Author Archives: Kent Sterling

Indianapolis Colts Philip Rivers appraisal not a referendum of the man, but the quarterback

Nobody better to talk to on a Zoom call than Philip Rivers. That doesn’t mean he’s going to go to a Super Bowl for the first time at age 40!

The debate over Philip Rivers as a potential starting quarterback got a little bit weird on my YouTube channel.  On today’s Breakfast with Kent, I said he can’t win a Super Bowl because he cannot run or throw deep, and hasn’t been to a Super Bowl in a 17-year career.

Commenters reply that I must dislike Rivers.  One who identifies as Lois Lane wrote, “He has played great ALL SEASON LONG. He played great in this playoff loss. He wasn’t the one who mismanaged time and time outs. He wasn’t the one who dropped 8 PASSES. He wasn’t the one who let Allen have 2 LONG drives in the game that chewed up clock. I get it, you DONT LIKE Rivers. That’s fine, like who you want, but please don’t give me any of this MANURE about Rivers not being able to get this team to the SB. Did Rivers have a perfect game? No he did not. Did he play very well and GIVE his team a chance to win, YES HE DID(mic drop).”

I try to avoid people who go off the rails with caps for emphasis, as “Lois” did EIGHT TIMES – one for every drop by a Colts receiver she laments.  She writes that I “DON’T LIKE Rivers.”  That couldn’t be farther from the truth.  I like what I know of him.  I also love my son and like several friends very much, but that doesn’t mean any of them should be the starting quarterback for the Colts.

From what I have been able to glean from weekly Zoom calls, Rivers is a GREAT guy who has earned the respect of his teammates.  If I knew him, I would undoubtedly like him.  He seems like a good guy, and I generally like people.  Assessing Rivers as a quarterback who cannot take a team to a Super Bowl is NOT a personal attack.  It’s a professional, dispassionate, and relatively simple act.  Rivers cannot run and his throws lack velocity.  He counters those absent attributes with pinpoint accuracy and decisive delivery to receivers.  That’s good enough to beat bad teams most of the time and good teams some of the time.

It is NOT good enough to go to a Super Bowl,  If it was good enough, Rivers would have already gone to a Super Bowl.  He hasn’t.

Here’s another comment from a guy named Mark Defeo that ascribes Rivers lack of postseason success to bad luck:

“So Rivers plays well enough to beat hottest team in league but your take is he can’t win a SB. First he played for one of the worst organization in NFL for his entire career. And the majority of his playoff loses is exactly what happened Saturday . Missed FG , DB fumbles game winning INT against Brady or they go to SB that year. Having to play on torn ACL while LT and Gates didn’t play. Saturday sums up his career just having bad luck not that he can’t win a SB.”

I have nothing but respect for Rivers stepping up to compete with a torn ACL, but to paint him as a 15-year starting quarterback victim of the Spanos regime and bad luck is silly.  Yes, the Spanos Family have been poor stewards of the Chargers, and there has been some misfortune that caused the Chargers to bow out.  But it doesn’t make Rivers capable of the kind of competitive advantage that Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield can create with their mobility and speed.

Yes, Frank Reich screwed up in several key moments Saturday.  So did Kemoko Turay jumping offsides on a 4th & 3 play late in the first half.  Rodrigo Blankenship doinking the right upright from 33-yards did not help.  Neither did Rivers failing to move the Colts into field goal range in the last 2 1/2 minutes.

This is not a referendum on Rivers’ hall of fame candidacy, his value to society, or his likability.  It’s about superior physical gifts that provide a serious advantage to opponents.

If Rivers ran for governor of Indiana or mayor of Indianapolis, I would probably vote for him.  As a quarterback for a football team with the goal of winning a Super Bowl – I pass (lower case).

Colts quarterback quandary – can’t win Super Bowl with Philip Rivers – might not make playoffs without him

The discussion of whether Philip Rivers should be back with the Colts will be moot if Rivers decides to hang it up.

The reason to move on from Philip Rivers as Colts quarterback has nothing to do with the bad plays he avoids, but the great plays he cannot make.  The lack of mistakes is not enough to win a championship.

The well-earned rap on Rivers when he left the Chargers to join the Colts was the frequency with which he threw the ball to opponents.  He exceeded expectations with the Colts for not throwing it to the other guys by lowering the interceptions total from 20 in 2019 to 11 in 2020, and the Colts won more games (11) with Rivers than anyone had a right to believe they could.

An 11-5 record put the Colts into the playoffs, and that was a solid regular season result, but assessing quarterback play in the AFC shows the Colts have a significant disadvantage in the playoffs even if Rivers plays clean.  That chasm was put into clear focus Saturday in Buffalo as Josh Allen‘s versatility was a significant reason the Bills beat the Colts.

The four starting quarterbacks on AFC teams that will play in the divisional round this weekend are Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield.  Combined, they ran for 134 first downs during the 2020 season (Jackson – 56, Allen – 38, Mahomes – 22, and Mayfield – 18).  Rivers ran for none.  In playoff games this weekend, Jackson ran 16 times for 136 yards and Allen ran 11 times for 54 yards.  Rivers did not run, which was good because he can’t.

In the film Finding Forrester, Sean Connery’s character gives a great piece of advice as a mentor to a high school student named William, “A key to a woman’s heart – is an unexpected gift at and unexpected time.”  Just as true is a similar adage, “The key to winning a playoff game is unexpected yards at a necessary time.”

Rivers is incapable of providing those yards, while Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, and Mayfield do it again and again.

Another thing Rivers is not capable of, if Saturday’s performance can be used as a guide, is moving the football into field goal range for a game tying kick with two-and-a-half minutes left on the clock and a single timeout in his pocket.  That isn’t all Rivers’ fault.  Frank Reich blew one of the timeouts with a useless replay challenge, and the other timeout seemed to result from the officials not resetting the play clock.

Still, the final play of the Colts last gasp 13-play, 39-yard drive was a Hail Mary Rivers launched from midfield that never reached the end zone.  Being able to throw a football 75 yards is not a prerequisite for NFL success, but Hail Marys that don’t cross the goal line are certainly doomed to fail.

The loss to the Bills doesn’t fall squarely on Rivers’ shoulders.  Blame is shared by Reich, Kemoko Turay for being drawn offsides as the Bills faced a crucial 4th and 3 late in the first half, and Rodrigo Blankenship knocking a 33-yard field goal into the right upright are easy and accurate targets.  Rivers didn’t really do anything wrong, but he isn’t capable of doing nearly as much right as Allen.

QBR is a nice approximator of a quarterback’s total value to an offense.  Unlike Passer Rating, it takes into account ability to run the ball.  The four QBs we discussed earlier have far superior QBRs to Rivers 62.7.  Mahomes – 82.9, Allen – 81.7, Jackson – 73.9, and Mayfield’s is 72.4.  All are in the NFL’s top 10.  Rivers is 18th, right between Kirk Cousins and Mitchell Trubisky.

In fact, seven of the eight remaining quarterbacks in the playoffs are in the top 10.  The only exception is the Rams’ Jared Goff, but he has the luxury of the NFL’s best defense mitigating the effect of his mediocrity on Rams.

Rivers is not to be blamed or held in lower regard because of his limitations.  He is who he is – a great guy who loves football and plays as well as he is capable.  That’s the damnable aspect of evaluating Rivers as a candidate for 2021 – his work in 2020 was to his potential.  Maybe he could shave a couple of interceptions from the 11 he threw this year, but overall he was as good as anyone had a right to expect.

The other very important piece of the puzzle for 2021 is – if not Rivers, then who?  Does Chris Ballard want to hand the keys to the offense to fourth round rookie Jacob Eason?  Probably not. What about signing yet another imperfect free agent?  The names Trubisky, Fitzpatrick, Dalton, and Newton give you goosebumps only if you cheer against the Colts.

Good is the enemy of great, but it is the enemy of sucking too!

At 39, Rivers has never been to a Super Bowl, and hasn’t made it to a conference championship since the day after rookie running back Jonathan Taylor‘s ninth birthday.  But at least the Colts know they can make the playoffs with Rivers slinging it awkwardly while rooted in the pocket.

Rivers is who he is – an old quarterback whose greatest assets are between his ears and within his chest.  The world might be a better place if that’s all it took for a quarterback to contend for a championship, but unique physical gifts are every bit as important.  It takes a strong arm to win, and unless you are Tom Brady, you better have some quick feet too.

Indiana Basketball – Moral victories stacking up for a fanbase that longs for more

Rob Phinisee was good last night, and so were his teammates. Indiana lost anyway.

Moral victories suck.

Indiana taking Wisconsin to two overtimes before succumbing to fatigue against a bunch of perpetual students in their mid-20s should be enough to sustain us as we continue to search for reasons to hope the Hoosiers are on the road to something more fruitful than battling for seventh in the Big 10.

Armaan Franklin missed the game with his sprained ankle, but Trayce Jackson-Davis stepped up big for the first 34 minutes of the game to give the Hoosiers a chance.  Before withering into fatigue-driven mediocrity, Jackson-Davis scored at will.  The future first team All-American did what he could for as long as he could, and if a foul had been called on his final drive to the basket at the end of regulation, we would be singing a different tune thins morning – but it wasn’t, so we aren’t.

Rob Phinisee and Al Durham also played well over the regulation length of a normal basketball game, and appeared to do everything they could for as long as they could.  Anthony Leal and Jerome Hunter balled out, made shots, and fought to the end.

Winning at Wisconsin is tough, and that’s the reason the Hoosiers have not enjoyed a happy flight home from Madison since Bob Knight was their coach and A.J. Guyton the point guard.  A win was there for the taking at the end of regulation and the first overtime, but IU couldn’t finish, so today we sing a familiar lament, “Oh, what might have been!”

It’s been a long time since Indiana fans celebrated what is rather than what was or what may be.  “Hey, look how close we got!” gets old.  So does, “If IU just keep improving, we have a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament!”  And, let’s not forget this oldie but goodie: “What is the buyout for (current coach’s name here)?”  More Indiana fans can recite the contractual status of their coach than the team’s record.

That’s Indiana Basketball in this utterly crappy decade (so far).  For God’s sake, there are Indiana fans who are pining on social for the halcyon days of Tom Crean – the preening, posing, and pacing leader of east coast recruits whose insanely complicated offense drove many fans nuts.  Hard to argue with two Big 10 championships when clearly Miller’s teams to this point haven’t been able to crack the upper half of conference standings.

But I’m right there as one who enjoyed watching last night as IU clawed its way to a six-point lead with six minutes left in the game.  Phinisee looked closer to what we believe his potential to be, and Leal seemed the kind of shooter Indiana desperately needs.  It’s easy this morning to see last night as a progression toward meaningful wins – instead of a feel-good loss that might not be held against Indiana by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee..

The sad part about what made Indiana fans happy last night is that it’s hard to imagine this team playing harder or shooting better than they did through 45-minutes before the wheels fell off in the second overtime.  If they can’t play harder or better, then last night represents the closest IU can get to playing to their potential.  That means IU was as good as they can get.

Indiana used to be the class of the Big 10 – an annual National Championship contender.  Everyone inside and outside the program would like for that to be the case again, but there is no yellow brick road leading there.  Maybe what we watched last night is the best that can be hoped for, or maybe Indiana has another gear.

At some point, Indiana has to start winning games like that again.  Becoming a group of satisfied losers does not become IU Basketball fans.

On paper the Bills are supposed to beat the Colts – but the Colts are men, not numbers!

The Colts love their celebrations – let’s hope they have one more of them that the Bills in Buffalo on Saturday.

Sane people who know anything about football are picking the Bills to beat the Colts Saturday.  Even die hard Colts fans understand the talent gap between the two teams.

Being right about the Colts inability to compete with the Bills Saturday afternoon will give me no joy.  If I’m wrong and somehow the Colts can beat the Bills, I’ll celebrate like hell because I not only like this team – I respect it.

Normally, when the media gets a peak behind the curtain of a professional sports franchise to see how the sausage is really made, the result is repulsion.  Arrogance permeates offices and the locker room.  Players are self-immersed divas, instead of team committed assets.  Coaches are insecure because, like most middle managers, they are well aware they are future former employees.  General managers obsess over how they are characterized because the media doesn’t understand them, yet they make no effort to be understood.

Because of that, it’s difficult to both cover a team and cheer for them.  Trying to understand what goes on behind closed doors is a professional responsibility, not a labor of love.  That’s the case covering the Colts too, except the unseemly underbelly has been tough to find at the Colts Complex.

The Colts are unique in many ways, not just as one of the 14 playoff teams who belief in their shot at punching their ticket to the Super Bowl.

I believe Chris Ballard is not just an effective general manager, but an honest human being who is trying to construct a culture, not just a talented roster.  Not only have I never written that about a franchise leader, I’ve never thought it.  I believe Ballard is trying to build a Super Bowl level franchise with components that drive each other and the team forward.  His Colts appear to be a grand experiment that might just reaffirm that character is an asset that brings Lombardi Trophies and championship rings, not just awards for citizenship.

Philip Rivers understands his limitations in mobility and conveying the ball with velocity but believes in his ability to overcome them.  Listening to him every week on the Zoom call with media has made me a fan.  He’s thoughtful, competitive, and even a little childlike in his passion for a silly game.  This is Rivers’ last best chance at playing in the Super Bowl – an experience he has yet to enjoy.

Darius Leonard is an angry rampaging beast on the field, but an accommodating, sincere, and generous man off it.  When we were allowed in the locker room throughout the weeks prior to games before COVID, Leonard was always available to speak honestly about himself and the team.  He would talk to a scrum and then oblige every one-on-one request.  He has a sizable chip on his shoulder, and it fuels him to perform well each week.  Leonard is impossible to dislike.

Even the radio crew is wonderful.  Matt Taylor and Rick Venturi are dedicated broadcasters, but better human beings.  Their sincerity and enthusiasm explode through the speakers during games.  I have worked with both, and they have earned their success by using the same tactics common to the Colts – generosity of spirit, honesty, and preparation.  They are likable on the radio because they are likable in life.

I could go on.  There are dozens of good people working and playing for the Colts, and it makes them very easy to side with in a game against a team I know only through watching them a few times on TV.  ESPN gives the Colts a 32.5% chance of beating the Bills, but that is better than 0%!

There are hundreds of great reasons to favor the Bills, beginning with their quarterback, reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Month Josh Allen.  Forgive me if I don’t share all the ways he is expected to shred Matt Eberflus’s defense.  And as far as Stefon Diggs superior year, I just don’t care.  Worrying about how to keep him in check is up to someone other than me.  My job is to evaluate how they succeed or fail, not to game plan for the game.

I’m going to watch on Saturday afternoon like the rest of you – with hope that over 55 minutes the Colts can get enough good breaks to be within one score.  Then, they can employ all that likability, earnestness, and diligence to steal one from the heavily-favored home team.

NCAA should move March Madness to Indy permanently for seven reasons, and COVID is not one of them

If no city hosts huge events better, why not trust Indianapolis to be the home of the entire NCAA Tourney every year?

Regardless of the need to play the NCAA Tournament in a bubblicious atmosphere due to COVID concerns, bringing the entire event to Indiana is a great move.

Scattered site hosting of sub-regionals, regionals, and the Final Four has always bee weird.  Indiana goes to Boise while Michigan State travels to Spokane and Gonzaga flies to Buffalo has always been screwy.  Who in Buffalo and Boise gives a damn about college basketball, and why are programs strewn all over the place where fans have to make difficult and expensive travel arrangements to follow their teams?

If the entire event is in one city, fans can get a jump on cheap fares for scarce flights months in advance.  And in Indiana, arenas are going to sell out regardless of who plays because people here treat college hoops like a major league sport – not some niche holding pen for future NBA talent.

It took COVID for the NCAA to see the logic in a single site tournament, but it shouldn’t take another pandemic for the big brains who run things there to understand that this is simply a better answer for an event that derives no benefit from flying people 3,000+ miles to play basketball.

Here are the top 10 reasons Indianapolis in a perfect permanent site for the entire NCAA Tournament:

7 – Fans at blue blood programs can book flights to Indy in December and save a bunch of cash.  With first round games being announced on Selection Sunday then played Thursday, getting a flight can be difficult and expensive.  Not if the entire tournament is in Indy, it won’t be!  This isn’t a fix specific to Indy, but an argument to put the whole thing someplace specific.

6 – In Indy, March Madness is a huge deal.  College Basketball is a major league sport in Indianapolis.  In other cities, it’s rear of the sports section filler.  People here revere opportunities to host regionals and Final Fours, treat participants with generosity and respect, and head downtown without a ticket just to be a part of the vibe.  Student-athletes deserve to be in the middle of crowd that appreciates them rather than in the middle of Chicago, New York, and L.A. where natives gawk and ask why tall men in sweatpants are walking down the street.

5 – World class facilities.  One of the conditions Indy needed to meet in its effort to host the entire 2021 tournament was provide great arenas and practice facilities within a tight proximity of downtown.  No problem!  Within six miles of Monument Circle in the middle of Indianapolis, Lucas Oil Stadium, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Hinkle Fieldhouse, and Indiana Farmer’s Coliseum are ready for teams and fans.  Granted the Coliseum only holds 6,500 fans, but that’s enough for a regional if not a regional final.

4 – NCAA saves on travel and hotel rooms.  Instead of flying big wigs like NCAA president Tom Emmert to major cities to stay in expensive hotel suites, the NCAA staff can stay in their homes, commute to events, and funnel the savings to universities where the money can be spent on college students.  That’s supposed to be the point, right?

3 – Easy in, easy out.  Go ahead, fly to Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, New York’s La Guardia, or LAX.  Then see if you can get to your hotel in less time than it took you to fly there.  Indy’s downtown hotels are exactly 15 minutes from the airport – always – and cab/uber fare is about $10.  Bob Knight’s famous quote about basketball (and life) is “Don’t complicate winning.”  OK.  How about “Don’t complicate travel.”  Indy is as uncomplicated as it gets.

2 – Indy is a perfect walking town.  To get from many hotels to Lucas Oil Stadium, fans never need to walk outdoors.  All hotels are a five minute walk from almost anywhere fans, players, media, and coaches might want to go, including Bankers Life Fieldhouse and Lucas Oil Stadium.  Everything is easy in Indy – and easy equals inexpensive.

1 – No city hosts a huge event as well as Indianapolis.  From the Super Bowl to the Final Four to the Indy 500 (the largest single day sporting event in the history of the world with more than 300,000 attendees), Indy has figured out how to wrangle transit, feed, house, and smile at tens of thousands of fans, and deploy volunteers to make it easy.  Visitors are made to feel at home here rather than chastised and insulted as happens in other places where I have attended Final Fours (Seattle was downright hostile).

If Indy does it best – and we do – we should be allowed do it always!