keep a family from wanting for four generations, and few ever do. The chances are better than 50/50 that the coach offering you in 2013 will be gone in 2017 no matter what they tell you.

#5 – A kid needs to establish himself as a human being in high school – Being “the guy who’s going to Indiana” breaks any anonymity he might enjoy. The train called “Normal Life” is going to pull out of the station soon enough. No reason to rush things. High school is tough enough without fame.

#4 – A 14 year-old basketball player worth an offer will be a 17 year-old basketball player worth an offer – If you or your son is offered a scholarship to play basketball before he plays a minute of high school ball, as was the case with James Blackmon, he is going to enjoy a buyer’s market for his services. Lot’s of programs will covet him, and there is no way to know the best fit when he’s that young. This is a great time to teach a lesson in being judicious and circumspect.

#3 – Beware the momentary rush of popularity – It’s fun to be wanted. As a parent, it’s really fun to know that your son is talented enough to be fawned over by the coaches you see on TV, but that attention isn’t a validation; it’s salesmanship. If you want someone to treat you nicely and laugh at your jokes, go to a car dealer and pretend you’re interested in buying a sports car. You’ll see the same behavior, only the prize isn’t your child’s future, but a signature on the line which is dotted. Think of your son as a homecoming queen with a lot of attention as a potential prom date. He gets to choose one suitor to enjoy for that night. To what lengths might you go to ensure safety? Doing the same thing with a coach is the least you can do.

Talk to a few former players, hear the good and bad, and make an informed choice.

#2 – No reason to rush basketball being a job – When a kid plays ball in high school and on a summer team, the goal is to enjoy competing at a great game in the company of good friends. In college, the dynamic shifts. John Calipari isn’t paid over $5 million because he’s a hell of a nice guy. He makes that jack because he can assemble and motivate a team to win, and that means your kid is going to work to the outer limits of his will. That process doesn’t need to be hurried. Kids who don’t have the chance to be kids tend to wind up making strange decisions later in life. As evidence I offer every former child actor whose name is not Ron Howard.

#1 – Adults fawning over a 14 year-old for any reason is just creepy – People are drawn to the oddly talented, regardless of whether that talent is in chess, modeling, singing, basketball, or stacking cups symmetrically. When the talent is displayed by a young teen, and the acquisition of that talent can help the adults make big coin, the relationship needs to be closely managed by a caring parent who will look out for the best interest of the kid as a human being – not a commodity. That means sweeping the crowd for predators, and I’m not talking about the weirdos that Chris Matthews baits into homes on NBC’s “To Catch a Predator.” There is no just reason to accept a scholarship offer that is meaningless for four years.

Let a kid be a kid. Make sure he knows that being good at basketball is not what defines him, and shun all contact until he is a junior. That’s a good time for every kid to start assessing college choices.

And as contradictory to the above as this sounds, listen to nothing until a coach offers a scholarship. Until then, it’s all nonsense. College basketball is a business – a big business – and the players are pawns within it. Until a player signs the letter of intent, the power lies with the kid and family. Afterward, you belong to the coach.

Enjoy the power while you have it.

Indiana Basketball – James Blackmon Jr. Decommits, Citing “what other schools have to offer” as Reason

by Kent Sterling

I’m equally mystified why it’s a big deal when a 17 year-old changes his mind and why a coach would offer a scholarship to a 14 year-old.

When I was a senior in high school and found myself more popular than I ever should have been, I asked girls out because it was fun to hear them say yes. I had no idea whether the girl was a good person or someone I would enjoy spending time with, but the initial “Yes!” was kind of fun for a minute.

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Then the actual date came, we had nothing in common, and I couldn’t wait for the night to end. That phase of my life lasted three weeks.

Indiana Basketball seems to enjoy hearing a kid say yes, so Tom Crean asks as soon as he believes a kid will blossom into a decent player. The kids and their parents enjoy a coach at a program like Indiana asking, so they say yes.

High school intervenes, a kid changes, the parents become a little more savvy, and the happiness that came with the initial commitment evaporates for both sides.

There were dates I wanted to ask, “What the hell are we doing here? We are obviously ill-suited for even a movie together.” Clearly, either Crean decided that Blackmon was no longer a fit, or more likely given his comments, Blackmon has been presented with a better offer or environment for his services.

Blackmon told ESPN’s Dave Telep, “It took me a couple of days [to call],” Blackmon said. “[Crean] said that he wants to coach me. He told me to look around and that IU has to be my last official visit. He wants me at Indiana and he can get me to the next level, and I don’t doubt that. Nothing really happened, but since it’s such a big choice, I’m opening it up. I like IU. I told Coach Crean that I still want to be there, but I want to see what else is out there since I’ve been committed for so long.”

What he told Telep last is a little troubling, “It’s more that what other schools have to offer would have to really change my mind to take IU out of the picture.”

I’m not at all sure what the “what” is that Blackmon might be talking about. Usually, players and families want to talk about who and where, rather than “what.” It might have been a high school senior-to-be making a semantic mistake, but it’s a potentially important misstatement.

In the meantime, after having the class full less than three years ago with both Trey Lyles and Blackmon, IU is now 0-for-2, which might be a very good thing.

Crean is certainly prepared to fill a couple of spots after offering 18 seniors-to-be. He has offers out to players like Dante Exum, Goodluck Okonobo, and Trevon Bluiett, and now two can accept.

The offers to pre-high schoolers is an intriguing strategy because I can’t find anyone who can explain the good it does. Kids in the 2017 high school class have no inkling who is going to wind up in the class of 2016 or 2018, which means they don’t know behind whom they might be slotted. The quality and position of the people in the class in front will have a lot to do with how much playing time he might expect as a freshman.

It’s possible that Blackmon took a look at Yogi Ferrell and Stan Robinson, and wondered where his minutes would come from. It’s also possible that Blackmon will choose IU – as he is still interested in joining the program.

Any sweating by fans over the most recent decommitment is unwarranted. Crean loves recruiting, and will find two players ready to join the Hoosiers next August.

Indianapolis Colts – the Games Will Be Played on the Field by Andrew Luck, Not on a Spread Sheet

by Kent Sterling

Colts QB Andrew Luck doesn’t just play football, he enjoys it. Guys who use slide rules instead of the eyes to gauge football talent can’t account for that.

The first seven or eight times, I found the statistical evaluations of the 2012 Colts season to be interesting and entertaining. As a team with a -30 point differential, it seems a mathematical anomaly to win 11 games in a 16 game season as the Colts did in 2012. True enough.

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The Colts ranked near the bottom of the NFL in the most important statistic in football – turnover ratio.

And they won nine of ten games decided by seven of less points.

You would think the Colts solved the riddle of the Sphinx in earning a berth in the playoffs after reading the slide rule set’s evaluations.

The statisticians are saying what statisticians always say – that eventually performance and results will reflect one another, and that the Colts will revert to the norm (which would have been a 7.2-8.8 record.

That would be true if the Colts were a coin, and we were flipping it over and over again, but that’s not the way football works. Grown men hit each other, execute a plan, and try to move the ball up and down the field, while preventing their opponents from doing the same. That’s football.

Statistics do not transfer from one season the next any more than they do from one team to the next. By the time the Colts take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium against the Oakland Raiders, they will likely have 20 players who were not on the roster last year, plus the non-rookie version of Andrew Luck, who appears to be the kind of once per generation talent he was projected to be as the top overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft.

And what about Luck’s stats – he led the NFL in being hit an astonishing 122 times, according to Bill Barnwell at grantland.com. Aaron Rodgers was second with only 93. That is an enormous chasm. That kind of battering can’t be allowed to continue, but with Luck a season smarter, an offensive line reinforced through the acquisition of right tackle Gosder Cherilous, and a quicker tempo passing game designed by new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, Luck should be able to stay clean more often.

The signing of running back Ahmad Bradshaw should make the rushing offense more productive, if he’s healthy for long stretches, which will also help Luck in every area he was lacking last year.

Not only did Luck throw 18 picks last year, he led the NFL in dropped interceptions with 14, according to another cool piece by footballoutsiders.com that examines adjusted interceptions (accounting for drops, hail mary picks, etc…). Next on the list was Brandon Weeden with 10.

My projection for the Colts is more along the lines of looking at the 11-5 with such a bunch of garbage stats. With a reversal in every area prompted by the rookie to second year improvement of Luck and the addition of upgrades among free agents and draftees, the Colts can expect to show significantly better in the standings.

There were some forces at work in 2012 that led the Colts to a nine-game improvement over 2011, but the most important was the ability in late game situations for Luck to find a way to put points on the board. The seven fourth quarter comebacks weren’t magic – they were the result of a kid with extraordinary talent, intellect, leadership, and will to overcome adversity by calming his mind while others lost theirs.

That is a skill that defies Venn Diagrams, Pythagorean Theory, and logic. Luck has it in spades, and he will show the actuaries poking holes in both Luck and the Colts that statistics make for fun blogs, but have nothing to do with predictive results of a team led by Andrew Luck.

Barnwell picks the Colts to finish the 2013 campaign 8-8. That’s a solid logical number, but barring an injury to Luck (which would be catastrophic despite adding Matt Hasselbeck as Luck’s backup), the Colts will win 10 at worst, and as many as 13.

2013-2014 NBA Position Rankings – Top 10 Wings

by Ryan Sterling

With the point guard position taken care of it is time to move on to wing position. I believe basketball has evolved to the point where the shooting guard and the small forward positions are interchangeable. If you are a shooting guard who cannot play small forward or visa versa you are not valuable to your team and most likely are relegated to a bench role.

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These wings are some of the best athletes in the world. All of these players are either listed as SG or SF on their rosters even though some of them do and can play power forward (Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James). Let’s take a look at the rankings:

1 – LeBron James, SF

Do I really have to write anything or try to justify this ranking. Four-time MVP, back-to-back NBA titles and Finals MVP awards, 255 double-doubles, 36 triple doubles and 2 Olympic Gold Medals. If there is one player who has any chance to match Oscar Robertson’s triple-double average for an entire season, it is James.

He has the ability to completely take over a game in any aspect he chooses. Critics told him he could not shoot and what does he do. He shoots over 40% from three. Critics said his post game was unpolished. He went to work and developed an above-average post game. I say we tell him he cannot average 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 11 assists in a season. Let’s see if he can.

2 – Kevin Durant, SF

The only player in the league right now who has the raw ability to match James blow for blow is Durant. No one is more fun to watch play than Durant. Until this year he played with emotion held in check, but he started to show cracks in 2012-2013 receiving 12 technicals and getting thrown out of the first game of his career.

Durant has started to show an ability to get teammates involved in the game, upping his assist totals each of the last three years (2010-11 – 2.7 apg, 2011-12 – 3.5 apg, 2012-13 – 4.6 apg). He also notched all three of his triple-doubles last season. If Durant can continue to improve assist totals and show a complete game (career highs in both steals and blocks last year) he will be the player who will take the throne has the best player in the NBA from James.

3 – James Harden, SG

Just think how good the Thunder would be, go ahead think about it. The number two PG and the number two and three wings in the game. I am going to go out on a limb and say that would be the best backcourt in the game. Harden got his chance to be the main weapon for the first time last season and he did not disappoint. He averaged 25.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, and 5.8 apg all obviously career highs.

What some people will point to is the fact that while Harden’s usage rate went up, his overall efficiency was the worst of his career. But that is to be expected. The more a team relies on a player, the lower his efficiency. Look for Harden’s efficiency to improve with more experience being the first option, the addition of Dwight Howard, the continued improvement of Chandler Parsons, and the draft of PG Isaiah Canaan.

4 – Paul George, SF

Some people will not agree with this selection, but I think George is primed for a breakout season. Yes, he was an All-Star last year and had career highs across the board, but I think George has another All-NBA team written all over him this year. With Danny Granger out last season Frank Vogel threw George into the fire making him the go-to guy and George responded well. The bad news is George turned the ball over way to much at nearly three per game and that number went up to four per game in the playoffs. The good news is George is a year older and that only makes him 23. The youngest player on this list.

What separates George from the majority of the players on this list is his ability to go one-on-one with every player on this list. On the defensive end, George needs no help. He allows the Pacers to play straight up defense and gives Roy Hibbert the ability to play under the rim and not shade help to elite wings. Look for George’s efficiency to greatly improve with the experience gained last season and the expected return of Danny Granger in a support role.

5 – Carmelo Anthony, SF

Carmelo is a professional scorer and there is nothing wrong with that. He has the most complete offensive game of anyone on this list. He can shoot from three, he has the best post game of any wing, and has a mid-range game to keep defenders off balance. People unfairly criticize Anthony for his inefficiency, but his shooting numbers over his career are 45.6% from the field while shooting 33.4% from deep (his season-to-season numbers from three vary wildly).

His efficiency numbers in 2012-2013 were his best while being in New York, and second best of his career. He has the ability to take over games on the offensive side of the ball, and almost single-handedly willed the Knicks to force a game seven in the conference semis last year. Anthony has holes in his game, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, but he makes up for that with superior offensive output. The next step for Anthony is to cut down on his three attempts and get to the line with a little more consistency.

6 – Dwyane Wade, SG

Balky knees have dropped Wade from a player that would have been top three on this list before the start of last season to number six this season. He is a career 28 percent shooter from deep and if his knees cannot hold up this is definitely a serious problem for an aging Wade. This is a selection I might come to regret as the talent is still there to be a top three guy and Wade could have one or two more All-NBA first team years left in the tank. He still put up 21.2 ppg to go along with five apg and five rpg.

If Wade can improve to become a mid-thirties percentage three point shooter his career will extend a few more years. The picture I just cannot get out of head was watching a non-explosive Wade struggle in the playoffs. I will chalk that up to playing all summer on the Olympic team. With a full off-season to get healthy, we could see a rejuvenated Wade in the beginning of the season, but can he still bring it night in and night out for 82 games plus 20 or so in the postseason? Only time will tell.

7 – Paul Pierce, SF

Pierce has been on the downside of his prime for the past three years, but somehow has been able to hold it together. Let’s take a look at Pierce’s numbers since the last championship the Celtics won in 2008:

2008-09 ppg – 20.5 apg – 3.6 rpg – 5.6 Double doubles – 7
2009-10 ppg – 18.3 apg – 3.1 rpg – 4.4 DD – 1
2010-11 ppg – 18.9 apg – 3.3 rpg – 5.4 DD – 7
2011-12 ppg – 19.4 apg – 4.5 rpg – 5.2 DD – 6
2012-13 ppg – 18.6 apg – 4.8 rpg – 6.3 DD – 12

Pierce is seemingly defying age holding his scoring numbers steady while improving both his rebounding and assists the last five years. The twelve double-doubles were Pierce’s most since the ’05-’06 season. Pierce will turn 36 during this upcoming season, but his game is not about explosiveness or athleticism. He will be valuable as long he can still bury a 17 footer in a defender’s face and knock down open threes. Look for Pierce’s numbers to drop in the scoring department as he joins Joe Johnson and Deron Williams in New Jersey, but also look for his efficiency to improve as he will not be looked upon to score nearly as much.

8 – Rudy Gay, SF

This was a struggle as there are a group of guys who could go from 8-15 (really 9-15 once you see number 10) and there really is not much of a difference. I go with Gay because his ceiling is just a little higher than the others. He has all of the tools to be top five guy on this list and at one point most people would have had him higher on this list. Let’s look at Gay and a mystery player on this list from the 2012-13 season:

Gay ppg – 18.2 rpg – 6.1 apg – 2.7 fg% – .416 ft% – .814 spg – 1.5
Player #1 ppg – 17.4 rpg – 7.6 apg – 4.1 fg% – .419 ft% – .807 spg – 1.5

Player #1 would be the number four man on this list, Paul George. Gay is not far behind. He has everything required to an All-NBA selection he just needs to put it all together again. Before the Gay trade the Raptors were 17-30. After the trade they went 17-18. I think Toronto has a real shot to grab one of the lower seeds in the East and with Gay playing the type of basketball people expect from a man making nearly 18 million dollars, they can make some noise. The potential is there, the only question is can he live up to it again.

9 – Andre Iguodala, SG

I give Iguodala an edge on this list because he is a defensive stopper. Like Paul George, Iguodala is a player you can stick on an elite wing and not have to slide help over. He is quick enough to guard shooting guards and big enough to take on small forwards. Iguodala saw his numbers take a serious hit last year, but the Nuggets asked him to be someone he is not, a three point shooter. Only once in his career has Iguodala shot better than 36 percent and that was during his last year in Philadelphia What you should see from him this year are straight line drives and fast break jumpers.

With the space provided by sharp shooters Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson look for Iguodala to have much better numbers and to be far more efficient from the floor. The defense will always be there, but it is time for Iguodala to get back to what he does best on the offensive end.

10 – Kobe Bryant, SG

I might have to re-write this come November. If the rumors are true and Kobe will be ready for the start of the regular season he will be placed at number two on this list. A few years ago I was not a Kobe fan – even through the majority of this season I was not a Kobe fan. But when you rupture an achilles, knock down two free throws, and then walk off the floor you get my vote of approval (something I am sure Kobe would be very proud of).

Last season was Kobe’s most efficient year on the offensive side of the ball as he had a career high in assists and his best shooting year since the ‘08-’09 season. He has transformed his game much like Jordan did when age started to wear away at his athletic prowess becoming a jump shooter who has the ability to take you to the rim. There are very few players you can add to any roster and instantly make them a playoff team and Kobe is one of them. The only time the Lakers did not make the playoffs was in 2004-05 – the last year Kobe missed more than 10 games. As long as his achilles does not give him any issues look for Kobe to be Kobe.

Click here to read Ryan’s point guard rankings