by Kent Sterling
There is an undeniable statistical likelihood that point differential determines success or failure, but because of the limited sample size represented by the 16-game season, it can be overcome for one year but almost never two.
Last year, the Colts were 9-1 in games settled by seven points or less.
There are two pieces of guidance I trust concerning the 2013 Colts. One is Bill Barnwell of grantland.com put together an excellent statistical analysis of teams that deviate significantly from what record their point differential predicts – and it’s not good news for Colts fans. The other is NFL defensive mastermind Rick Venturi, who talks about the men playing the game, rather than the numbers.