by Kent Sterling
Roy Hibbert might be frustrated today, the as the wins mount in the playoffs, that smile will return.
National NBA pundits have to write something, and speculation about the reasons for the devolution of the Indiana Pacers makes for good copy.
The Pacers were riding high on January 20th with an NBA best 33-7, enjoying appearances on national talk shows, and leading Sportscenter with their feel good story of a star-free team committed to collective excellence.
Then things started to unravel, and frustration built. That gaudy 66-win pace has now been adjusted down to 57, and the media is slinging handfuls of manure at a wall to see what sticks. They ask questions that lead the previously honest and happy-go-lucky Pacers to publicly vent.
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The spotlight is fun when life is good and everyone is in love with you, but the attention becomes uncomfortable because the media is in business to cover (if not create) the arc of teams. The triumphs and debacles of people and teams are interesting in equal measure, and are covered with similar zeal.
Narratives are the name of the game in media, and the Pacers rise, fall, and whatever comes next will drive consumption. Either the Pacers will find redemption or continue their downward spiral into an abyss of self-loathing and ultimate disappointment.
Reporters and talk hosts will continue to ask about whether the Danny Granger trade, Andrew Bynum signing, Paul George appearance on the Jimmy Kimmel Show, Lance Stephenson all-star snub, Frank Vogel’s endless positivity, Larry Bird’s impatience, Boomer’s inability to convert the occasional dunk off the mini-tramp at the end of the third quarter, or front office exec Eddie White’s colorful attire and aversion to hugs are to blame for the recent shooting slump.
Here are some of the recent leads from national pieces and broadcasts about the decline of the Pacers:
- “Indiana Pacers team president Larry Bird was only looking to tie up a few loose ends. He may have pulled one too many strings, though, and now the whole thing is unraveling.” Bleacher Report, April 1.
- “I think Indiana is going to have trouble getting out of round two. I am in the camp that there is something seriously wrong with this team…I really think the biggest issue…(is Lance Stephenson) getting snubbed from the all-star game was the beginning of the slide for this team.” Bill Simmons on SVP & Russillo
- “(Selfish offense) has been a problem for Indiana since February, and while no one will specify a name, it’s obvious that the person in question is All-Star Paul George. While Lance Stephenson occasionally pounds the ball, nobody handles or hoists the rock as much as George does. It is not a problem every night, though, and that is part of the problem.” David Aldridge, NBA.com in some statistically spurious analysis prompted by Roy Hibbert’s “Some selfish dudes in here,” quote.
According to Bob Kravitz’ column this morning on IndyStar.com, coach Frank Vogel told the team, “Guys should never air in-house stuff to the media.” That’s good advice. The media can be a beast, and feeding its hunger for great quotes is always a mistake.
Hibbert’s quote focused the narrative toward the selfishness angle until last night when the Pacers beat the Detroit Pistons 101-94. The formerly selfish guys in the midst of a collapse shot 49.4% and assisted on 61.5% of their field goals. George scored 27 points on 19 shots, grabbed 13 rebounds, and contributed seven assists – not so selfish all of a sudden.
The criticism of the Pacers after the game seven loss in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals was that they didn’t have a go-to offensive guy, so Paul George went to work to try to become that.
The numbers paint a slightly different picture of George’s supposed selfishness – in the first 20 games of the season, when the Pacers were 18-2 and no one was complaining, George took 368 shots (18.4 average) during a per game average of 36.6 minutes. In the last 20, when the Pacers are 10-10 and the train is reportedly off the track and careening down a ravine, George has taken 318 shots (15.9) in a slightly higher per game average of 36.85 minutes. Shooting 2.5 times less in virtually the same number of minutes is not evidence of selfishness.
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George has taken 19-or-more shots in a game 28 times this season. the Pacers are 20-8 in those games for a 71.7 winning percentage. Forty-eight times, he has shot 18-or-less. The Pacers are 33-15, winning 68.8% of those games.
Stephenson is a slightly different story. In the first 20 games of the season, he took 209 shots (10.5 per) and averaged five assists. In the last 20, he’s taken 227 shots (averaged 11,4) and averaged 3.2 assists.
When Stephenson takes 13 or more shots in a game, the Pacers are 13-9. When shooting 12-or-fewer times, the Pacers are 40-14. That’s a little more relevant, but not enough to draw a conclusion. Stephenson’s assists are a for better predictor for success. When he dishes five-or-more dimes, the Pacers are 28-4. When he tallies four-or-fewer, they are 24-18.
That doesn’t necessarily convert to an automatic judgment that Stephenson has turned self-centered. Prior to the all-star break, Stephenson averaged 5.1 assists. After, the number dropped to 3.5. That’s a relevant drop, but the Pacers haven’t shot as well either, and good passes leading to missed shots aren’t assists.
The far more likely cause of Hibbert’s frustration is the losing itself, and the most likely cause of the losing is the tired legs that worked extremely hard during the offseason, preseason, and first half of the regular season.
Part of the maturity of athletes and businesspeople is the understanding that grinding 20 hours per day may bear fruit in the short-term, but that pace is unsustainable, and causes a crash somewhere down the road.
The team-first ethos and laudable work ethic that caused fans to fall in love with this team is the most likely cause of the current rut in which the team in ensconced.
In March, the Pacers played 18 games (11 on the road) with a daunting five back-to-backs. For the duration of the regular season and playoffs, the Pacers won’t have a single back-to-back, and travel in the playoffs is quite manageable.
Watch for the legs to bounce back, smiles return to the Pacers’ faces, the race go down the wire with Miami for the #1 seed, and the Pacers to earn their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals regardless of where Game Seven against the Heat is played, if it’s necessary.
It’s not attitude, the Granger trade, the Bynum signing, selfishness, of Eddie White’s fashion flourishes. Basketball is about legs, and the Pacers are about to regain theirs. It’s the media’s job to manufacture drama, but fans don’t need to buy it. Sticking by the Pacers will pay off in June..