Author Archives: Kent Sterling

In the wake of Kobe Bryant’s death and Victor Oladipo’s return, the Super Bowl doesn’t seem important

Moments like this between Kobe and Gigi Bryant interest us more than the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl is three days away, and I’m thinking about other things. I haven’t devoted a moment of attention to what is a fascinating matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

This is unusual for me. Pouring over video and analytics to try to predict a Super Bowl winner is usually great fun, but enjoying that frivolity has been difficult this year. Maybe part of it is that quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo appear likable. Maybe it’s the lack of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick earning their way into another championship game. Who doesn’t love rooting against two guys Brady and Belichick?

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But I think the distraction is in our priorities. Processing the sudden death of Kobe Bryant is much more important to many. It is continuing to dominate our thoughts. I’m usually pretty quick to move on from the death of someone I did not know, but this is unique and I’ve been slow to turn the page.

Bryant and eight others were killed Sunday morning when a helicopter, dense fog, and hillside conspired to take them. These tragedies are not so unusual they should consume us, but this was different because of the remarkable evolution of Bryant from self-immersed young athlete to devoted and mature father and leader.

His loss has profoundly affected people beyond the normal response – a few hours of sadness and empathy as we imagine ourselves in the shoes of the victims or their families. Bryant’s death has been different because by all accounts he became the person many aspire to be. The pictures of Bryant and his daughter Gigi – also lost in the crash – talking and laughing while watching basketball games embody memories of the moments parents and children covet.

It seems ridiculous to stop thinking about mortality, Bryant’s evolution, and being robbed of his presence and positive example to accommodate a breakdown of the 49ers running game against a balky Chiefs rush defense and Patrick Mahomes magical abilities to extend plays and attack openings with his arm and feet.

Locally, the Super Bowl also pales in importance to Victor Oladipo’s return to the Pacers after his year long recovery from a torn quadriceps tendon. That story is not just about the joy of seeing Oladipo hit a three-pointer with :09 left in last night’s game to force overtime against the Bulls; it’s about a special human being overcoming adversity and self-doubt to emerge whole again.

Andy Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan. Old school guy without a championship against the 41-year-old pup. Maybe without focusing on Bryant’s death and Oladipo’s recovery, that sidebar would be worth pondering for a few minutes. Not today though.

This week is about the Bryant Family, examining loss, finding strength, and deciding what we might learn from all of it to become better people.

The result of a football game pales in comparison. And rightly so. We’ll get back to frivolous things eventually, but not yet.

Victor Oladipo returns for the Pacers with his quad strong and confidence intact

Victor Oladipo will be welcomed tonight by roars from thousands of fans, but the noise he will hear loudest is his own confident voice.

There has always been more to Pacers guard Victor Oladipo than outrageous verticality, cat-like quickness, and contagious energy.

He’s been a wise and confident young man since showing up as a lightly recruited freshman at Indiana University. I interviewed Oladipo when he got to campus, and I felt like he might have been the most likable and employable 18-year-old I had ever met. He was sure of himself without being cocky and very comfortable as the focus of attention.

Overcoming the adversity of being undervalued as a DeMatha High School senior was nothing new to him. He was lightly thought of as a sophomore too – rarely getting any varsity playing time.

Oladipo’s answer then was to believe his hard work would yield a positive result, and that it was his vision of playing at the highest level would become reality he his belief and work ethic remained unshakable. That lesson has served Oladipo well as he spent the last year rehabbing his rare quad tendon tear. It’s so rare that there is no playbook for an elite athlete regaining his physical gifts.

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When an athlete tears an ACL, doctors and trainers can plot the course of rehab because so many have suffered and recovered from the same injury. No NBA player under 30 has ever torn his quad tendon, so no one had any notion of the prognosis, timeline or success of the rehab. Oladipo is the first of his kind.

In rehab, Oladipo employed the same tools to overcome adversity he used at DeMatha, Indiana and with the Orlando Magic as a second overall pick who didn’t immediately live up to expectations. He also lessons learned through watching and emulating the late Kobe Bryant,

“When I was in Orlando, it wasn’t easy for me,” Oladipo said yesterday. “I heard it all from being a bust to not being good enough to being benched to coming off the bench to everything. My mentor used to tell me about Kobe the entire time. It was Kobe, Kobe, Kobe, Kobe, Kobe.

“I used to watch Kobe videos. Sometimes if you look back at my old interviews, you’ll see stuff that Kobe says. That’s where I get it from. ‘Even keel.’ ‘Not getting too high not getting too low.’ That’s Kobe. ‘I don’t fathom failure.’ ‘Failure isn’t real.’ That’s Kobe,” Oladipo said.

So tonight, Oladipo will return to the same floor where he proudly announced, “This is my city!” after electrifying the crowd with a game winner early in his first season with the Pacers. Many of the same fans will be there hoping the magic can return.

Fans’ expectations will be high tonight, but likely dwarfed by Oladipo’s own. He said yesterday he wants to get 40, which is absurd, but no more so than anything else Oladipo has accomplished. Tonight though isn’t about points scored, but how he and the Pacers can take a step forward as Oladipo’s return interrupts an already successful mojo. Oladipo is confident he will be a force for good on a team with designs on big results this postseason.

That’s always been the way it’s been with Oladipo. His confidence has always overcome the doubters who believed he would fail in high school, then Indiana, with the Magic, Thunder, and Pacers.

Believing in himself prepared Oladipo to excel at each level of basketball he’s played, and it gave him the strength he needed to embrace the lonely challenges unique to a year-long rehab.

Tonight will be another step in that rehab – work that will continue, according to Oladipo, until his playing career ends. But it won’t be lonely, as teammates and fans will be right there with him the rest of the way.

This is just the next chapter in an already fascinating life and career.

Here’s the text of Victor Oladipo’s comments about the death of his role model Kobe Bryant

Pacers guard Victor Oladip[o will return to the court tomorrow night, so he spoke to the media today. Among the questions about expectations, physical condition, and what he learned during his time rehabbing his surgically repaired quad tendon, he was asked about Kobe Bryant’s death.

His solemn and thoughtful response is worth sharing in its entirety:

I was in the gym when I found out. I got a call saying he had passed away, but the only place that had it was TMZ Instagram, so at first I thought it was lying. I thought it was joke, and then literally like 15 minutes later it was everywhere. And then slowly but surely we found out who was on the helicopter with him – Gigi, obviously, and the rest of the people. It was just sad, honestly.

I remember telling my mom I’m jealous, and she asked “Why are you jealous?” Because I feel like I didn’t get my special moment with Kobe. I had a relationship with him. I talked to him a few times on the phone, texted with him a few times, but I never got to meet him in person. I never got to play against him; I never got to play with him. I never got to work out with him, and I felt like that was in the near future. I was kind of tough for me because I wanted that moment.

When I was in Orlando, it wasn’t easy for me. I heard it all from being a bust, to not being good enough, to being benched, to coming off the bench, to everything. My mentor used to tell me about Kobe the entire time. It was Kobe, Kobe, Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. I used to watch Kobe videos. Sometimes if you look back at my old interviews, you’ll see stuff that Kobe says. That’s where I get it from. “Even keel.” “Not getting too high not getting too low.” That’s Kobe. “I don’t fathom failure” “Failure isn’t real.” That’s Kobe.

It was a tough day for me – it was a tough day for the world in general. I wrote on my Instagram that the true definition of his greatness is that he impacted people that didn’t even know him. That’s greatness to me. When you can impact someone’s life in a positive way, and they don’t even know you? You’ve never met them before, but you still feel like that was your brother; that was your father that passed away?

Words can’t really describe. He’s in a class of his own.

I just pray for his family, and pray for his wife – his daughters that are still here. Pray for the families of the victims that were lost as well. It’s like a nightmare. It hasn’t really even sunk in yet because I don’t want to believe it.

Everyone who knows me knows that God is everything to me. I wouldn’t be without where I am without my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. I never question Him, but they are times when it’s like “Dang, I just don’t understand it.” But you just have to trust it, and it’s the toughest thing to do because we trust it when things are going good. We all trust it when things are going good, but it’s in the tough times when we kind of get shaky. We’re only human, and He understands that. But it’s just a tough pill to swallow, man.

We all just have to have the Mamba Mentality. Whatever it is that we do – just have that mentality because that’s a real thing. Attack everyday like that guy attacked it. If you’re not successful – if you don’t accomplish what you want to accomplish, at least you know you put everything you have into it.

His legacy will live on forever. He doesn’t have to be here for people to understand that.

Chicago Cubs will protect fans by extending nets – which should be unnecessary

Is it ultimately a good thing to protect people too foolish to protect themselves?

Sometimes, it is decided that people need to be saved from their own inability to protect themselves.

Such is the case at Wrigley Field where the Cubs will string protective netting beyond where the old bullpens used to be because people are seemingly incapable of shielding themselves from foul balls.

According to a study by ESPN’s Outside the Lines, 510 fans required assistance after being hit by foul balls at Wrigley Field from 2015-2019. That’s a little bit over one injury per game because fans were looking at their smart phones, talking to each other, or otherwise distracted from the infield action.

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There is also the chance that young children were hit because parents prioritized sitting close to the field over the desire to protect their kids. Maybe adults unwisely dropped the kids in seats closer to the batter than they were so it was difficult to catch or deflect foul balls before they struck the youngsters.

Whatever the case, it seems personal responsibility is taking a holiday at Wrigley and other major league ballparks.

I have no problem with netting behind the plate – or even extending it to the dugouts. I’m a fairly adroit former ballplayer, and I’ve nearly been drilled on a number of occasions while sitting in the first couple of rows at Wrigley and Riverfront Stadium. I’m glad I wasn’t hit, but it would never occur to me that it was someone else’s fault had I been hit.

That’s how our society has evolved – responsibility always lies elsewhere. Nothing is our own fault anymore.

On the many afternoons my son and I spent at Wrigley before he was old enough to fend off foul balls for himself, we sat in the upper deck, way down the line, or the bleachers, and I always sat in the seat toward home plate so I could easily intercept the ball before it reached him.

I actually caught a foul ball during batting practice prior to a Cubs vs. Mets game while two-year-old Ryan was perched on my shoulders. Utilityman Tim Teufel curled a line drive around the end of the cage toward the Cubs bullpen. We were roughly where Steve Bartman sat during that fateful Game Six in 2003, and I reached over the brick wall to snag the ball. Ryan was parallel to the ground when I caught it, but I had a hold of his ankles, so all’s well that ended well.

Had the ball hopped up and hit Ryan in the head, I would still feel terrible about it. But I wouldn’t have blamed the Cubs for allowing me to put Ryan in a position to be struck. That would have been 100% on me.

The point is that people need to accept responsibility for their own stupidity once in a while, or we will assume that nothing bad is our own fault.

Major League Baseball and the Cubs are making it a little tougher for life to hold us accountable for being a dope. The result will be roughly 500 fewer bruises and breaks over the next five years, and a fanbase who sees their security as someone else’s concern.

Not sure whether society wins in that bargain.

Peyton Ramsey enters the transfer portal and will be immediately eligible to play elsewhere immediately

Peyton Ramsey has entered his name in the NCAA’s Transfer Portal.

The quarterback room at Indiana University potentially got a little less crowded today.

Incumbent IU starting quarterback Peyton Ramsey has entered his name in the NCAA’s transfer portal for the purpose of finding a new home for the 2020 season.

If Ramsey chooses to leave Indiana for a program he perceives to a better fit, he will be eligible to compete immediately as a grad-eligible senior.

With Ramsey as the starter for the majority of games during the 2019 season, the Hoosiers enjoyed an 8-5 season that ended with a trip to a Florida bowl for the first time in program history.

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Ramsey is currently fourth in all-time passing yards at IU, just 1,298 yards behind career leader Nate Sudfeld.

Ramsey lost his position as starter to Michael Penix prior to the season opener, but because of a shoulder injury to Penix, Ramsey found his way back into the starter’s role, where he excelled.

Whatever the reason for Ramsey’s decision, the NCAA rules allowing Ramsey to play immediately is a very positive thing. If an athlete can graduate in just three years, what would the point be of forcing him to sit for a year at another institution while awaiting his eligibility to re-engage.

Whether Ramsey’s decision to enter the portal is a repudiation of coach Tom Allen’s leadership or a simple decision to seek a new home where he is guaranteed a starter’s job we’ll never know. Ramsey is far too classy to air his grievances in the media.

Whatever his motives, if Ramsey leaves, he will avoid another protracted battle with Penix for the IU gig. If he had returned to IU and Penix remained healthy, his senior year after three as the starter may have been spent on the bench.

Kobe Bryant’s death mourned in a variety of ways, and none are wrong – let’s take it easy on each other

There are almost as many ways to mourn as there are mourners. Some openly weep for a stranger. Others remain stoic for loved ones. Neither are right or wrong.

Kobe Bryant’s unexpected death in a helicopter crash yesterday at the age of 41, along with eight others including Bryant’s daughter, has elicited a variety of reactions on social media. Many express tearful empathy for the families involved. Some report that they never met Bryant and feel no more sense of loss than they feel for non-famous folks taken from us without fanfare.

We need to work to accommodate those of us who are imperfect, which means everyone. I’ll give you an example. It took me six weeks to cry about my father’s death, but when the Cubs won the 2016 NLCS against the Dodgers, I cried like a baby in an Indianapolis bar for 20 minutes. I mean I flat out wept with my head on the bar because the Cubs were going to the World Series for the first time in 71 years.

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Now my love for Dad is so intertwined with my love for the Cubs that it’s likely the tears were as much for him as the Cubs. At least that’s my hope.

The point is that we are all screwed up in some way in terms of how we process death, and there should be an allowance for unique behavior.

Mockery and insensitivity continues to abound as each camp responds to tweets and Facebook posts expressing extreme indifference or entrenched empathy.

Some have a faculty for feeling the pain of others – transporting themselves into their shoes to experience emotional pain. Others have a talent for viewing the world through a very pragmatic lens. They see death as a fact of life that requires no mourning because it is expected for us all. Many go so far as to demand their own lives not be celebrated by a formal funeral or visitation.

Again, neither is right or wrong. How we view our demise, or someone else’s, is deep-rooted in our psyche.

Those who weep for Kobe and his daughter are perfectly justified for doing it. Many are expressing heartfelt messages to Kobe’s wife Vanessa and those close to others who perished in the crash. That doesn’t make them heroes or villains.

Others wonder why strangers to Kobe and the Bryants cry for them. When pragmatists heard the news of the crash, they likely nodded, said “Well, that’s something,” and moved on with what they were doing. That neither makes them wise nor assholes.

We’re just people, and how we deal with death is extremely personal. The correct answer for how we should mourn does not exist. There is no rule book, and so there can be no fouls.

Kobe Bryant died yesterday – too soon. His daughter Gigi died far too soon. So did the other seven people in the helicopter. It’s tragic – as are all deaths that interrupt the arc of an unfinished life.

I have no wisdom to share about how you should process this loss, but I do want us to lay off each other as judgments are made against those who weep for a stranger and also those who have no such emotional compulsion.

Social media allows for venting against those with whom we disagree. In fact, sometimes it seem to be encouraged. We should deny the impulse to rage against each other for feeling as we do.

After all, as we were reminded yesterday, we are here for a short time. Why make the trip less pleasant for one another?

Indiana might end the season a better team because of mistakes that led to yesterday’s loss

Indiana lost yesterday, and that’s all fans will remember – the 77-76 loss to Maryland. Moral victories, after all, don’t earn bids to the NCAA Tournament.

But the Hoosiers didn’t simply lose at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, they lost while playing better than they had all season. The offense moved the ball inside and then kicked it out for open threes. The defense, a little bit late to recover on Maryland shooters for the first 15-minutes, tightened the screws in the second half and took over the game.

Down by 14, Indiana stuck with the plan, and battled back to take an eight-point lead. The box score is filled with the stats of a winner – 22 assists, 55.3% from the field, and 44.7% from 3s. As a result of the loss, IU moved up a notch in the Ken Pom ratings.

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Maryland was the #17 team in America, and Indiana led by six with less than 90-seconds left in the game. The Hoosiers wouldn’t score another point – victims of a turnover and two missed shots. Trayce Jackson-Davis’s final shot with three seconds left from inside of five feet was especially galling because he makes that shot far more often than he misses.

But that miss was just the final misstep, not the only failure. Rob Phinisee’s missed front end of a one-and-one opportunity while up seven with 5:31 left was huge. Devonte Green’s blown lob pass in the second half seemed innocuous at the time, but cost Indiana a chance to build the lead. Up seven with 3:52 left, Al Durham fired from deep with 23-seconds left on the shot clock.

The point isn’t to specifically point at IU players who screwed up and caused a win to become a loss right before their very eyes. It’s to show that basketball is a funny game that can be brutal in the way it penalizes indifference to precision and discipline. Lose focus for a possession and the penance is blowing a winnable game.

Possession of the basketball needs to be treasured. All that tedious work on free throws is rewarded while the decision not to shoot another 100 every day is punished. Lessons leading to success become habits through failure. The ability to close games as a unit comes from disciplined execution. Indiana was held accountable for failures yesterday, and that might be exactly what they need to succeed over the final 11 games of this wobbly season.

The Big 10 is tight enough to reward the team that executes best during the final two minutes. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics project that the five games Indiana should win over the next six weeks will be decided by a total of 12 points. The six games IU is scheduled to lose will be decided by an average of five points. Close games are won by – repeat with me – the team making the fewer mistakes!

Adversity of a hell of a teacher in sports. Indiana got a nice dose yesterday in a game they should have won but didn’t. If the Hoosiers have any chance to reach their potential, each player looked in the mirror last night and berated themselves for their error that would have changed the game.

College is meant to be a place of learning, and if Indiana properly processes the information from yesterday, the lessons might help them win games they they might have lost had Jackson-Davis’s shot fallen, Phinisee made the front end, Green not tried to make the flashy play, Hunter took better care of the ball or Durham been more patient.

Basketball is a funny game that way. Sometimes failure brings future success and success brings future failure.

Big 10 Basketball is a crapshoot, so let’s shoot craps to determine where Indiana and Purdue finish!

Joey Brunk was good last night. Can the Hoosiers find their way into a first place tie this Sunday?

Indiana earned a fascinating win against Michigan State last night at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall with connected defense when it mattered and a couple of timely baskets by Joey Brunk and Armaan Franklin.

The win lifted IU’s Big 10 record to 5-3 and dropped the Spartans into a first place tie with Illinois at 6-2.

Wait. What? Indiana is one game out of first place in the Big 10? That’s right. With a home game this Sunday against Maryland, the Hoosiers could be playing for a share of the Big 10 lead almost halfway through the conference schedule.

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Indiana isn’t alone one game behind. They are tied with Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers and Wisconsin. Teams that were expected to contend for the conference title – like Purdue, Michigan and Ohio State languish near the bottom of the standings.

It’s early, way too early, to write off the Buckeyes, Boilermakers and Wolverines, nor anoint Indiana, Illinois and Rutgers as legitimate threats to win the a regular season title. But there is no doubt that excepting Nebraska and Northwestern, the Big 10 is filled with teams than could claw their way to the top.

The Big 10 used to reward four loss teams with a title. 14-4 would likely get it done. This year, the winner(s) could wind up with six blemishes. Six! That’s straight-up unprecedented bananas.

No one looks at Indiana as a potential champion this season, but you know what, why not? Why can’t IU beat a very young Maryland team Sunday afternoon? And if they can beat Maryland, why can’t they find a way to steal a couple of road wins at Penn State and Ohio State. Hell, Minnesota is historically terrible away from The Barn but found a way to win in Columbus last night. The Hoosiers can’t?

Then Indiana has two home games against Purdue and Iowa. Okay, it’s a stretch to expect a team without a backup point guard that shoots free throws like they’re blind to roll through a series of wins over teams who are at least their equal, but with every win the immediate future gets a little bit brighter.

Most sane Indiana fans have their fingers crossed for 10 Big 10 wins and a trip to back to the NCAA Tourney for the first time since 2016. Anything beyond that is a huge bonus, but optimism is starting to creep into IU fans’ psyche in a way unfelt in a few years.

It could all go in the crapper very quickly for Indiana if the Hoosiers start stacking losses while Michigan and Purdue rebound to win in the measure expected before they ran into tough stretches recently.

Unpredictability of the Big 10 has been IU’s best friend through eight games, and that might continue – or it could either become their worst enemy. Who the hell knows? They could get run out of Assembly Sunday, or they could leave the court 6-3.

A win coupled with losses by Illinois at Michigan and Michigan State at Minnesota, would vault the Hoosiers into a first place tie.

It’s all so screwy, trying to predict outcomes of individual games is virtually impossible, so projecting an order of finish come March 8th is a total crap shoot – so let’s shoot craps!

We’ll eliminate Northwestern and Nebraska, but include the other 12. We’ll roll two giant wooden dice for each of the top 12 teams in their current order from first to 12th. A seven sets the team in the highest spot available. For example, Michigan State’s roll comes first. A seven would place them first. Anything else, they roll again after all other teams have their turn.

And here we go!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubtxcz1UmjE

The complete order of finish of the top 12 was determined off camera and here it is!

Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Minnesota
Iowa
Michigan
Rutgers
Ohio State

A lot of chaos would have to transpire for this to come to pass, but do you want to bet against it?

IU Football coach Tom Allen shares narrow-minded and sloppily crafted moral advice

Indiana University football coach Tom Allen tweeted the image to the left on Sunday, and I don’t agree with a word of it.

Many responded to the comment I attached to a retweet of Allen’s message with indictments of our soft society and calls for people to read the right books, listen to the right music, and spend time with the right people, as Allen suggested.

Those concepts bother me.

Who among us is in charge of determining what book’s message is right and which songs are wrong? What person can judge our character as a product of whose words we read and which music we listen to? And, who determines which people are right and wrong for us to “hang out” with?

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By claiming we are the products of the books we read, Allen is saying there are good books for us and bad books for us. Same with music and people. That ideology is just a few short steps from granting license to people or governments to ban – or burn – books and music and people.

I assume Allen just put that out there as an ill-conceived effort to ask people to weigh carefully their choices, but instead he clumsily stomped onto a slippery slope that dead-ends at censorship.

As a highly paid representative of a university where minds are encouraged to expand, it’s odd to read that Allen believes in some books and music being a corrupting influence.

You can read virtually every word Hunter S. Thompson wrote without becoming a gun toting, whiskey swilling, political cynic. You can read books by basketball genius Phil Jackson and not become a Buddhist, or listen to Tupac Shakur and not embrace Thug Life. Millions laughed at Bill Cosby and watched the films produced by Harvey Weinstein, but no one raped women as a result. You listen to Barry White yet strike out with the ladies. You might play Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto but abhor violence.

People should try to understand life from a variety of perspectives. We should learn from those unlike us rather than turn our backs because they don’t share our beliefs. We should empathize rather than reject as dangerous those who are different. That can be done, ironically, through reading, listening and hanging out.

Literature and music are among arts created to engage and outrage. Discouraging consumption of it is narrow-minded and can extend as far as xenophobia.

Again, I doubt Allen was advocating a society where cultural choices are mandated by the state. I don’t think it was that deep. He probably lays his head down every night after saying a prayer for the safety and good choices of his family, players and coaches.

Caring about those you lead is important, and his extreme version of caring was likely the chief reason he was tabbed by Fred Glass as the successor to Kevin Wilson. Caring deeply about people is one of the chief attributes of a great leader.

Leaders like Allen need to be confident in their convictions. But just as with all the vices he decries, piety is best embraced and delivered in moderation.

Indiana needs to stack home wins, including tonight, to get back to the NCAA Tourney #iubb

Archie points the way to the road his Hoosiers will need to take to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana’s quest for 10 Big 10 wins gets very serious tonight at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall against the #11 Michigan State Spartans.

If the Hoosiers get a win, all of a sudden they are 5-3 in conference play and halfway to the magic number of 10 wins with a gauntlet of tough games ahead at home and on the road.

As is always the case, players and coaches are focused on only the next game – or tonight’s game – so they resist the urge to glance down the schedule to see the following 12 games that will determine both the present and future of the program trying desperately to find its footing under Archie Miller.

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You and I don’t need to be quite so laser-focused upon the now, so let’s indulge ourselves in the silly process of trying to cobble together another six wins before over a month before some of the games will be played.

Indiana beat Michigan State twice last season, outscoring the Spartans by a total of one point in regulation. Can that run of good fortune continue tonight? Looking back at last season’s wins, IU benefitted from almost unbelievable good luck in the OT win in East Lansing by hitting 10-20 from beyond the arc while Michigan State missed an astounding 14-22 from the line. When IU won 63-62 at Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers hit nine 3s and committed only eight turnovers. They also assisted on an average of 17.5 of their baskets in those games.

To paraphrase Myra Fleenor’s mom in Hoosiers, the sun don’t shine on the same dog’s ass every day, but IU’s ass was warmed greatly by that sun against Michigan State last season. They will need some more good fortune to beat Sparty tonight. I believe Indiana gets lucky tonight in a coin-flip game at raucous Assembly Hall. Indiana wins to run its Big 10 record to 5-3.

Maryland is 1-4 this season on the road with its only win coming against lowly Northwestern. The Terps are one of two teams in the Big 10 younger than Indiana, so the hope will be they continue to struggle away from College Park. Despite Maryland’s #17 ranking and senior leader Anthony Cowan Jr. at PG, IU can win this game without getting lucky. Indiana wins and is now 6-3!

Then Indiana goes on the road against Penn State and Ohio State. I cannot in good conscience pick Indiana as a likely winner against either. Ken Pom calculates the Hoosiers chance of winning these games at 31% and 24%. Seems about right in a conference where road wins are tough to come by. With two losses, IU’s Big 10 record falls to 6-5.

IU returns home following a week off to battle Purdue and Iowa. The Boilers have a tough time scoring on the road. As a result, their only road win came against Ohio. Not Ohio State, but Ohio from the MAC. With a full week to prepare, I like IU to beat Purdue. Iowa is a different animal away from Iowa City with a 3-2 record featuring wins against Northwestern, Syracuse and Iowa State. One of the losses came against Nebraska, who Indiana beat at their place. Luka Garza kid is a beast who doesn’t give a damn where he’s playing. I think Indiana splits to run its record to 7-6.

Another tough two-game road stretch comes at Ann Arbor and the Twin Cities against Michigan and Minnesota. Let’s start with the second one, which is easier. As is often the case, the Golden Gophers are really good at home (9-1) and awful on the road (0-6). Picking Indiana to go to the Barn and steal a win is like hitting an 18 in Blackjack – once in a while it works, but it’s foolish as hell. Michigan is a different animal. On paper, IU should be an underdog, but the Wolverines have lost four of their last five. By the time we get to February 16th, they will either have righted the ship or cratered. I’ll be a realist and pick IU to lose both, but the Michigan game could provide an upset win to counter an unexpected loss – Big 10 record falls to 7-8.

Indiana returns home for its only home game right in the middle of a stretch with a pair of road games both prior and after. If Indiana can’t beat Penn State at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, the resume’ takes a significant hit. Indiana wins – 8-8.

The next four games will determine whether IU ends its season in the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. The road games come first at Purdue and Illinois. After watching Illinois throttle Purdue at Mackey, it’s hard for me to foresee enough good things happening in Champaign for the Hoosiers to overcome Kofi Cockburn and the Fighting Illini. On the other hand, Purdue has a tough time scoring, but believe Purdue is going to come to fighting against IU in front of an insanely hyped Mackey crowd. IU loses both to be 8-10.

Indiana is going to have to win the last two at home to get to 10-10, and they will. We’ve already chronicled Minnesota’s troubles away from the Barn. IU gets that win. That leaves the final game against Wisconsin as the win IU HAS to get. Wisconsin has road wins against Penn State, Ohio State and Tennessee, but they won’t get the win on IU’s Senior Day. Winning out gets IU to 10-10.

The challenge in Indiana’s remaining schedule is if they lose any of the games I project as a win, they will need to make it up by winning a game reasonable people would project as losses. How many of those are potential flips? Michigan and maybe Purdue.

If IU goes 9-11, they will likely need two wins in Indy at the Big 10 Tournament. Given the Hoosiers history in that event, it’s best to get to 10-10 during the regular season to ensure being on the right side of the bubble.

What a fun six weeks this will be!